Trends shaping education

TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION

Tracey Burns5 November 2014

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Trends Shaping Education

• Intention and purpose

– Inform strategic thinking

– Stimulate reflection about the future of education

• Aimed at broad audience

• NOT a statistical compendium nor a prescription for policy

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Spotlights

Exploring specific trends and their link to education

• Just released: No 5: New technologies

• Next issue: No 6: Modern Families (end 2014)

• Preparation of the next volume of Trends Shaping Education starting early 2015

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Preparing the publication

• Research process – exploring interesting data

• To be included, data needs to be:

• Robust

• International

• Show a long-term trend

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Trends Shaping Education 2013

• Five thematic chapters– A global world– Living well– Labour and skill dynamics– Modern families– Infinite connection

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Trends Shaping Education 2013More diverse communities

Question:Which country had the largest stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population in 2010?

A.IsraelB.PolandC.Australia

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Source: World Bank (2012) World Databank.

More diverse communities

Stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population, 1960, 1985 and 2010

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Trends Shaping Education 2013Fit or fat?

Question:Women are typically recommended to consume about 2,000 calories a day and men 2,500. What’s the actual average daily intake in OECD countries?

A.3400 caloriesB.2400 caloriesC.4400 calories

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Source: Gapminder (2011), Data in Gapminder World: List of Indicators, online.

Fit or fat?

Average BMI of males and females in 1980, 1994 and 2008

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Overweight Range Normal Weight Range Underweight Range 1980 1994 2008

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Question:Voter turnout is a good measure of civic participation. Which OECD country has seen the largest decline in voter turnout between 1950-2010?

A.BelgiumB.TurkeyC.Poland

Fewer people engaged in their democracies

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Source: International IDEA (2011), Voter Turnout Database.

Fewer people engaged in their democracies

Parliamentary voter turnout, in 1950, 1980 and 2010

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Question:The median age of the world was just under 24 in 1950, according to UN estimates (in other words, as many people were aged below 24 as above it).

By 2100, the UN forecasts the median will be around what?

A. 28B. 36C. 42

Our populations are ageing

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Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.

Our populations are ageing

Median age of the population, in 1950, 2010 and 2100

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Question:Since 1970 the divorce rate has been climbing in all OECD countries. What has the marriage rate been doing?

A. RisingB. DecliningC. Staying the same

Love and marriage

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Source: OECD (2011), OECD Family Database.

Fewer married people

Annual number of marriages per 1 000 population, in 1970 and 2009

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Trends Shaping Education 2013Increasing engagement with online communities

Question:How long did it take Facebook to reach 1 billion active users?

A. 12 yearsB. 10 yearsC. 8 years

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Source: Facebook (2014), News Room: Key Facts and Timeline.

Increasing engagement with online communities

Number of active Facebook users (in millions), 2004-2014

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Question:In Belgium, what percentage of young people reported that they had been bullied online?

A. 6%B. 15%C. 23%

Cyber bullying: an emerging and troubling challenge

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Source: Livingstone, S., L. Haddon, A. Görzig, and K. Ólafsson (2011), EU Kids Online.

Cyber bullying: an emerging and troubling challenge

Percentage of children bullied online and offline, 2010E

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Bullied online Bullied, online or offline

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Questions for consideration• Are teachers equipped to incorporate the kind of

local diversity that results from greater immigration?

• Are graduates prepared with the necessary skills for successful international cooperation?

• What can schools do to aid well-being (e.g. teaching skills needed to manage one’s body, informing about risks of obesity) without overloading the curriculum?

• What can schools and universities do to foster civic literacy (e.g. voting)?

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Questions for consideration• What role should education play in meeting the

needs of older members of the population?

• Does education nurture the creativity necessary to be innovative?

• Does increasing diversity of family structures affect the nature of home-school relations?

• Should schools see social network sites as an opportunity to extend the learning process/experience beyond the classroom?

• What responsibilities do educators have in monitoring student’s time online during school hours?

Thank [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Ageing PopulationsGlobal Economic Integration

International inequality

Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage

Changing balance of global power

More satisfied with life?

Lower voter turnout

Skills mismatch

Women in the labour market and childbirth

More diverse families, generally smaller and with

older parents

Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet

A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies

Migration and mobility

Urban lifeObesity epidemic