The future growth of Cardiff and region: towards a sustainable urban extension

Professor John Punter

CPLAN

CPLAN Innovation and Engagement Seminar: 8 December 2010

‘to realise a plan, the effort is 50 per cent technical and 50 per cent political’

David Mackay, MBM Barcelona (quoted by Mark Pearson UDQ 113 p37)

Content

• Want to explore the future direction of Cardiff’s growth• Want to set out the scale of the housing problem and

implications for inter-generational inequity• Will argue that a half century of plans have identified the

problem and fudged the solution• Refute notion that we can export our housing to

regenerate the Valleys• Refute notion that green-field development is inherently

unsustainable• Make the case that positive planning can create a long

term sustainable solution for city and the region• Emphasise the need to create a planning process and

political consensus to underpin this

Housing numbers, types, locations

Cardiff’s dilemma part of a UK-wide crisis

• Housing supply lags behind household formation (240k pa req)• Housebuilders under-supply the market: social supply inadequate• Affordability crisis and 4.5 m wait for social housing• Many LPAs reducing housing allocations in face of NIMBYism• Social exclusion intensifying: first time buyers pay 10-12x income• Current recession

exacerbating crisis• LPAs cannot fund

infrastructure to plan ahead or reduce externalities

• National crisis: nationalcomplacency

• Nimbyism and inter-generational equity

Housebuilding 1951-2007

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rom

Data for Figure 10.1 Housebuilding completions:1,2 by sectorUnited Kingdom Privateenterprise

Data for Figure 10.1 Housebuilding completions:1,2 by sectorUnited Kingdom Registeredsociallandlords

Data for Figure 10.1 Housebuilding completions:1,2 by sectorUnited Kingdom Localauthorities

Data for Figure 10.1 Housebuilding completions:1,2 by sectorThousands Allcompletions

UK housebuilding 1951-2010

Cardiff’s 2009 LDP: an all-brownfield ‘solution’

• 27,442 homes required: 1,750 pa • Plan saw 79% apartments, 90% on brownfield land• Effectively no 3/4 bed housing: >50% demand• 16% affordable needed: 10% anticipated (306pa)• 9,756 on waiting list now: few will ever be accommodated

‘the evidence does not support the contention that the brownfield only strategy will deliver the number of houses and the amount of employment land required. Nor will it deliver family or affordable homes or the range or type of employment land and premises (Inspector’s Letter to Council 26-2-2010 para 82)

Planners warned Councillors that plan needed suburban allocation • Inspector noted insufficient employment land• Over concentrated and problematic sites• Transport provision not plan-led• Flood risk in S &E Cardiff affects employment sites

• 11% Wales household increase to 2033• Surprising 42% increase in Cardiff to 2033 • 59k increase in households 2006-2026 not 27k (LDP)• So need 2,950 units pa not 1,750• Demands a long term, strategic, greenfield solution • Households decreasing in size: 2.36 pp/hh 2.23• 69% increase in single persons: 55% in single parents• So significant apartment emphasis: ca 36% for 1-2 beds• But 87% supply 1-2 beds (almost all apartments) 2007 • 44% need 3bed and 23% 4bed: 1355 pa: 17% supply• Inequitable, discriminatory, inflexible, unsustainable

New growth projections increase the targetsWAG Statistical Directorate: 2008-2033 (2008 database)

Planning history

Buchanan’s alternatives for Cardiff’s growth 1966-2000: A city of 500,000

3 of his 6 prescient models of growth

1977 Structure Plan emphasised NE growth: 3000 homes short

Plans recognise the problem: Do not implement the solution

1983 Structure Plan prioritised Bay butretained Cardiff Gate + WIBP

Poorly planned: poor public transport: coarse grain of uses: car-oriented; poor walkability: disconnected green space: low biodiversity: ‘anyplace’ housebuilder layouts/designs

Pontprennau CC Local Plan1996

2001 UDP: NE and NW growth: 5000 homes short

Note proposal to restore rail link to Creigiau and Church Village

Note greenbelt protection given to St Fagans

Deposit Plan 2009: withdrawn March 2010Note ‘white land’: not protected: not allocated pre 2021

Obvious development options: or export all the family housing!

Cardiff LDP 2009:Constraints Map: flood risk constrains options

Regional issues

Must work in ways that spread prosperity ..in a coherent and low carbon way..key settlements as employment hubs with distinct identity..targeted affordable housing

Wales Spatial Plan 2004/2008: spreading prosperity:regenerate the Valleys through exporting housing?

SEWSPG allocations to 2021

Households % regional growth

Blaenau Gwent 4,280 3.9

Caerphilly 11,450 10.5

Cardiff 26,070 23.9

Merthyr Tydfil 4,900 4.5

RhonddaCTaff 17,300 15.9

Vale of Glamorgan 9,940 9.1

Rhonnda Cynon TaffLDP 201014,750 houses allocated

800 800

1275

1700

500

800

Llanharan

Llantrisant

Beddau

Creigiau

Llantwit Fadre

WIBP

Church Village

Church Village/Beddau: car dominated sprawl: New by-pass: long term plans for rail link to Pontyclun

Llantrisant: drive-in ‘Edge City’: identity? low carbon?

