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Climate change & the Severn Estuary- the IMCORE project
Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University
Introduction – topics• Overview of Interreg IVB IMCORE project
outputs
• Severn Estuary IMCORE programme progress & outputs
Interreg IVb IMCORE outputs
• website guidance
• e-learning
IMCORE - Innovative Management of Europe’s Changing Coastal Resource
The IMCORE adaptation website www.CoastalAdaptation.eu
• Practitioners’ “tried and tested” guidance on developing a coastal adaptation strategy
• Gives support & guidance
• Presented in a user friendly way with tips, videos & e-learning
www.CoastalAdaptation.eu
Going live end of
October ….
On-Line support e-learning
• Basic course - 16 slides – to inform senior mangers about
the need and process of developing an adaptation strategy
• Advanced course - 47 slides – for practitioners to gain insight
into the stages required to do an adaptation strategy
– follows the IMCORE process
– provides a guide to further, external resources
Severn Estuary IMCORE programme
IMCORE Severn Estuary Case StudyEnhancing the capacity for climate change adaptation in the Severn Estuary
• Improving the science base for planning
• Increasing awareness of climate change and adaptation options
• Creating IMCORE guidelines for adaptation for the Severn Estuary
Improving the science base for planning
Planners’ concerns:
• “…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”;
• “…flooding is our big concern…”;
• “…we have a small hamlet…really in danger…”;
• “…so much of our urban development is in very vulnerable locations...”
Improving the science base for planning
• In the last 12 months this has included:
– Severn Estuary Climate Change Research Advisory Group (SECCRAG) meeting
– State of Estuary Report
– Report Cards
Improving the science base for planning: SECCRAG• 5th Meeting Dec 2010
• Dr Hance Smith (Chair)
• Science progress updateincluding:
– Coastal Monitoring and remote sensing (Guy Schumann)
– Fisheries (Peter Henderson)
• Current developments & applications
including:
– Monitoring (updates from Plymouth Coastal Observatory & Wales Coastal Monitoring Centre)
– Somerset Coastal Pathfinder Project (Somerset County Council)
Improving the science base for planning: State of Estuary Report
• IMCORE support & contribution
• Report includes:– specific section on climate
change
– discussion of climate change under most key themes
Improving the science base for planning: Report Cards
• Easy-to-read summaries of Severn climate change science
• IMCORE Severn report cards– General climate change
implications– Sea level, storminess, wave
climate & storm surges– Rainfall events & projections
• Latest addition:– Coastal risk in the Bristol
Channel: a meteorological survey
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options
• In the last twelve months this has included:
– Education activities
– Scenario development & refinement
– Delphi survey
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options:
Education activities
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options:
Education activities
• Beacons & CCW funding
• Education pack
• Schools’ workshops
• Young persons’ policy document
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options:
Education activities
• Beacons YoCCo project– Website
– http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html
• Launch & media interest
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options: Scenario
development
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options: Scenario
development
Exploratory scenarios
Developed using aparticipatory process
Explore what could happen Consider many factors Complement traditional
predictive approaches
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options: Scenario
development
• workshops (Bristol & Cardiff)
• 34 carefully selected regional stakeholders
Global Adaptive
Riding the Dragon
An optimised progressive version of the present
Global Reactive
More is Less
A continuation of the worst of
the present
Dominant Global Resource
Dependence
Reactive Adaptive
Local Reactive
Little Britain
A resource starved, regionalized and fragmented
set of regions
•
Local Adaptive
Strong Local Roots
The new economic paradigm future - Prosperity without
Growth
SOCIAL
ECO
NO
MIC
Dominant Local Resource
Dependence
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options: Scenario refinement
• Post-workshop participation
• Expert review
• Local Authority workshops (Newport & Somerset)
Global Adaptive
Riding the Dragon
An optimised progressive version of the present
Global Reactive
More is Less
A continuation of the worst of
the present
Dominant Global Resource
Dependence
Reactive Adaptive
Local Reactive
Little Britain
A resource starved, regionalized and fragmented
set of regions
•
Local Adaptive
Strong Local Roots
The new economic paradigm future - Prosperity without
Growth
SOCIAL
ECO
NO
MIC
Dominant Local Resource
Dependence
What do YOU think?
Are the scenarios plausible?
Which would you prefer?
Is your preferred scenario achievable?
COMPLETE THE RESPONSE
FORM (IMCORE DISPLAY)
Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options: Delphi Survey
• Focused on planning & climate change for Local Planning Authorities
• Built on IMCORE planning reports
• 42 respondents
• Identified key concerns & possible adaptation options for planning community
Severn guidelines for adaptation
Developing the Severn guidelines
• Informed by ALL previous IMCORE activities & outputs:
– planning & Delphi surveys
– scenario development
– review of existing guidelines on climate change, SMP and flood risk for local authorities
The Severn guidelines - contents
IntroductionFuture climate change
Summary of the scienceClimate change impacts
Including scenarios & related issues Responding to the impacts of climate
changeActions to cope with future scenarios Tools for responding to climate change
Ways forwardRecommendations
Final IMCORE
Severn
Workshop
Cardiff 10
October
Thank you / diolch yn fawr!
IMCORE adaptation website
www.CoastalAdaptation.eu
SEP IMCORE website
http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/imcore.html
Beacons Young People’s Climate Change Forum
http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html
Dr Rhoda Ballinger [email protected]
State of Estuary Report:
pre-launch
