Skills Cardiff City Region

SkillS and the Cardiff City region

employment StruCture

unemployment

Working population trendS

SoCio-eConomiC data

SkillS baSe

SkillS and QualifiCationShigheSt number of graduateS

inWard inveStment

Skilled WorkerS eConomiC baCkground

cardiff

rcT

Wales

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

The vale of GlaMorGan

Torfaen

CCR

key findingS

• Cardiff city is the key engine for growth for the

whole of the CCR.• The Cardiff area should promote its existing

skills base as a means of attracting inward investment, as this compares very well with other UK cities.

• T he economic structure of the region has changed and skills provision needs to reflect

the resulting changing needs of the economy. Focus needs to be placed on developing skills in areas outside of Cardiff in the CCR along with much closer linking of employment and skills policies and interventions, and a better dialogue with the business community.

• Improvements to transport infrastructure need to be made so that people living further away from the capital can more easily access skills and job opportunities in Cardiff.

• There needs to be an understanding that low demand for skilled workers is linked to low supply. One means of breaking this cycle is to work harder to attract larger firms with significant HQ functions to the CCR.

2 SkillS and the Cardiff City region

Modern developed nations need a mix of

skills in order for their economies to function

efficiently. All of the nation’s resources and

opportunities need to be identified so that

skills can be developed.

The Welsh Government has recommended

that ten local authorities in South East Wales

work together under the guise of the Cardiff

City Region (CCR) to improve their economic

performance.

Developing the skills supply side and

harnessing existing skill sets is key to

improving the economic performance of

the area. This report analyses the diverse

socio-economic conditions within the

CCR, and the skills base of the local

authorities that are part of it. The report

finds opportunities as well as challenges for

the region, with great variation in levels of

economic activity and access to economic

opportunity across the CCR.

Summary

Cardiff Business sChool 3

• There is a significant difference in experience of areas within the Cardiff City Region in relation to full time/part time working, public sector employment, and overall employment growth.

• The employment structure of the CCR is developing in such a way that gross value added per capita differentials between the richest and poorest parts of the area are expected to grow in the next decade.

• This will lead to a greater level of inequality between Cardiff and the Heads of the Valleys area. It is difficult to see where sustainable employment opportunities will emerge in the Heads of the Valleys.

• Improving the skills base of those outside the Cardiff area is unlikely in itself to resolve the disparity. Evidence including that from the European Social Fund Leavers Survey in Wales highlights the necessity of developing improved infrastructure. This would ensure that suitably qualified and skilled people are able to access opportunities around the M4 corridor from areas further to the north in the CCR. The concept of a city region would need to see strong links developed between the education, skills and training provision infrastructure, and physical transport infrastructures.

• Significant interventions are needed to improve skills. This will help improve access to employment and opportunity. A particular focus needs to be placed on skills development outside the Cardiff area.

• Policymakers need to consider what the demands for skills are, and where employment is likely to be based geographically. Economic prospects across the CCR vary tremendously. Evidence suggests that Cardiff and Newport will remain the growth drivers for the City region.

• The structural change in the employment base of the CCR needs to be reflected upon carefully by those developing new skills training provision to ensure that supply responds quickly to changing demands.

our ConCluSionS and reCommendationS:

SkillS and the Cardiff City region4

table of ContentS

6

8

14

17

18

21

22

2. eConomiC baCkground to the SkillS analySiS

3. ConCluSionS and reCommendationS

1. the Cardiff City region and SkillS5

1.1 introduCtion

SkillS and QualifiCationS baSe of the Cardiff City region

unemployment

eConomiC aCtivity rateS

earningS aCroSS the Cardiff City region area

2.1 Working population trendS in the Cardiff City region

employment 2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

5Cardiff Business sChool

1. the Cardiff City region and SkillS

1.1 introduCtion

1.1.1 The Cardiff City Region is the focus of a new regional development agenda. Following a review by the Welsh Government in 2012, it was recommended that 10 local authorities1 should work together to improve the overall economic performance of the South East of Wales. Given the diverse socio-economic conditions facing the local authorities involved, and the large population encompassed (over 1.4 million), it is imperative to understand better the existing resources and the potential of this new region.

