Glacier Change and its Effects on

Alpine Runoff in the American West

Global Change and the World’s Mountains Perth September 28, 2010

Andrew G. Fountain1, Kristina Thorneycroft1, David Peterson2, and Dan Fagre3

1Portland State University, Portland, OR; 2US Forest Service, Seattle, WA; 3US Geological Survey, West Glacier, MT

Lilliput Glacier

US Forest Service lands National Park Service lands Glaciers

Glaciers in the American West 1 : 24,000

8303 perennial snow and ice features

688 km2 (266 miles2)

3079

141

1

1475

1778

1158

463

450

4.8

73.3

68.6

46.2

42.5

0.09

208 2.6

North Cascades

Sierra Nevada

Lewis Range, MT

Beartooth, MT Wind River, WY

CO

South Cascade Glacier, 1960

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Area (m)

Nu

mb

er

2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

Log Area (m2)

Distribution of Glacier Area 1958-1980

Lyell Glacier, east lobe, Basagic, 2006

August 14, 1907

August 2, 2003

G.K.Gilbert

Hassan Basagic

1907

2003

Darwin Glacier

Sierra Nevada

Kings Canyon Nat. Park

US Forest Service lands National Park Service lands Glaciers

66%

24%

30%

56%

40%

31%

Fraction of Glacier Area Lost since 1900

25%

46%

US Forest Service lands National Park Service lands Glaciers

66%

24%

30%

56%

40%

31%

Fraction of Glacier Area Lost since 1900

25%

46%

South Cascade Glacier, Fountain, 1984 South Cascade Glacier, Fountain, 1984

Area Change in Sierra Nevada Glaciers

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Are

a (

km

2)

Conness

Lyell West

Lyell East

Darw in

Goodard

Picket

Lilliput

Area Change in RMNP

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Are

a (

km

2) Andrew s

Tyndall

Sprague

Row e

Area Change in Olympic Range Glaciers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Are

a (

km

2)

Blue

Anderson

Constance

Eel

Mystery

Hoh

Area Change in Glacier National Park Glaciers

0

1

2

3

4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

Year

Are

a (

km

2)

Grinell

Sperry

Glacier Change Across the West Glacier

Olympic

Rocky Mtn

Yoseki

Climate Controls

on Glacier Change

Locations of glaciers with long time series

Loading:

PC1: 47%

PC2: 18%

Effects on Water Quality Electrical Conductivity

Water Temperature

Applies to point source variables

Does not apply to turbidity or suspended sediment

Area (km2) % Basin Coverage

1900 63.04 23.18%

1958 37.16 13.67%

1998 35.67 13.12%

2006 32.8 12.06%

Thunder Creek Basin Area: 271.9 km2

Mean Basin Elevation: 1768 m

Vancouver

Seattle

Portland

North Cascades, Washington

1900 2006

Hypothesized Changes in Water Quality Thunder Creek Basin

glaciers

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

cm p

er

mo

nth

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mas

s b

alan

ce (

m w

eq

)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Cu

mm

ula

tive

mas

s b

alan

ce

(m w

eq

)

-20

-10

0

10

20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

cm

per

mo

nth

c

m p

er

mo

nth

cm

per

mo

nth

cm

per

mo

nth

Aug- Sep

Precipitation

Aug- Sep

Runoff

Aug- Sep

Runoff - Precip

South Cascade Glacier

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

cm p

er

mo

nth

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mas

s b

alan

ce (

m w

eq

)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Cu

mm

ula

tive

mas

s b

alan

ce

(m w

eq

)

-20

-10

0

10

20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

cm

pe

r m

on

th

cm

pe

r m

on

th

cm

per

mo

nth

c

m p

er

mo

nth

Aug- Sep

Precipitation

Aug- Sep

Runoff

Aug- Sep

Runoff - Precip

South Cascade Glacier

Precipitation and Runoff in Thunder Creek Basin

Klawatti Glacier Thunder Creek Basin

Importance of Glaciers in the Pacific Northwest

Water Supply

Jeff Phillippe, 2008

Geologic Hazards debris flows outburst floods

Oregon Highway 35, Nov 7, 2006 Doug Jones

John Scurlock

Effects: Hazards

Conclusions

• Glacier recession, like elsewhere in the world has been substantial in the American West. The main driver of glacier shrinkage is warming air temperatures. • Glacier recession has probably affected water quality in terms of warmer stream temperatures and higher electrical conductivity. • Mass wastage of glaciers have contributed to stream flow in measurable ways and if glaciers continue to recede the water runoff will be substantially reduced. • In regions populated with stratovolcanoes, glacier recession will increase the potential of slope failures and resulting debris flows.