Del2infinity Energy Consulting Private Limited

ACCURATE AND TIMELY INSIGHTSINTO VARIABLE WIND & SOLAR

ENERGYDEL2INFINITY ENERGY CONSULTING PRIVATE LIMITED

Abhik Kumar Das, Director Email [email protected] / [email protected]

Mobile +917760989341www.del2infinity.xyz

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.del2infinity.xyz/

Wind & Solar Power Forecasting Regulation

The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), India hasfinalized the mechanism for Forecasting, Scheduling and DeviationSettlement of wind & solar projects at Inter-State level.

The CERC has issued the Indian Electricity Grid Code (ThirdAmendment) Regulations, 2015 (IEGC) and Deviation SettlementMechanism and related matters (Second Amendment), Regulations2015 (DSMR) respectively.

The mechanism is applicable from November 1, 2015.

|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | [email protected] ||

Wind & Solar Power Forecasting Regulation

Key features of the mechanism: The mechanism shall be applicable to Wind and Solar generators. Scheduling of wind generators have been made mandatory for

aggregated capacity of 50 MW and above. The maximum number of revisions has been increased from 8 to 16. A new forecast error computation formula has been formulated, which

is: =100*(Scheduled Generation-Actual Generation)/Available Capacity. The penalties for deviation have been computed as per Power Purchase

Agreements and shall be levied for deviation beyond +/-15%


Source: http://www.cercind.gov.in/2015/regulation/SOR7.pdf

Forecast Deviation Charge

http://www.cercind.gov.in/2015/regulation/SOR7.pdf

REVENUE LOSS CAN BE UP TO30% WITHOUT ‘GOOD’ WIND & SOLAR ENERGY

FORECAST !


Del2infinity is founded by Abhik Kumar Das (Dual Degree, B. Tech & M. Tech (IIT KGP),2005) Dipak Kumar Mukherjee (B.E.(JU),1967)

Del2infinity works in the domain of Energy Analytics in India & EU Del2infinity serves AAAS (Analytics As A Service) to its different clients in India &

abroad An integrated and solution oriented approach for every energy analytics

problems Del2infinity’s Wind Energy Forecasting solution is capable of doing 24 hours

day ahead wind power forecast with maximum 16 revisions and is testedover 2500 MW of Wind Farm`.

Del2infinity’s Solar Energy Forecasting solution is capable of doing 24 hoursday ahead Solar Energy forecast with maximum 16 revisions and is testedover 200 MW of Solar Farm .

ACCURATE WIND & SOLAR ENERGY FORECASTING & SCHEDULING IS NO MORE EXPENSIVE WITHDEL2INFINITY ENERGY CONSULTING PRIVATE LIMITED

Del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

Del2infinity & it’s PhilosophyOur approach

Client focussed and solution oriented approach keeping in view the commercial objectivesof the assignment;

Global reach through close working relationships with reputed global consulting firms; Focus on industry expertise as well as traditional and emerging service lines; Single point contact for clients; To best serve its clients and to build and maintain long-term relationship; Timely and commercially viable solution to complex energy domains; Affordable and competitive pricing

Our People Extensive experience in advising domestic and international clients engaged in energy

sectors Combination of technical excellence and keen understanding of industry and service lines

to provide practical and solutions oriented advice Backed by a dedicated staff and cutting edge business tools and infrastructure Firm Grasp of commercial fundamentals


Del2infinity Solution for Wind & Solar Energy

Automatically delivers the wind & solar power forecasts via a customizable web-based / FTP-based platform

Proprietary algorithm based on statistical machine learning and pattern recognition

Tested for over 2,500 MW installed Wind capacity and 200 MW Solar capacity inIndia


Why del2infinity Forecasting?

India-specific product based on guidelines prescribed by theCentral Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)

Does not rely on traditional resource-intensive forecastingmethods

High Accuracy No site installment

Protect Revenue Losses, up to 30%!


Real Time Wind Power Data (<15 min Resolution)

Real Time Wind Speed & Direction data (<15 min Resolution)

Other Weather Parameters(If available)

NWP 1

NWP 2

NWP 3

Σ

Historical Wind Power & Speed Data (<15 min Resolution)

Σ

Wind Power Forecast(in 15 min resolution

as per the latest guidelines prescribed by Central Electricity

Regulatory Commission (CERC))

1. Plant Location2. Turbine Information3. Curtailment Information

del2infinityP2P

del2infinityS2P

INPUT

Del2

SYSTEM

OUTPUT

Del2infinity Wind Forecast System

|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | |

[email protected] ||

Real Time

Solar Power

Data (<15 min

Resolution)

Other Weather

Parameters

(If available)

NWP 1

NWP 2

Σ

Historical Solar

Power Data

(<15 min

Resolution)

Σ

Solar Power Forecast

(in 15 min resolution as

per the latest guidelines

prescribed by Central

Electricity Regulatory

Commission (CERC))

1. Plant Location

2. Plant Layout2. Panel Information

3. Curtailment

Information

del2infinity

P2P

I

N

P

U

T

Del2

S

Y

S

T

E

M

O

U

T

P

U

T

Del2infinity Solar Forecast System

del2infinity

DNI/GHI

Power Tx

Sample Output

|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | [email protected] || Screenshot of Wind Power Scheduling

MARKET VALIDATION


Users: Energy Generators and Grid Operators2,765 MW, till date (& going on)

Successfully deployed for renewable energy industry in India

“The forecasting of del2infinity is the best among the vendors we areworking with in terms of accuracy”

–Ramesh Kumar, Manager, Performance Monitoring at Mytrah Energy (India) Limited

Del2infinity & Accuracy


Fig.: Screenshot of 1- Week Forecast for a 25 MW Wind Farm with +/- 15% error zone display (all calculations based on CERC’s latest guidelines)

In 95% of Time-blocks, forecast power is in +/-15% with 16revisions tested over total 2.5 GW installed wind capacity

Forecasting Performance Analysis


0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Instances of wind powerforecast being within +/- 30%(old regulation as acomparative purpose only, 8revision)

Fig.: a) Average wind speed vs forecast wind speed b)Error margin of Wind speed vs Probability of error in forecast without revision (R0)

Aggregated Wind Power Forecasting( Sample: Karnataka state)


Low wind season

High wind season

Del2infinity Forecasting Accuracy(aggregated wind power)


Accuracy: Normalized Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for different forecast horizons (hours)

Forecast Accuracy in Wind Forecast (16 revision)

Absolute Error Margin Probability (%)

<10% 89.41 +/- 5

< 15% 93.36 +/- 5

15%-25% 4.37 +/- 5

25%-35% 1.16 +/- 5

>35% 1.11 +/- 5


Other Analytics Service : DNI Predictor for Solar Forecast

Fig.: Actual and Forecast DNI value at R0 forecast


Other Analytics Service : Load Forecast


Other Analytics Service : Power Analytics


Enjoy a free trial of del2infinity Team Support Services to see howoutstanding Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting service can reap rewards foryour company.

For limited Free Trials* Write to us at [email protected]

*Terms & Conditions Applicable

Del2infinity Energy Consulting Private Limited Kolkata | Bangalore | New Delhi

[email protected]




Thank you del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

Kolkata | Bangalore | New Delhiwww.del2infinity.xyz || [email protected]

ACCURATE WIND & SOLAR POWER FORECASTING & SCHEDULING IS NO MORE EXPENSIVE with

Del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

For Business enquiriesDipak Kumar Mukherjee, Director

Email [email protected] +919339000123

For Technical enquiriesAbhik Kumar Das, Director

Email [email protected] +917760989341





Engineering

Del2infinity Energy Consulting Private Limited