1.1.2 Wales was long viewed by inward investors as a low cost manufacturing base and export platform – something akin to a branch plant economy. But Wales has moved on. The economy now features high levels of service industry employment. This report examines the employment structure and skills base of the new Cardiff City Region (CCR). It provides a comparison with other leading city regions in the UK.

1 Cardiff, Newport, Monmouthshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Torfaen, Blaenau,

Gwent, Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, Rhondda Cynon Taf (RCT)

1.1.3 Cardiff has one of the highest numbers of graduates relative to other cities. However, the report finds that the CCR faces some real skills challenges when compared to its major competitors.

1.1.4 The report examines the employment structure of the CCR. It does this by first looking at the socio economic data as well as the individual skills base of the local authorities that are included in the CCR, before drawing comparisons with other city regions. Earnings and unemployment data provide valuable insights. Finally some recommendations are made on how to improve the current skills base of the City region.

Working population trendS

SoCio-eConomiC data

employment StruCture

SkillS and QualifiCationS

higheSt number of graduateS


2.1 Working population trendS in the Cardiff City region

2.1.1 Table 1 compares the recent population trend in the local authorities that constitute the CCR and Wales. The data refer to Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid-year estimates.

Wales as a whole experienced a 3.3% increase in population over the period 2001 to 2010. However in the CCR, the local authorities of Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil and Torfaen saw a decline in population over the period. Stronger population growth was found both in urban and rural authorities with notable increases in both Newport and Monmouthshire. Cardiff itself saw the largest increase (10%) growing three times faster than the rest of Wales.


TaBle 1: populaTion chanGe: cardiff ciTy reGion local auThoriTies & Wales, 2001-2010 SOURCe: ONS, mId-yeaR pOpUlaTION eSTImaTeS, [NOmIS]

LocaL authority/country

WaLes

BridGend

vale of GlaMorGan

cardiff

rcT

MerThyr Tydfil

caerphilly

Blaenau GWenT

Torfaen

MonMouThshire

neWporT

ccr

2001

2,910,232

128,735

119,277

310,088

231,910

56,207

169,546

70,000

90,912

84,984

137,642

1,399,301

2005

2,950,128

131,247

121,789

317,846

234,538

55,314

170,743

68,709

90,527

87,347

138,553

1,416,613

2010

3,006,430

134,564

124,976

341,054

234,309

55,699

173,124

68,368

90,533

88,089

141,306

1,452,022

2008

2,990,077

133,921

124,123

330,515

234,377

55,556

172,363

68,759

90,645

87,837

139,662

1,437,758

Population change 2001-2010

3.3

4.5

4.8

10.0

1.0

-0.9

2.1

-2.3

-0.4

3.7

2.7

3.7


2.1.2 Table 2 provides information on the working age population of the CCR local authorities. The working age population varies between 61.3% of total population in Monmouthshire to 68.5% in Cardiff. In seven of the local authorities, the share of working population to total population is within a percentage point of the Welsh average at 63.4%.


TaBle 2. WorkinG populaTion across The cardiff ciTy reGion, Mid-2011 SOURCe: ONS, 2011 mId-yeaR eSTImaTeS

These variations in the population of working age are onecomponent contributing to differences in gross value added per capita across the CCR. However, other factors such as concentration of different sectors in particular areas which pay different rates can greatly distort this figure.

LocaL authority/country

WaLes

BridGend

vale of GlaMorGan

cardiff

rcT

MerThyr Tydfil

caerphilly

Blaenau GWenT

Torfaen

MonMouThshire

neWporT

ccr

total

3,063,758

139,410

126,679

345,442

234,373

58,851

178,782

69,812

91,190

91,508

145,785

1,481,832

Working Population

1,941,524

89,024

79,677

236,627

149,734

38,026

114,124

44,821

57,509

56,067

92,546

958,155

Working age population as a %

63.4

63.9

62.9

68.5

63.9

64.6

63.8

64.2

63.1

61.3

63.5

64.6

2.2 employment

2.2.1 Table 3 reveals the distribution of the Cardiff City Region employment across the 10 constituent local authority areas. The region encompasses nearly 50% of total Welsh employment. This is to be expected as it accounts for approximately 50% of the Welsh population. Around one third of employment in the CCR is within the Cardiff local authority area. Table 3 also reveals the intensity of employment within

the local authorities. It measures the share of the Welsh population in the local authority compared to the share of employment in the local authority. For example, Cardiff has 16.4% of Welsh employment with 11.2% of the Welsh population. If a local authority has a score greater than one it indicates it has a high intensity. These data shows the importance of Cardiff and Newport as employment hubs for the city region.


