City of the Future - A Holistic Approach to Understand Urban Complexity

City of the Future A Holistic Approach to Understand

Urban Complexity

— Dominik P.H. Kalisch, PhD

Source:A

dam

Col

e, M

aggi

e St

arba

rd /

NPR

, 201

1

Projected Population Growth of World Cities per Hour

Source: The Design Surgent, 2012

Innovations as Answers for Society’s Demands

1750 205020001950190018501800

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800

Clothing

Early Industrialization

Steam Engine Textile Industry

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800

Clothing Transportation

Early Industrialization


Steel Train

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800

Clothing TransportationMass

Consumption

Early Industrialization Late Industrialization


Steel Train

Electricity Chemistry

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800

Clothing TransportationIndividual Mobility

Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Services

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800


Information & Communication

Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Information Technology

Services Globalization

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800



Mass Consumption

Health Life Quality

Early Industrialization Late Industrialization Life Sciences


Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology

Green EnergyInformation Technology


Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800



Mass Consumption

Health Life Quality



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology


HumanNature

HumanNature

Technology


Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow

Innovation

Era

Demand


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow

Expanded Cities



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow

Expanded Cities First Mega Cities



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow

Expanded Cities First Mega Cities Factory Settlements



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow

Expanded Cities First Mega Cities Factory Settlements Suburban Cities



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow

Expanded Cities First Mega Cities Factory Settlements Suburban Cities New York City



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality


1750 205020001950190018501800

Qu

elle

: nac

h L

eo A

. Nefi

od

ow?

Expanded Cities First Mega Cities Factory Settlements Suburban Cities New York City



Mass Consumption



Steel Train


CarPetrochemistry

Biotechnology



Innovation

Era

DemandHealth

Life Quality

Revolutionary Changes

MarketsEnergy Building Mobility Working Information

Product to UserStandardization IndividualCentral Industrialization Linear


MarketsEnergy Building Mobility Working Information

Real-timeKnowledge-based Integrated

Product to User

Self sustained

Standardization

Cloud mobility

Individual

Decentralized

Central Industrialization Linear


Technology Change

Technology Change

2005

Source: Luca Bruno, 2005

Technology Change

2005 2013

Source: Luca Bruno, 2005 Source: Michael Sohn, 2013

INVESTMENTneeds in urban infrastructure

$ 300 trillionby 2030Booz & Company 2010

SUSTAINABLEcities as vision

• Maximum livability for all inhabitants

• Sustainable urban systems

• Minimal ecological footprint

INNOVATIONfor the city of tomorrow

• New markets in urban systems

• Identifying upcoming technology

• Conceive new products, systems and business models

Urban System

Urban System

Urban Sub-Systems

Urban System

Impact factors

Urban Sub-Systems

Urban System

Impact factors

Urban Sub-Systems

Key Factors for Sustainable Cities

Key factor 1

Urban System

Impact factors

Urban Sub-Systems

Key Factors for Sustainable Cities

Key factor 1

Key factor 2

Services

Security

Government

HealthEducation

Information and CommunicationTechnology

Urban Production

Nourishment

Environment andClimate

Transport and Logistics

Energy & Resource Infrastructure

Buildings

Mobility and Transportation

City Structure

Services

Security

Government

HealthEducation


Urban Production

Nourishment




Buildings


City Structure

Services

Security

Government

HealthEducation


Urban Production

Nourishment




Buildings


City Structure

Human and Lifestyle

by

Founding members of m:ci

New members of m:ci

New York

New YorkBerlin

New York Tokyo

Berlin

New York Tokyo

BerlinCopenhagen

New York Tokyo

BerlinCopenhagen Freiburg

New York Tokyo


Singapore

Sectors

Sectors Practice Examples

#1

#2

#n

#3


Analysis ofImpact factors

#1

#2

#n

Field research

#3



#1

#2

#n

Field research

#3

Evaluation ofInterfaces



#1

#2

#n

Field research

#3




#1

#2

#n

Field research

#3


Methods

Statistical Analysis




Methods

#1

#2

#n


Field research

#3




Methods

#1

#2

#n

Social Network Analysis


Field research

#3




Methods

#1

#2

#n


Objective Hermeneutic


Field research

#3




Methods Fields of Application

#1

#2

#n




Field of Application x

Field of Application y

Field of Application z

Field research

#3

ICT

Water

Transport

Buildings

Resilience

Energy

Incentives

Regulations

Education

Urban Planning

Image

R&D Tactics

Business Tactics

Organization Structure

Strategic Planning





#1

#2

#n







Field research

#3





#1

#2

#n







Field research

Outcome

#3





#1

#2

#n







Field research

Outcome

Technology

Processes

Structures

#3





#1

#2

#n







Field research

Outcome

Technology

Processes

Structures

Concepts

#3

ICT

Water

Transport

Buildings

Resilience

Energy

Incentives

Regulations

Education Urban Planning

Image

R&D Tactics

Business Tactics

Organization Structure

Strategic Planning

City System

New York CityLong-Term Thinking

for Resilience

Singapore Green Efficiency Labfor Asia

TokyoPPP for Sustainable

Development

FreiburgSmall GreenBottom-Up City

Copenhagen Livability and

Green Growth

BerlinThe InnovativeGerman Capital

Indirect Impact

Dir

ect

Impa

ct

y

x

?What is Smart

Which strategy makes the park safer?

Source:einmalumdieecke.blogspot.com, 2012 Source:Hustvedt, 2014

How to fight crime? Source:Andreas Solardo, 2014

Where to plant a tree?

Source:K

leen

and

Gre

en, 2

014

New York Tokyo


Singapore

New York Tokyo

Berlin






for Resilience



for Resilience



for Resilience



for Resilience


Development



for Resilience


Development



for Resilience


Development

What do all projects have in common?


✓ Using data and ICT to serve the citizens



✓ Building bridges to overcome gaps



✓ Building bridges to overcome gaps

✓ Using predictive analytics to makebetter decisions

”“The city of the futurewill be based on evidence,

not on assumptions.

2002 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20142012

Sociology, Education, PoliticsUniversity of Düsseldorf

Dr. Eng.Bauhaus-University Weimar

Dipl. Social Sciences (M. Sc.)University of Düsseldorf

Research AssociateDZA

Research AssociateIMIBE

Research FellowBauhaus-University Weimar

Head of Health and Infection ReportingState Office Brandenburg

Research ScientistFraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO

Visiting Research FellowNorthwestern University

Dominik P.H. KalischSocial Scientist

[email protected]

Dr.-Eng.

http://www.kalisch.biz

2015

Visiting Assistant ProfessorSchool of BusinessTrinity University

Visiting Assistant ProfessorShidler College of BusinessUniversity of Hawai’i at Manoa

Dipl. Social Education (M. Ed)University of Essen