Integrated and sustainable water management of Red-Thai Binh rivers system under change

Integrated and sustainable water management of Red-Thai Binh rivers system under change

M, Giuliani1, D. Anghileri2, A. Castelletti1,2, E. Mason1, M. Micotti1, R. Soncini-Sessa1, E. Weber1

1. Dept. Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering - Hydroinformatics Lab, Politecnico di Milano

2. Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich

The Red-Thai Binh rivers system

VIETNAM

CHINA

LAOS

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

Catchment area = 169,000 km2

• 51% in Vietnam• 48% in China• 1% in Laos

Hanoi 6.5 million people living in the metropolitan area, 20 million in the delta

Hanoi

Vietnam: a fast developing country

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

years

GDP

(billi

on U

SD)

agricultureindustryservice

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201272

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

popu

latio

n (m

illion

inha

bita

nts)

Three major rivers

HanoiDa River

Thao River

Lo RiverDelta

Sontay

The Red River basin

HanoiDa River

Thao River

Lo RiverDelta

SontayJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20x 10

3flow

(m

3/s

)

Historical discharge at Sontay

Hanoi citySector 1: Flood in Hanoi

Sector 2: Delta Water Supply

rice cultivation in the Red River delta

Sector 2: Delta Water Supply

rice cultivation in the Red River deltaJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

wate

r dem

and

(m3 /s)

cultivation (58%)

livestocks (<1%)

fishery (29%)

urban supply (2%)industry (1%)

rural supply (2%)environment (7%)

Sector 3: Hydropower

SonLa reservoir

Sector 3: Hydropower

SonLa reservoir

Hanoi

Da River

Thao River

Lo River

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120510152025303540455055

years

billio

n GW

h

hydropower (10%)

coal (20%)

natural gas (11%)

oil (23%)

biomass (36%)

National hydropower production

HoaBinh (1995)10.9 km3 - 1920 MW

TuyenQuang (2008)2.5 km3 - 342 MW

SonLa (2012)12.5 km3 - 2400 MW

Unexpected negative feedbacks

The massive storage capacity of the upstream reservoirs and sand mining activities along the river are producing geomorphological alteration downstream.

Inlets of irrigation canalsSand mining

Long Bien Bridge in Hanoi

Research question

Hanoi

Delta

SonLa12.5 km3 - 2400 MW

HoaBinh10.9 km3 - 1920 MW

TuyenQuang2.5 km3 - 342 MW

How can we design water management strategies that meet primary needs while ensuring long-term sustainability?

Flood in Hanoi

Delta Water Supply

Hydropower

Methodology

1. Design operating policies over historical conditions

can we understand the tradeoffs and support stakeholders negotiations?

2. Re-evaluate the solutions under a changing climate

how do the policies perform in the medium and long term?

3. Re-evaluate the solutions under different climatic projections

how much uncertainty affects future operation?

4. Identify adaptation strategies

1. Design operating policies over historical conditions

how to manage multiple objectives and promote negotiation to identify compromise solutions?

how to run the optimization given the complexity of the system (i.e. daily regulation of 3 reservoirs, 5 states, 117 decision variables)?

Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (Giuliani et al. 2014)

rt = fθ(It) searching for the best policy in multiple objectives

Giuliani et al. (2014), Curses, tradeoffs, and scalable management: advancing evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search to improve reservoir operations, JWRPM in review

2. Re-evaluate the solutions under a changing climate

Top-down scenario based impact assessment (Anghileri et al. 2011)

Socio-techno-economic scenarios and associated emssions

A1B from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC 2000)

Models of the main physical processes at the global scale HadCM3 climate model

Models at higher resolution nested within GCMs, adding regional forcings

PRECIS climate model

Simulation of the hydrology at the river basin scale statistical downscaling + HBV

Impacts on different stakeholders given the current water management

Historical policies + Hydropower, Delta supply,

Flooding

Anghileri et al. (2011), A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale, HESS

source: Wilby and Dessai (2010), Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather

3. Re-evaluate the solutions under different climatic projections

Non-dominated policy over history

Hydropowerenergy de!cit

Flood in Hanoidamages

Delta Water Supplywater de!cit

15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

The study required ~18,000 computing hours using parallel computation on the Cornell University cluster, along with DecisionVis software for the analysis of the results.Ideal Solution





15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

The study required ~18,000 computing hours using parallel computation on the Cornell University cluster, along with DecisionVis software for the analysis of the results.Ideal Solution

The study required ~18,000 computing hours using parallel computation on the Cornell University cluster, along with DecisionVis software for the analysis of the results.





15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

Ideal Solution

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3x 104

0

5

10

15




16.5 487

Ideal Solution

How the policies perform in the medium and long term?




15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

1990-2010

Ideal Solution


1990-2010




15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

2040-2060

Ideal Solution


1990-2010 2040-2060




15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

2080-2100

Future is not stationary

Ideal Solution

Reservoir operation amplifies climate change impacts




15.37

16,798

59,568

1,100

16.5

Median

1990-2010

2080-2100

difference

Flow Hydropower Flood in Hanoi Delta Water Supply

866 2.36 11,909 143.2

917 3.45 43,769 251.4

5% 45% 75% 267%

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00

5

10

15

20

25 x 103

probability of exceedence

flow

(m3 /s

)

1990-20102080-2100

Flow duration curve of Da River

Ideal Solution

Perturbed physics ensembles

5 different parameterization of the same GCM

32

16,798

245,531

1,742

16.5


Flooddamages


Standard scenario

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

Ideal Solution

32

16,798

245,531

1,742

16.5


Flooddamages


Dry scenario

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

Ideal Solution

32

16,798

245,531

1,742

16.5


Flooddamages


Wet scenario

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

Ideal Solution

32

16,798

245,531

1,742

16.5


Flooddamages


Temperature scenarios

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

Ideal Solution

32

16,798

245,531

1,742

16.5


Flooddamages


Tradeoffs change with the scenarios

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5x 105

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



Ideal Solution

Tradeoffs change with the scenarios

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

0

5

10

15

20

25LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

32

16,798

245,531

1,742

16.5


Flooddamages


Uncertainty challenges decision-making support

LEGEND

history

Q0

Q10 (dry)

Q11 (wet)

Q3 (small T)

Q13 (large T)

Qens (avg)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5x 105

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



compromise solution

Ideal Solution

Conclusions and further research

• EMODPS successfully designed water management policies addressing tradeoffs and promoting stakeholders negotiation.

• Top-down climate change assessment improved our understanding of the vulnerabilities of the system, which are amplified by reservoir operations and depend on the considered future, nonstationary, uncertain scenarios.

Further research will focus on introducing socio-economic scenarios, running robust optimization, and switching to a bottom-up approach for supporting the design of adaptation strategies,

The Project is funded by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affair as part of its development cooperation program.

thank you

Matteo [email protected]

http://giuliani.faculty.polimi.it

mailto:[email protected]