TaBle 3: eMployMenT across ccr local auThoriTies 2011 SOURCe: BUSINeSS RegISTeR aNd emplOymeNT SURvey (ONS)

2. eConomiC baCkground to the SkillS analySiS Cont.

+3+2+HBlaenau GWenT

1.5 %

0.7employment18,129 +10+2+H

BridGend

4.4 %


caerphilly

4.2 %


cardiff

16.4 %

1.5

employment191,929

+4+2+HMerThyr Tydfil

1.9 %


MonMouThshire

2.7 %


neWporT

6.2 %

1.3 employment72,486 +13+2+H

rcT

6.2 %

0.8employment72,363

+7+2+HThe vale of GlaMorGan

3.1 %


Torfaen

2.9 %


ccr

49.6%

1.0

employment579,849 +100+H

Wales

employment1,170,077

employmentkey % of WaleS total intenSity of employment


TaBle 4: eMployMenT across ccr local auThoriTies 2008 To 2011 NOTe: NUmBeRS aRe FOR THOSe aged 16 aNd OveR. SOURCe: BUSINeSS RegISTeR aNd emplOymeNT SURvey (ONS)

totaL emPLoyment

Wales

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

rcT


Torfaen

ccr

2008

1,195,520

19,034

56,947

50,727

193,710

22,334

35,582

73,864

73,276

36,661

35,150

597,285

2009

1,157,749

18,062

55,354

51,552

187,732

21,874

33,310

69,862

70,390

35,972

33,333

577,441

2011

1,170,077

18,129

51,871

49,458

191,929

22,283

31,208

72,486

72,363

36,434

33,688

579,849

2010

1,165,520

18,991

53,344

48,887

190,692

21,859

32,496

70,750

72,435

35,687

33,457

578,598

2008-2011 % change

-2.1

-4.8

-8.9

-2.5

-0.9

-0.2

-12.3

-1.9

-1.3

-0.6

-4.2

-2.9

2008-2011 % change

0.4

-4.5

-2.8

1.2

0.6

1.9

-4.0

2.5

-0.1

2.1

0.7

0.2

2.2.2 Table 4 provides more detail and shows recent changes in employment for CCR local authorities for the period 2008-2011. It should be noted that changes in employment can be affected by the time-scale adopted. This analysis aims to investigate whether employment in the individual local authorities is recovering after the problems of the credit crisis. Overall employment in Wales fell by 2.1% between 2008 and 2011. Although no local authorities saw growth

across the period selected, Table 4 does reveal somelimited recovery in employment in the Cardiff City Region as a whole after 2009. At the same time, the table provides strong evidence of a variation in prospects across the CCR. Taking the shorter period 2009-2011 from Table 4, Bridgend and Monmouth see large losses of employment, while stronger growth in numbers is evidenced in Cardiff and Newport. It is important to recognise that employment growth in Cardiff and Newport often involves people outside of these two local authority areas, with Cardiff particularly seeing strong inward commuting from local authority areas to the North and West.


+50+2+H

10

2.2.3 There has been a concern in South East Wales as a whole that selected employment increases reflect higher numbers of part-time opportunities, and a possible reduction in the quality of employment. To understand the nature of the changes in employment, comparisons are made between the changes in part time and full time work across the period.

2.2.4 Table 5 displays these data. Overall across the Cardiff City Region the level of part-time employment is actually little changed over the period with the exception of a peak in 2010.

2.2.5 However, Table 5 reveals that full time employment in the CCR fell by around 22,000 over 2008-2010, but saw some recovery in 2011. There is little evidence of a general trend that would hint at a strong overall increase in part time working. Again interpretation here is sensitive to the reference year taken, but in five local authorities there is evidence to demonstrate that part-time employment increases marginally in the period 2008-11. Three areas (Caerphilly, Monmouth and Bridgend) see sharp falls in part-time working over the period 2008-11.

