Trends and Scenarios in Agricultural Development

COLIN CHARTRES

International Water Management Institute

What is causing the world food crisis?

• Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization are transforming food consumption, production and markets (von Braun (2008)

• Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply shocks at a time of surging demand for feed, food and fuel have lead to drastic price increases

• Biofuel production has further impacted the situation and disproportionately affects the poor through price level and volatility effects

A WATER CRISIS?

• The underlying hypothesis is that water scarcity will be a predominant factor in future food cries

The question was asked as to whether we have enough water resources to grow enough food to meet future demand for food and biofuels?

The Comprehensive Assessment answered

No,

unless ….

We change the way we think and act on water issues.

KEY QUESTION

DRIVERS OF WATER DEMAND

What are the driving forces?

• Growing population

• Dietary change

• Urbanization

• Biofuel production

• Need for environmental water

• Climate change

i.e. similar to the food crisis

WE ALREADY INHABIT A WATER SCARCE WORLD

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production

Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)

the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining

SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON WATER AVAILABILITY

e.g. Rainfall and GDP growth in Ethiopia

Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

year

%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variability

GDP growth

Ag GDP growth

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

Nat

ion

al r

ain

fall

in

dex

: V

aria

tio

n f

rom

tre

nd

(m

m)

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

To

tal

cere

al p

rod

uct

ion

- V

aria

tio

n f

rom

tre

nd

('0

00 t

on

s)

National rainfall index

Cereal production

Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10 100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

me

at

co

ns

um

pti

on

(kg

/ca

p/y

r) Meat China

India

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10 100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

milk

co

ns

um

pti

on

(kg

/ca

p/y

r)

Milk

China

India USA

USA

Consumption and income 1961-2000

Water and land for biofuels now and 2030

irrigated

Million ha

Harvested area

irrigated

rain fed

rain fed

biofuels2003

2030

400 800 1200 1600

2000 4000 6000 8000

2003

2030

biofuelsirrigation

irrigation

directly from rain

directly from rain

Crop water consumption

km3

Water needs for biofuel production, but a word of caution …..

liters of ET Liters of Irrigation water

China 3800 2500

India 4100 3500

US 1750 300

Brazil 2250 200

Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with

baseline levels (%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

100019

11

1917

1923

1929

1935

1941

1947

1953

1959

1965

1971

1977

1983

1989

1995

2001

2004

Tot

al a

nnu

al in

flow

(G

L)

Annual inflow

1911–1974 (338 GL) 1975–1996 (177 GL) 1997–2004 (115 GL)

Source: WA Water Corporation.

CLIMATE CHANGE: a big uncertainty

INFLOWS INTO PERTH’s STORAGES

Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley, Victoria Australia

For recent climate and current development

• Last 10 years have seen a 11% and 26% reduction in rainfall and runoff.

• Translation of this into a developing country scenario could portend catastrophy

Temperature

Water for Food – 1 liter per calorie

Liters of Water

Daily Drinking Water 2 – 5 Liters of Water

Daily Household Use 20 – 500 Liters of Water

1kg of Grain 500 to 2,000 Liters of Evapotranspiration (ET)

Livestock products (meat, milk)

5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ET

2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water!

Sectoral water consumption is increasing due to increased demand

Demand will double in the next 40 years

Increasing groundwater usage is a water time bomb

% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes

No water scarcity

Approaching water scarcity

Water scarce

0% 60% 75% 100%

Water for food and feed today

Future water for food, CA scenario

Water for biofuels*

*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030

Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI).

Green solution with blue impacts!

SOLUTIONS?

REVITALIZE IRRIGATION

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

01960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species

How to avoid?

?

Water storage improves water and food security

“Irrigation” has dominated public investment in agriculture in Asia.

Very little water storage has been built in Africa.

Irrigated area is only 7% of arable land (3.7% in SSA).

Source: World Bank

WHAT CAN WE DO?

RETHINK STORAGE

• Renewed interest in storage infrastructure for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan Africa

• Explore wide range of options: large scale reservoirs, small village ponds, groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil moisture storage), virtual storage (food)

• Diversity of storage options within a basin

• Storage creation processes determine who benefits

• New hydropower schemes and their impacts will be inevitable

Public Health

FarmerLaborer

Consumer

Wastewater irrigation

Soil

Fodder

Ground water

Turn waste water into a valuable resource

LivestockMilk(Meat)

Rice Vegetables

Short term and Long term health impacts

REFORM WATER GOVERNANCE

• By demonstrating that evidence based policy and management works best

• By providing options for policies and institutional reform

• By improved determination of water rights• By better valuation and pricing of water that

protects the rights of the poor• By improved management systems that are

equitable and gender friendly

Demand continues to rise

Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

THEN WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER

Today

CA Scenario

Practices like today

CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade

CONCLUSIONS

• No doubt that we have a water crisis• Given current projections of food and water

demand we can possibly avert future food crises• Ensuring availability of water for agriculture is

vital, but requires major productivity increases and underpinning water reform

• The impacts of climate change are still uncertain, but investment in adaptation to CC will also be relevant to the impacts of the other drivers of water scarcity