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MEGA-TRENDS SHAPING
SOCIETIES AND IMPACTING
ON HIGHER EDUCATION
Dirk Van Damme
OECD/EDU/IMEP – @VanDammeEDU
2
Ageing Populations
Global Economic Integration
International
inequality
Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage
Changing balance of global power
More satisfied with life?
Lower voter turnout
Skills mismatch
Women in the labour market
and childbirth
More diverse families,
generally smaller and with
older parents
Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet
A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies
Migration and
mobility
Urban life
Obesity epidemic
Mega-trends…
GLOBALISATION
3
Question:
Starbucks was launched in 1971 in Pike Place Market in Seattle. It has since grown into a major multinational. How many countries does Starbucks currently operate in?
a. 35
b. 52
c. 67
Globalisation
4
Sources: H&M (2015), H&M Worldwide website; Inditex (2015), Our History, Inditex website; Tarzian, JoanMarie (2015), Santander Corporate Communication – International Media Relations; Starbucks (2015), Company Information, Starbucks website; Hoover, Joan (2015), Apple Investor Relations; Spencer, Graham (2015), Contributor, Macstories. 5
Global expansion of multinational companies
The global reach of five companies in food services, garments, banking, and
technology, 1988-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Num
ber
of
Countr
ies
Starbucks
Inditex
H&M
Apple
Migration
Global integration
Trade patterns
Environment
Harmonisation of values
Affluence and
inequality
Democracy and dual
nationalities
GLOBALISATION
6
7
Globalisation also generates inequalities and exclusion.
How strong is the backlash against globalisation among the excluded?
Global expansion & redistribution of qualificationsGlobal distribution of tertiary educated 25-34 y-olds in 2013 and 2030
8
9
United States, 13.7%
China, 17.8%
Russian Federation,
10.9%
Japan, 6.9%
India, 11.4%
Korea, 3.9%
Mexico, 3.0%France,
2.6%
Germany, 2.0%
United Kingdom,
2.9%
Indonesia, 4.3%
Spain, 2.2%
Canada, 2.1%
Brazil, 3.0%
Turkey, 1.7%
Other, 11.7%
Share in academic graduates 2010
United States43.2%
United Kingdom13.8%
Netherlands6.0%Germany
4.3%
Canada4.3%
Australia4.3%
Switzerland3.5%
France3.0%
Japan2.5%
Sweden2.6%
Korea2.2%
Hong Kong2.0%
Other8.4%
Share in academic excellenceTHEWUR 2012
Global distribution of academic graduates
and academic excellence
10
Globally connected networks in research
Global integration of qualifications?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ja
pa
n
Fin
land
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Sw
ede
n
Au
str
alia
No
rway
Fla
nd
ers
(B
elg
ium
)
Engla
nd (
UK
)
En
gla
nd
/N.…
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
OE
CD
avera
ge
Po
land
Ca
na
da
No
rth
ern
Ire
land
…
Au
str
ia
Ge
rma
ny
Ire
land
Fra
nce
De
nm
ark
Esto
nia
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
lic
Ko
rea
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Sp
ain
Ita
ly
Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education
11
Proportion of 25-64 year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational attainment of the population (2012)
DECREASING SECURITYINCREASING RISKS
12
13
Global risks interconnections map
Question:
Cybersecurity is perceived as an increasing threat and risk, but is also a booming business. How many certified cybersecurity professionals are there in the world?
a. 40,000
b. 80,000
c. 100,000
Cybersecurity
14
15
Number of certified individuals in
cybersecurity worldwide
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Nu
mb
er o
f in
div
idu
als
Source: OECD (2015) Digital Economy Outlook 2015 cited in OECD (2016), Trends Shaping Education 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2016-enNote: The International Information Systems Security Certification Consortium, otherwise known as (ISC)2, issues a range of cybersecurity certifications
16
Commodification of higher education as a risk
End of credentialism?
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012)17
Formal education vs skills
18
Formal education vs skills
19
Credentialism as social security?
20
21
New credentials: open badges, nano-
degrees, micro-credentials,etc.
SOCIAL INEQUALITIESSOCIAL EXCLUSION
22
Gini coefficients of income inequality, mid-1980s and
2013, or latest date available
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1985 2013 or latest
Increase Little change Decrease
23
Trends in real household incomes at the bottom, the
middle and the top, OECD average, 1985 = 1
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bottom 10% Bottom 40% middle 50-90% Top 10%
24
Globalization and global redistribution of income
(Branko Milanovic’s “elephant chart”)
25
Amount of money spent by US households on child
development
26
Average numeracy score by parent educational
background (PEB) and inequality
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
0.18 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38
Nu
mer
acy
sco
re
Inequality (Gini coefficient)
Low PEB Medium PEB High PEB
27
The engine of social mobility falters
Australia
Austria
CanadaDenmark
Estonia
FinlandFrance
Germany
IrelandItaly
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Spain
SwedenUnited States
Flanders (Belgium)
England/N. Ireland (United Kingdom)
Russian Federation*
Average
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
12345678910
Up
wa
rd m
ob
ilit
y
Odds ratio
inequality of opportunity
low educational mobility
inequality of opportunity
high educational mobility
equality of opportunity
high educational mobility
equality of opportunity
low educational mobility
28
MULTIDIMENSIONAL EXCLUSION
TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS
30
A Brave New World
Question:
We have now become adept multi-taskers, capable of doing many things online at the same time. On average, how many things do we tend to do online at once?
a. 6
b. 8
c. 10
31
Source: OECD (2014), Measuring the Digital Economy: A New Perspective.32
Online multi-tasking: more efficient or more distracted?