SkillS and the Cardiff City region


TaBle 5: parT TiMe and full TiMe eMployMenT across ccr local auThoriTies 2008 To 2011 SOURCe: BUSINeSS RegISTeR aNd emplOymeNT SURvey (ONS)`

totaL emPLoyment

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

rcT


Torfaen

ccr

2008

part time

6,195

17,793

17,342

60,240

7,494

13,603

23,792

20,150

13,133

11,304

191,046

full time

12,839

39,155

33,385

133,469

14,840

21,980

50,073

53,126

23,528

23,845

406,240

part time

8.8

-9.8

-10.8

2.4

-7.5

-17.8

-5.6

23.5

9.1

4.5

0.3

full time

-11.3

-8.5

1.8

-2.4

3.5

-8.9

-0.1

-10.6

-6.1

-8.2

-4.4

% change2009

part time

6,268

18,686

17,473

57,525

7,388

11,776

22,931

23,678

13,295

11,504

190,524

full time

11,795

36,668

34,079

130,207

14,486

21,534

46,931

46,711

22,677

21,828

386,916

2010

part time

7,205

18,075

15,692

61,148

7,142

11,824

23,292

24,060

13,485

12,463

194,386

full time

11,786

35,270

33,195

129,543

14,717

20,671

47,459

48,376

22,202

20,994

384,213

2011

part time

6,738

16,051

15,475

61,687

6,933

11,175

22,467

24,887

14,331

11,808

191,552

full time

11,391

35,820

33,982

130,242

15,352

20,034

50,019

47,475

22,102

21,880

388,297


2.2.6 Covering both semi-rural and urban areas, the economic base of the Cardiff City Region was built on the old manufacturing and extractive industries. This focus has changed over the last three decades. Studies in the last decade have revealed that the growth of services, particularly in the public sector, has dominated economic activity. Table 6 shows the changes in public and private sector employment across the more recent period 2008-11 after the credit crunch.

2.2.7 Table 6 reveals that there are significant differences in the changes in public and private sector employment. The majority of public sector employment is within the education, health and public administration sectors. For the whole of the Cardiff City Region, employment in the public sector grew in 2008-09. By 2011 public sector employment stood at around 166,000, 0.6% higher than


TaBle 6: chanGes in puBlic and privaTe secTor eMployMenT across ccr local auThoriTies 2008 To 2011 NOTe: NUmBeRS aRe FOR THOSe aged 16 aNd OveR. SOURCe: BUSINeSS RegISTeR aNd emplOymeNT SURvey (ONS)

totaL emPLoyment

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

rcT


Torfaen

ccr

2008

private sector

13,575

39,985

36,769

147,164

13,801

26,414

53,316

50,674

26,732

24,106

432,536

public sector

5,459

16,962

13,958

46,546

8,533

9,169

20,548

22,602

9,929

11,043

164,749

part time

-6.5

-9.5

0.1

-4.6

-1.1

-10.9

-4.3

0.6

-2.2

-6.2

-4.3

full time

-0.4

-7.5

-9.5

10.6

1.2

-16.3

4.6

-5.5

3.6

0.3

0.6

% change2009

private sector

12,213

38,623

36,395

137,483

13,072

25,377

46,651

47,865

25,772

22,208

405,659

public sector

5,849

16,731

15,157

50,248

8,802

7,933

23,211

22,525

10,200

11,125

171,782

2010

private sector

13,026

36,155

36,895

140,785

13,095

24,691

47,950

49,145

25,651

21,448

408,841

public sector

5,964

17,189

11,992

49,907

8,764

7,804

22,800

23,291

10,036

12,009

169,757

2011

private sector

12,694

36,188

36,822

140,462

13,651

23,539

51,003

50,999

26,151

22,614

414,123

public sector

5,435

15,684

12,636

51,466

8,632

7,670

21,484

21,363

10,282

11,074

165,726

it had been in 2008. Table 6 confirms that up until 2011 thenon-market sector of the Cardiff City Region was providing something of a mask concealing private sector employment losses. For example Table 6 reveals nearly 27,000 private sector job losses in the Cardiff City Region between 2008-09 with some limited recovery in 2010 and 2011.

