Upload
seth-lewis
View
1.233
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
This was a catch-all "market analysis" presentation I put together in October 2008, based in part on some thinking of Jeff Jarvis regarding an emerging "press sphere," among other topics addressed here.
Citation preview
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Future of News(papers)A review of business models,
experiments, innovations, and more
Seth C. LewisSchool of Journalism, UT-Austin
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Overview
• State of the newspaper industry• Fundamental shift from print to online• Emerging forms of journalism• But, wait— show me the money!– Are these really profitable business models?– How should we restructure the newsroom?– Seeing a post-print future
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
State of theNews(paper) Industry
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
In a word …
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
UGLY
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Problem 1: Circulation
• For U.S. dailies, 50M — lowest level since 1946
• But population has doubled since then• So, newspaper penetration is half what it was– Then: 36 of 100 American adults bought paper– Today: 18 of 100
• Newspaper circulation should be 92 million
Newspaper circulation, revenue and market share figures from Alan Mutter, Jeff Jarvis, PEJ
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Falling for decades …
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
… but spiraling since 2003
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Problem 2: Revenue
• 2007: steepest decline in 60 years• Down 9.4% to $42 billion• “If you liked 2007, you’re going to love 2008”• Online salvation? Not yet …– Online ad revenue accounts for 7.5% of total
revenue, but declined by 14% in Q1-Q2 2008
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Problem 3: Market Value
• Overall– 11 top public newspaper companies down 50%
(or $50 billion!) since 2004
• McClatchy: down 95% since 2005• Lee: down 92% since 2004• NYTimes: down 75% since 2002• Gannett: down 65% since 2004• Gatehouse: virtually wiped out — down 97%
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
What’s happening this week
• Christian Science Monitor drops print
• Gannett: 10% workfoce cut
• More circulation woes (’07 to ‘08)– Avg: -5%– Atlanta: -13%!
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“The world needs journalism now more than ever.
We just don’t need paper.”
— NYTimes.com reader
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Fundamental shift:analog --> digital
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Economics of print to online
• Guiding principle: Rational choice theory– Vin Crosbie: It’s not just the Internet that’s killing
newspapers– Rather, it’s that choice has proliferated by a
magnitude of Google
• Information surplus (“data smog”)• Newspapers vs. all things interesting online
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Disrupting the news model
• Owned and controlled
• Centralized• One size fits all• One-way• “Perfection” as the
standard packageSource: Jeff Jarvis
• Never starts, never ends
• Transparency• Input and
collaboration• Powered by links• Enables networks
Product Process
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
New models for news
• Pros …– Hyperlocal coverage– Link model– Non-profit ventures– Narrow and deep
• Amateurs …– Citizen journalism– Crowdsourcing
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Bringing In the User:Emerging Forms of Journalism
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
What is user-generated content?
• Digital media content created and distributed by end-users formerly known as the audience
• Better put, it’s “stuff from us” • Takes many forms:– Blogs– Wikis– Social networking– Visual communication sharing (Flickr, YouTube)– And much more
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
UGC and Web 2.0: key characteristics
• Architecture: Web is the platform; distributed, open-source feel to the software
• Participation: End-users play key role in creating, rating and debating content
• Network effects: Value added as people use it• Dynamic content: Metadata, mashups, etc.• Rich user interface• Collectivity: The crowd knows more than any one
person individually
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Creating platforms, not content
• Now, it’s all about open — open-source, open standards, open to everyone. No gates.
• Web publishers create platforms and let users create the content
• From one-way to multi-way communication• From sealed-off information silos to empty
warehouses waiting to be filled with “stuff”
Source: Mark Briggs, “Journalism 2.0”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Rise of citizen media
• “In 2006, citizens made it clear that they wanted a voice. In 2007, more ways of doing that began to emerge and that voice became stronger. Now, 2008 looks to be the year the mainstream press tries to lure citizens toward creating the content within their own outlets.”
– State of the News Media 2008
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Example 1: Citizen Journalism
Seth Lewis • [email protected] Rosen, 2008
Jay Rosen’s definition
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
How does this work in practice?
• You write about a city council meeting on your blog
• Capture eyewitness moment with your digital camera and post to a news site
• Grab video of something newsy and post to YouTube
• In other words …– Create, augment, or fact-check media on their
own or in collaboration with others
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
How online news sites use citizen-J
Pros in charge Amateur control
Opening up to comments
Add-on reporter
Citizen bloghouse
Stand-alone citizen site; minimal editing
Hybrid: pro + citizen
Wiki-style
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Example 2: Crowdsourcing
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Key principles
• The crowd is dispersed• The crowd has a short attention span• The crowd is full of specialists• The crowd produces mostly crap• The crowd finds the best stuff
Source: “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe (2006)
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Crowdsourcing and Journalism
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Crowdsourcing, in journalism, is the use of a large group of readers to report a news story. It differs from traditional reporting in that the information collected is gathered not manually, by a reporter or team of reporters, but through some automated agent, such as a website.
Source: Robert Niles
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
A spectrum of input
• From the simple …– Reading documents (a la Dallas Morning News case)– Sending in photos (of polling places, for instance)
• … To the more challenging …– Researching and writing articles
• The point– The collective efforts of non-specialists can add up to
more than one expert individual– Dan Gillmor: “my readers know more than I do”
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
How it works
• Lend us your eyes• Help us gather data• Submit your photos/videos• The keys …– Keep it simple– Keep it directed– Provide an easy, automated interface
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Lending Us Your Eyes
• Dallas Morning News and the JFK files– “Given the volume, we haven't been able to review
most of the files. That's why were calling on you. Here's your chance to review never-seen-before materials related to the JFK assassination.”
• RocDocs– “We’re inviting you to help us be watchdogs”
• Work of TPM Muckraker
(Hat tip: JP Digital Digest)
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Gathering ‘everyday’ info
• WNYC– “Are you being gouged?”– Gas-guzzlers on the street
• GasBuddy• Problems at polling stations in Cincy?
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
And more
• Full articles written by users …– Example: NowPublic
• … or edited by users– Example: Wikinews
• Beyond journalism– Google Image Labeler– Amazon Mechanical Turk
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Like citizen journalism, but …
• … crowdsourcing is easier– Users are given bite-sized tasks to accomplish– Time commitment can be small
• Unlike more traditional notions of “citizen journalism,” crowdsourcing does not ask readers to become anything more than what they’ve always been: eyewitnesses to their daily lives.
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Is crowdsourcing the future?
• “The failure of one citizen journalism Web business after another this year ought to be showing news publishers that a business model based on readers doing reporters’ jobs for free isn’t working.” (Robert Niles)
• But be warned …– Open-source journalism is tough– You have get the division of labor just right
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Show me the money!(or, can any of these ventures pay for themselves?)
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Short answer:
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Not yet.
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Crossing the Chasm:From Print to Online Revenue
“It’s going to be really bloody, incredibly devastating. And I think
there are going to be a lot of major metros that don’t make it.”
— Mark Potts, recoveringjournalist.com
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Crossing the Chasm
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Crossing the Chasm
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Is there hope in innovation?
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Future Business Models
• New cost structures– Blow up the newsroom as we know it– Focus on efficiency, lowering fixed costs
• Adopt the network model– For ads and news content– Do what you do best, and link to the rest
• Public/non-profit financing• New “side-door” revenue (via data, services)
— See Jeff Jarvis’ presentation
Seth Lewis • [email protected]
Or, be like Google