Average number of activities being performed online at the same time per
Internet user, 2009 and 2013.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Nu
mb
er o
f ac
tivi
ties
2009 2013
33
New technologies
Social networksDigital
divide
Information as power
Entrepreneurs
Cyberbullying
Cyber security
Biotechnology
Privacy
R&DA BRAVE NEW
WORLD
Qualitative changes in skills demand
Routine manualNonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)
34
Mismatch between skills supply and demand
35
WOMEN’S EMANCIPATION
36
Question:
On average across OECD countries, the number of managerial positions held by women has increased by 11% between 2000-2012. In which country has it increased most?
a. Italy
b. Chile
c. Luxembourg
Female leadership
37
Source: International Labour Organization (2015), Global Report, Women in Business and Management Gaining Momentum.
26.9
32.7
14.3
18
23.625.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% o
f fe
ma
le m
an
ag
er
s
2000 2012
%
More female managers
Percentage of managerial positions held by women in private and public sectors, 2000-2012
38
Female leadership
Source: World Bank and Inter-Parliamentary Union (2015).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jap
an
Hu
nga
ry
Turk
ey
Ire
lan
d
Ch
ile
Ko
rea,
Rep
.
Slo
vak
Rep
ub
lic
Esto
nia
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Gre
ece
Isra
el
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Po
lan
d
Can
ada
Au
stra
lia
Fran
ce
OEC
D a
vera
ge
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
New
Zea
lan
d
Swit
zerl
and
Po
rtu
gal
Ital
y
Au
stri
a
Slo
ven
ia
Ger
man
y
Me
xico
Net
her
lan
ds
De
nm
ark
Be
lgiu
m
No
rway
Ice
lan
d
Spai
n
Fin
lan
d
Swed
en
Women in national parliament
1990 2014
39
Women’s first marriage
Question:
In 1990, the average age for women’s first
marriage was 25. What is the average age now?
a. 28
b. 30
c. 32
40
Source: Eurostat (2015), Marriage and divorces data.
Marriage age is rising
Mean age at first marriage for men and women, 1990, 2000, and 2013.
41
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Ag
e
1990 2000 2013 1990 2000 2013
Women Men
42
Female graduation rates
Percentage of female graduates in tertiary levels of education (2014)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sw
ede
n
Co
sta
Ric
a
Slo
vak R
epub
lic
No
rwa
y
La
tvia
Czech R
epu
blic
Icela
nd
Arg
entina
Lithu
ania
South
Afr
ica
Slo
ven
ia
Belg
ium
Hu
nga
ry
Port
ug
al
Spain
De
nm
ark
Ca
nad
a
Ne
w Z
eala
nd
Isra
el
Fin
land
Austr
ia
Ita
ly
Austr
alia
EU
22 a
vera
ge
Lu
xe
mbo
urg
Co
lom
bia
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Saud
i A
rabia
OE
CD
avera
ge
Ne
therl
and
s
Un
ite
d K
ing
dom
Me
xic
o
Ch
ile
Indon
esia
Ch
ina
Turk
ey
India
Sw
itzerl
and
Germ
any
Japa
n
Bachelor’s or equivalent Doctoral or equivalent%
43
Women's earnings as a percentage of men's
earnings, tertiary graduates (2014)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ch
ile
Bra
zil
Isra
el
Slo
vak R
epub
lic
Me
xic
o
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Hu
nga
ry
Gre
ece
Kore
a
Austr
ia
Pola
nd
Esto
nia
Irela
nd
Czech R
epu
blic
Port
ug
al
Ca
nad
a
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Ita
ly
OE
CD
avera
ge
Ne
therl
and
s
EU
22 a
vera
ge
Ne
w Z
eala
nd
Co
lom
bia
No
rwa
y
Austr
alia
Lithu
ania
La
tvia
Un
ite
d K
ing
dom
Fin
land
De
nm
ark
Lu
xe
mbo
urg
Sw
itzerl
and
Spain
Belg
ium
Sw
ede
n
Slo
ven
ia
Turk
ey
Co
sta
Ric
a
%
WHAT DO THESE MEGA-TRENDS IMPLY FOR SKILLS IN THE FUTURE WORKPLACE?
44
Trends Affecting Future Skills Demand
45