Once again the data identify some of the variation across the Cardiff City Region. In terms of changes in public sector employment, Bridgend, Caerphilly and Monmouthshire have seen relatively high losses, compared with stronger gains in Cardiff and Newport. Cardiff has seen over a 10% rise in public sector employment between 2008-11, whereas Monmouthshire saw a fall of over 16%. With the exception of Caerphilly and RCT, there has been a fall in private sector employment in all local authorities between 2008-11.

12 Small buSineSSeS in priority SeCtorS

2.2.8 Looking in more depth at the current sectoral composition of the Cardiff City Region, Table 7 breaks down employment by industry. The first point to note is the high level of employment in industries where productivity growth has historically been slow (i.e. the public sector and education).


TaBle 7: indusTry eMployMenT 2010 ccr area SOURCe: ONS, BReS

industry emPLoyment

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

rcT


Torfaen

ccr

manufacturing, construction

and extraction

5,125

10,655

14,805

20,902

3,351

5,402

14,166

15,353

5,716

7,968

103,443


Public administration

and defence

1,268

3,931

4,191

16,110

2,329

893

5,804

2,725

1,950

3,907

43,108

Financial and insurance

173

1,133

681

12,400

187

422

3,803

864

516

379

20,598

Business administration & support services

648

3,512

3,803

18,228

1,091

1,151

5,508

2,907

2,209

1,596

40,653

retail

2,740

8,871

7,134

28,328

3,919

5,724

12,418

11,911

5,287

4,885

91,217

other sevices

3,339

10,220

8,135

48,365

4,465

8,187

14,023

14,779

9,320

5,421

126,254

education & health

4,835

13,548

10,708

47,554

6,945

9,428

16,764

23,823

11,436

9,533

154,574

total

18,128

51,870

49,457

191,927

22,287

31,207

72,486

72,362

36,434

33,689

579,847

7.9

2.2.9 Historically, the CCR local authorities have had a relatively high proportion of employment in manufacturing and extractive industries. This has been important in offering relatively higher earnings for males. However, the long term trend has seen rationalisation and restructuring of the manufacturing sector, and during the recession the manufacturing base has shrunk even further. Indeed between 2008 and 2011 it is estimated that the Cardiff City Region area may have lost up to 13,000 manufacturing jobs. Over 5,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in RCT and Bridgend alone between 2008 and 2011. Figure 1 shows the significant decline of manufacturing over this period.

Cardiff Business sChool and federation of small Businesses, Wales

13

fiGure 1. ManufacTurinG decline in ccr SOURCe: ONS, BReS, [NOmIS]

Cardiff Business sChool


80,000

66,000

63,000

67,000

2.2.10 Of growing importance is the retail sector with over 91,217 jobs. As highlighted above, the CCR has high levels of employment in the public sector comprising public administration, education and health. With such a large proportion of jobs connected to public expenditure, a significant problem for the CCR is the UK government’s cuts programme, which will continue apace until the next general election.

2.2.11 Declining employment across the CCR is the defining trend across the period 2008-2010, although there is some indication of recovery in the latest figures. Full-time work has been decreasing more rapidly than part time work. There is also evidence that the public sector has not seen the declines of the private sector across the region. Overall there is a great deal of variation between local authorities within the CCR. These changes in the employment base will have a marked impact on the future growth potential of local authorities across the CCR, with implications for patterns of skills demand going forward.

2008

2009

2010

2011


2.3 SkillS and QualifiCationS baSe of the Cardiff City region

2.3.1 Skills and growth are inherently linked, and there is much evidence of the growth of city regions being linked to highly educated workforces. Academic work such as Grossette (2007) makes a link between business networks and education. Cardiff has been cited as having a relatively well educated workforce3 - the Welsh Government notes that almost 40 per cent of the Cardiff workforce is qualified to at least NVQ level 4.