Caerphilly LDP2006-20218,625 homes

1673 dwellings

3127 dwellings

Valleys take the overspill but car commuting still 87%

400600

4002950

500

300

1500

400

800

373

674

140

Northern Valleys: major housing allocations in current LDPs

Importance of in-commuting to Cardiff: 2005/2007

Vale 17k: 5k outRCT 14k: 4k outC’philly 10k: 2k out

10% by rail87% by car (63% drivers)

Unsustainable

LDP 2014-2033 Options

Cardiff must respond properly to its housing needsSeeks economic growth: needs sustainable suburbs

Cardiff LDP Delivery Agreement1. Delivery Agreement approved 20102. First public conference held3. Assembling evidence base April 2010-February 20114. Preferred Strategy October 2010-June 2011

(vision and objectives: strategic options: strategic sites)5. Pre-Deposit consultation November-December 20116. Deposit of proposals January-November 20127. Alternative sites consultation March-April 20138. Submission of LDP (incl SAR, CIS etc) to WAG August 20139. Independent examination January-March 201410. Inspector’s Report August 201411. Adoption October 2014, then annual monitoring reports

Assembly elections May 2011: Local elections May 2012Political sensitivities and opportunism

Alternative sites consultation 2009: landowner/developer ambitions: Two long-standing large scale options in NE and NW, but latter offers longer term solution

North East Cardiff: Redrow/part WAG landca 4000 homes

Protects Lisvane, reservoirs, streamsGreen buffers on M4 and Nant GlandulasPotential energy efficiency homes (WAG)Traditional ‘high streets’: live work units Extensive employment areaMixed housing types: walkable servicesPublic transport? No bus-rail integration?

Earl of Plymouth Estates

Estate owns ca 80% of land within M4/PDR

Old style car dependenceNeeds re-planning

North West Cardiff: 2008 proposals: Phase 1 3,500 homes

A sustainable urban extension?

The landscape/ecology considerations

The transportation conundrum

The city and sub-regional connections

Biodiversity concerns to shape site planning

Source: CC Biodiversity Action Plan

Sustainability principles• Rapid transit served, regionally linked• Link medium-high density sub-centres• Walkable/cyclable local communities

• Compact development: 50-100 du/ha• Mixed housing tenure/types/affordability

• Low carbon homes: renewable energy• Integral CHP/waste recycling• Integral, accessible employment

• Generous green frame, biodiverse linear park system

• Sustainable drainage systems

• A public-private-community partnership• Participative ‘Enquiry by Design’ process• A Sustainable Design Code

• A national sustainable exemplar for Wales• A single landowner to provide continuity,

commitment and quality over 20 years

Hanham Hall: Barratts: Code 6

LDP Preferred Strategy 2008

Precedents

Participative process and mixed use/tenure scheme

Original scheme: old style Enquiry by Design, masterplan, code

Dwellings 3,700 6,400

Retail 700m2 13,320 sm

Business zero 70,850 m

Open space 52% 28%

Precedents: 1: Upton, Northampton

Upton

Precedent 2: Newcastle’s northern extension: shows the importance of testing alternative models with multiple criteria: linear solution (left) gave very high accessibility but required major investment in a new transit line: the cellular scheme (right) uses existing Metro stations,invades the greenbelt, but uses higher densities close to stations.

New sustainable suburb of Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

5,000 people, 600 jobs at 50 du/ha gross: 4 storeys maximum: no mass house builders Tram based: 65% walk/cycle: CHP supply / low energy throughout: Council Cttee + Agencies + Forum manage the development

3: Freiburg: continental exemplar

Conclusions

Conclusions

• Must ensure the LDP process develops a credible strategy• Publicly debate all the strategic growth options incl. post 2026• Build cross-party political consensus about long term housing

needs and the way of addressing it• Address social sustainability alongside countryside conservation

• Develop the sustainability criteria to underpin the planning process: the design policies to underpin the strategy

• Establish the public private partnership to drive the scheme, to ensure affordability and energy efficiency, and set up funding

• Ensure the provision of public transport infrastructure to provide access to jobs and services and protect adjacent suburbs

• Develop the design/development team, masterplan, code (?) and competitive processes to deliver sustainable extension(s)

• A ‘world class city’ needs world class suburbs

Provision of affordable housing has declined as a proportion of market housing

Connecting through Wales International Business Park to Creigiau and Beddau to serve RCT

Jct 32M4

Jct 32 M4

77,000 in-commuters 2006Rapid increase from Vale/RCT

SEWTA transport plans£ 65m pa funding cannot deliver quality network