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“The Family History World in 10 Years Time” - This talk looks in the crystal ball to discuss changing research trends, a changing audience (have you noticed that today's genealogists are younger than they used to be?) and a look at changes being made now by “the cloud” and the growth of handheld devices that are “online all the time” as it affects genealogy.
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The Family History World in 10 Years Time
The Family History World in 10 Years Time
By Dick EastmanBy Dick Eastman
Today’s Powerpoint slides are available at:
http://www.eogn.com/handouts/10years
Introduction
History
The Present
The Future
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Introduction
History
Genealogy0.5
•Original records•Compiled Sources (typically without source citations)•Elitism (everyone looking for a royal connection)•No microfilm, no microfiche, no easy travel, no archives open at 2 AM•Typically expensive•A few genealogy societies were created, mostly for elitists
Up to about 1920
History
Genealogy1.0
Genealogy0.5
1920 - 1980
•Microfilming started in 1930s, a remarkable improvement•Growth of genealogy societies•Popular books, especially Alex Haley’s “Roots” in the 1960s, which became a #1 best seller•Reference books, sources
History
Genealogy1.0
Genealogy0.5
Genealogy2.0
1980 - 2012
•Digital records•Social Networking•Television programs•Includes traditional genealogists and an expanded new audience
Genealogy1.0
Genealogy3.0
Genealogy0.5
Genealogy2.0
Genealogy1.0
Genealogy3.0
Genealogy0.5
Genealogy2.0
2013 and Beyond
The PresentThe Present
The PresentThe Present
Impossible to determine but...• over 500 million names on
FamilySearch.org• 6 billion on Ancestry.com• And many more on other genealogy
web sites
How many records are online today?
The PresentThe Present
• Plus:– Google Books– Twitter– Facebook– Wikis (WeRelate.org) – Bloggers– And more…
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
2013 – 2023
Tough to predict, but we can expect:
More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
New and better software
A changing audience
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In the Next 10 Years
More records online1
More records online1
No surprises here!
Records will be online for better access
…and for records preservation
Mostly images of original records
…with transcriptions
More records online1
Will include…
Most all present-day microfilms, books, and paper records from local records offices
Archives of email
Archives of Facebook and other online sites
More records online1
These will fulfill two purposes:
1. Records for future genealogists
2. Archival copies for government offices
More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
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• All shared information is moving to the cloud.
• All shared information is moving to the cloud.
• Access is available anytime, anywhere.
• From a desktop computer, from a laptop computer, from a tablet, from a smartphone, or from any future devices not yet invented.
More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
New and Better Software
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2
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• New and better software
• Cloud-based
• Collaborative
• Works on any platform: Windows, Macintosh, Linux, Apple’s iOS, Android, and future products
More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
New and Better Software
A changing audience
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• The genealogy audience is getting younger!
• Driven by technology?
• Driven by television and other mass media
• Today, genealogy is cool!
• This future audience has different interests:
• Most future genealogists will be interested in stories of certain ancestors, may not care to know all ancestors• Probably won't care about pedigree charts
• This future audience has different interests:
• More interested in individuals’ stories
• Not classified by age, gender, or nationality
• May not join societies
• In one recent example of a group of college-aged genealogists/historians:
• 40% were born outside the country
• 90% had one or more grandparents born outside the country
• Census records are useless to them!
• In one recent example of a group of college-aged genealogists/historians:
• 50% classified themselves as non-white
• 50% did not share a surname with their fathers!
We need global resources (India, Pakistan, Jamaica, Nigeria, etc)
Changing TechnologyDictates the Access to
Records of Interest
• According to Hewlett-Packard Sr. VP, Shane Robison in his keynote address at RootsTech2011:
• Sales of desktop computers are declining worldwide every year• Sales of laptop computers are slowly climbing every year
• Sales of tablet & handheld computers are skyrocketing!
• Within 5 years, 60% of all Internet access worldwide will be by people who do not own a “regular” computer.
• That percentage is expected to increase further
Digitize Everything!Digitize Everything!
• Tomorrow’s genealogy world:
• Many more records online
• Different demographics of genealogists
• Many do not share surnames with fathers
How will your society serve
this audience?
To forecast the next 10 years:To forecast the next 10 years:
Traditional libraries will cease to exist
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• Within ten years, all of today’s books will all be digitized and made available to everyone at any time, anywhere. In many cases, a small fee will be charged.
• That is ALL of today’s books. Travel to distant libraries will be unnecessary.
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• Libraries will be available on tablet computers, cell phones, laptop computers, desktop computers, and on technology we have not yet invented
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• “Libraries” will be online, open 24 hours a day/7 days a week, available to everyone in the world with an Internet connection (which will be most everyone)
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• Societies MAY play a larger role than ever in providing information about local historical topics and residents.
• Societies will be able to derive revenue from online publishing, the same as in traditional publishing on paper.
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• Individuals will also play a major role in making records available via electronic libraries.
• Many “cottage industries” will spring up to provide informationof interest to others.
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• As to your genealogy information:
– Make it available in digital format
– Share it with others
– Make numerous backups!
A Look at the FutureA Look at the Future
• Properly cared for, the information you save can be preserved for centuries
www.eogn.com
Today’s Powerpoint slides are available at:
http://www.eogn.com/handouts/10years
