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Our Global Food System:Sustainability and the Next Food Revolution
Dr. Greg PillarAssistant Professor of
Environmental Science and Chemistry
Thrive.
The Food Situation…..
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ions
of
Und
erno
ursh
ed P
eopl
ein
Dev
elop
ing
Cou
ntrie
s
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
FAO, 2009
The Food Situation…..
less than $1.00 per daymore than $1.00 per day
12%88%
less than $2.00 per daymore than $2.00 per day
40%
60%
less than $10.00 per daymore than $10.00 per day
80%
20%
World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008
The Food Situation…..
FAO, 2008
FAO, 2009
The Food Situation…..
Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009
Year
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
US
Dol
lar
per
Ton
ne
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)Sorghum (US)
The Food Situation…..
www.standeyo.comwww.msnbc.comwww.usatoday.comwww.bbc.com
By Ariana Cubillos, AP
The Food Situation…..
The Challenges…..
Thrive.
Year
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Glo
bal h
uman
pop
ulat
ion
(bill
ions
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 billion1.6 billion
2.5 billion
6.0 billion
6.5 billion
2.5 people per second (80 million per year)
Challenge #1: - Population9.2 billion
Predicted
UN Population Division, 2009
Mackenzie, 2008Goldman Sachs, 2007
Global Demand
1979-1988
1988-1997
1997-2006
2006-2015
Ave
rage
ann
ual i
ncre
ase
(%)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
PREDICTED
Maize Wheat Rice
Ave
rage
ann
ual i
ncre
ase
(%)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 1967 - 19961997 - 2006
Mackenzie, 2008FAO-STAT, 2008
Global Supply
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld a
nd D
eman
d In
dexe
d to
196
5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5 Global Demand (Crop Product Consumption) Global Crop Yield
modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007
Global Supply & Demand….
Norman Borlaug(1914 – 2009)
Fossil Fuel Resources
Machines
Plant Nutrients& Amendments
Seed
WaterAgricultural Chemicals
Fertilization
Tillage
Seeding
Irrigation
Pest Control
Purchased Inputs Farm Production
Harvest &Storage
Solar EnergyPrecipitation
Carbon Dioxide
Challenge #2: “Modern” Agriculture
FAO, 2009Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009
Year
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
US
Dol
lar
per
Ton
ne
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pric
e ($
per
bar
rel)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)Sorghum (US)Crude Oil (US)
Year
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
US
Dol
lar
per
Ton
ne
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)Sorghum (US)
Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic
“The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it cares for its soil”-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Soil Degradation
17% 14%
46%
71%
49%77%
1.1 billion hectares1.0 billion hectares
0.20 billion hectares
0.38 billion hectares0.21 billion hectares
0.36 billion hectares
Land Use….
IndiaUnitedStates
Europe
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Central/SouthAmerica
China
Planted CropsTotal Arable, Rain-Irrigated Land World Soil Resources Report, 2000
Ecuador: The Ayme family of TingoFood expenditure for one week: $31.55 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
Challenge #3: Food Culture
United States: The Revis family of North CarolinaFood expenditure for one week: $341.98 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
http://libcom.orghttp://www.simonsenconsultingservices.comhttp://www.deltaflow.comhttp://blogs.princeton.edu
Corn
Feed55% Ethanol
30%
High fructoseCorn syrup
5%
Starch2%
Sweeteners2%
Cereals2%
Field corn surplusAlcohols
Sweet cornSeed4%
Total Annual U.S. Non-Export Corn Production: 10.5 billion bushels
National CornGrowers Association, 2008
1200 calories
875 calories
250 calories
170 calories
Walsh, 2009
Meat Production – Developing Countries
FAO-STAT, 2009Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Mill
ions
of
tonn
es
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Beef and BuffaloPigPoultry
Meat Production - Grain
Grain required (kg) to produce1 kg of protein
0 5 10 15 20 25
Beef
Pork
Eggs
Chicken
Milk
http://www.ces.purdue.edu
Meat Production - Water
Water required (kg) to produce 1 kg of protein
0 200 400 600 800
Beef
Milk
Pork
Chicken
Eggs
Gary Kazanjian – NY Times
Meat Production - Feedlots
www.factoryfarm.org
www.doveimaging.com
Challenge #4: The Environment
FAO, 2008
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005
Global Climate Change
Justin Mott, NY Times
Global Climate ChangeAu
stra
lian
Prod
uctio
n (m
illion
met
ric to
ns)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Wine GrapesRice
modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008
Amy Toensing
Are we approaching another food revolution?
Thrive.
Opportunity #1: Genetically Modified Foodhttp://www.american.com
http://www.macalester.edu
Flood tolerant rice (SUB1A)
Opportunity #2: Boost Production
modified from Mackenzie, 2008
Malawi
EthiopiaNigeria
UgandaMali
Mozambique
Yie
ld (
tonn
es p
er h
ecta
re)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Average National YieldPotential Yield (Plot Demonstrations)
Asia –Pacific
Latin America &Caribbean
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Developingcountries
High-incomecountries
Research and Development Spending
Modified from Pardey, Beintema, Dehmer and Wood, 2006
Ave
rage
ann
ual g
row
th (
%)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
121976 - 19811981 - 19911991 - 2000
Opportunity #3: Sustainable Agriculture
Smaller Farms (LOTS of them)
Justin Sullivan / Getty http://riotofreasons.blogspot.comhttp://greensgrow.org
Sustainable “Urban” Agriculture
http://www.verticalfarm.com/http://gliving.com http://greenbrooklyn.comhttp://activplace.com
Growing Farmers
Photos by John D. SimmonsElma C. Lomax Incubator Farm (Cabarrus County)
Opportunity #4: Food Sovereignty
http://www.panna.orghttp://www.irri.org
Von Braun & Meinzen-Dick, 2009
Selling Land Purchasing Land
“Land Grabbing”
http://www.organicfood-benefits.com/Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
Opportunity #5: Change the Culture
Local Food Policy Networks
Thank You!!
Online: http://www.pillarenvironmental.com
Twitter: PillarESci
Email: [email protected]
Thrive.
