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Climate Change and Health Epidemiologic Methods
Dr. Dung PhungCentre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University
Climate Change & Health Risk
Global warming
Rising Temperature
More Extreme Weather
Increasing Air Pollution
Rising Sea Levels
• Mortality• Morbidity
Long-term effect Short-term effect
Climate Change and Health Risk
Climate Change and Health Risk
Climate Change and Health Risk
Climate Change and Health Risk
Climate Change and Health Risk
Epidemiologic Methods
• No limited
• The most common quantitative methods:• Time-series• Case-Crossover
• Measuring health risk associated with variation in climate change related factors
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME SERIES
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES
Special type of longitudinal study
Examine short-term relationship
Develop prediction model
Projecting future health risk
ExposureOutcomes
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES
Health outcomes (Yt) & Short-term variation in
Exposure factors (Xt)
Yt = f(Xt)
Example: Is there an association between day-to-day variation in ambient temperature and daily risk of hospitalization?
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES
Temperature
Hospitalization
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES
Data needs Health outcome (Yi): e.g. Daily mortality, hospital
admission, regular disease surveillance report Exposure variables (Xt): e.g. Temperature, humidity,
air pollutants Confounding variables: unusual events (influenza
outbreak, etc.), and others (seasonality, calendar effects, long-term trends)
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES Key considerations and steps in time-series analysis
• Plot of exposure variable(s) against time• Plot of outcome against time• Correlation matrix for exposure and outcome variables• Summary statistics for each variable• Summary of missing data in each variable• Regress time-series model
• Control for seasonality and long-term trend• Individual lag models and distributed lag model• Consider possible non-linear associations
• Model checking• Diagnostic plots based on deviance residuals• Multiple sensitivity analyses changing key modeling decisions
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES Key considerations and steps in time-series analysis
• Plot of exposure variable(s) against time• Plot of outcome against time
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES Key considerations and steps in time-series analysis
• Correlation matrix for exposure and outcome variables
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES Key considerations and steps in time-series analysis• Summary statistics for each variable
Epidemiologic Methods
Health outcome TemperatureHumidity
Rainfall
Function of time Day of a Week
TIME-SERIES Key considerations and steps in time-series analysis
• Time-series regression model
Method & Result
Time-series regression
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES Key considerations and steps in time-series analysis
• Model checking• Diagnostic plots based on deviance residuals
Epidemiologic Methods
TIME-SERIES
Advantages• Quantify short-term association between environmental exposures
and health outcomes;• Naturally avoid long-term change confounding factors
e.g. smoking habits, social class• Be able to control for long-term fluctuation (season) and time-varying
factors (temperature, humidity, influenza, day of the week) by regression analysis
Disadvantages• Require long time-span of data• Ecological fallacy• Can not control for individual-level risk factors
High Temperature & Risk of Hospitalization in The Mekong Delta
Multi-City
Dr. Dung Phung et al, 2016Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University
Background & Aim
• Highly vulnerable to climate change
• The air temperature increases up to 4°C from 2030-2100
• The sea level rises up to 1m by the 2100
• The rainfall increases from 0.3-8.8% by the period of 2020-2100 with wide variation through the region
• The floods are unusual patterns
• Increasing likelihood of extreme floods.
Examine the relationship between ambient temperature and risk of hospitalization in the multiple cities of the Mekong Delta Region
Method & Result
Time-series for city-specific effect
Method & Result
Meta-analysis for Regional effect by Gender and Age
Method & Result
Meta-analysis for Regional effect- delayed effect
Method & Result
Meta-regression for socio-economic effects
on temperature-hospitalization
relationship
Conclusion
• Effects of high temperature on hospitalization varied by provinces
• Significant effects of high temperature on all-cause, infectious and respiratory hospitalizations on Lag-0 day
• Females and elderly are likely more sensitive
• High population density and % of population with illiterate increase the temperature-hospitalization risk
Epidemiologic Methods
CASE-CROSSOVER
Epidemiologic Methods
CASE-CROSSOVER
Alternative approach for time-series
Special type of case-control study
Examine transient effects on the risk of acute health events
Exposed? Exposed?
Control period Risk period Health outcome
Epidemiologic Methods
CASE-CROSSOVER
Analysis likewise a matched case-control
a bc d
RiskPeriod
Exp.
No
Control
Exp. No
OR = b/c
Multi-variable Logistic regression to control for other factors
Epidemiologic Methods
CASE-CROSSOVER
Advantages• Applicable for a short time-span of data
• Comparing exposure levels for a given day (t) when health event occurs vs. level before (t-7) and after (t+7) the health event
• Allows to control for many individual factors (age, gender, smoking, etc.) because both case and control are the same person
Disadvantages• Seasonal and long-term trend is crudely controlled• Can not control for over-dispersion effectively• Not easy to determine number of strata for controls
The relationship between particulate air pollution and emergency hospital visits for
hypertension in Beijing, China
Yuming Guo et al, 2010School of Public Health, University of Queensland
Background & Aim
• Air pollution is a very serious issue for human health, particularly in urban areas in developing countries
• Research conducted in Beijing, China shows that about 47% of people have hypertension
• It is unknown whether particulate air pollution induces acute hypertension events in persons with preexisting hypertension
To analyze the relationship between ambient air pollution and EHVs for hypertension, and to discover whether a short-term increase in ambient air
pollution is associated with the onset of hypertension.
Methods
• Case-crossover design• Compare level of PM on exposed day with that of control days
• Data collection:• Emergency hospital admission • Weather factors: temperature, humidity• Air pollutants: PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2
• Data analysis:• Comparing PM level of case with 3 control within 28 days• Examining delayed effect of PM in 4 days using distributed lag model• Controlling for weather factors and other air pollutants
ResultsRelationship between PM and emergency hospital admissions due to hypertension
Results
Delayed effects of PM on emergency hypertension
Conclusions
Elevated concentrations of ambient particulate matter air pollutants were associated with a increase in the EHVs for hypertension in Beijing during 2007
The statistically significant two-day lag effects were found for both PM2.5 and PM10
The findings provide additional information about the health effects of air pollution in Beijing, China and may have implications for local environmental and public health
Thank You for Your Attention