2.3.2 One important issue is the potential conflation of skills and qualifications. Statistical data is readily available on the qualifications that people hold, but there is rather less on the skills that people have. In 2004 a survey of basic skills was carried out by BMRB for Wales based on a comparable study carried out in England for the Department for Education and Skills during 20034. The survey sampled over 2,500 adults between the age of 16 and 65 in Wales. Although this research was carried out using different methods, it nevertheless allows some comparatives to be drawn.


2.3.3 The results of the surveys drawn from data across Wales demonstrated that: • 75 per cent of adults were assessed at Level 1 or above, around half of whom were at Level 1 and half were at Level 2. • 53 per cent of adults (around 980,000) were estimated to have Entry Level numeracy or below. Of the 47 per cent assessed at Level 1 or above, less than half were at Level 2. • Compared with the 2003 results for England, a higher proportion of adults in Wales were estimated to have Entry level or below literacy (25 per cent in Wales compared to 16 per cent in England) and numeracy skills (53 per cent in Wales compared to 47 per cent in England).

2.3.4 In 2010 a similar study conducted by Miller Research found that some progress had been made: 88% of respondents achieved Level 1 or higher for literacy. However, progress on numeracy has been slower, with just 50% of respondents assessed at Level 1 or above.

TaBle 8. cardiff ciTy reGion. percenTaGes of The WorkinG aGe populaTion WiTh differenT QualificaTion levels 2011 SOURCe: aNNUal pOpUlaTION SURvey, ONS

industry emPLoyment

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

rcT


Torfaen

Wales

% with degree or equivalent

and above aged 16-64

9.6

20.3

13.6

33.5

10.0

27.1

22.0

18.6

25.7

13.8

20.7

% with higher education below

degree level aged 16-64

7.0

8.4

8.5

5.6

11.0

10.0

9.3

8.5

10.9

8.6

8.9

% with Gce, a level or

equivalent aged 16-64

22.5

24.7

22.7

22.3

19.7

24.0

21.2

21.5

24.2

21.7

23.3

% with nVQ 4+ aged 16-64

16.5

28.6

21.8

38.9

20.7

36.7

31.1

27.0

36.2

22.3

29.3


35.6

50.3

41.8

58.5

37.5

57.3

50.3

45.5

58.4

42.7

50.1


57.7

69.2

61.5

74.7

56.0

75.5

68.1

66.8

75.1

63.2

68.6


73.7

82.9

76.5

84.7

68.9

86.8

81.5

79.7

86.1

77.7

81.4

% with no

qualifcations aged 16-64

15.6

9.5

17.0

9.8

20.1

8.5

11.9

14.4

9.1

13.6

12.3


2.3.5 Table 8 examines the qualifications mix of the Cardiff City Region and focuses on both vocational and traditional academic qualifications within the working age population. For the purposes of the study the percentage without qualifications has also been examined. The table also examines 16-18 year old provision by looking at GCEs and A levels.

2.3.6 The proportion of the working age population with

GCE A level or equivalent has been examined. Only three of the local authorities in the Cardiff City Region do better than the Welsh average (23.3% of the working age population with A level or equivalent) with Merthyr Tydfil having the lowest figure of 19.7%.

2.3.7 Looking at the proportion of the working age population with an NVQ (4)5 or above, the Welsh average (29.3%) is only bettered in four parts of the Cardiff City Region (Cardiff, Monmouthshire, Newport and the Vale of Glamorgan with 38.9%, 36.7%, 31.1% and 36.2% respectively).


3 http://www.ljmu.ac.uk/EIUA/EIUA_Docs/Cardiff_Executive_Summary.pdf4 https://www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/RR490.pdf5 RNVQs are not formally defined in terms of equivalence to conventional academic qualifications. However for the compilation of social

statistics and other purposes, approximate equivalences have to be established.

NVQ 1 = foundation GNVQ, three to four GCSEs at grades D-E, Business & Technology Education Council (BTEC) first certificate.

NVQ 2 = four or five GCSEs at grades A*–C, BTEC first diploma.

NVQ 3 = two or more A levels, BTEC Ordinary National Diploma (OND), City & Guilds Advanced Craft.

NVQ 4 = BTEC Higher National Certificate (HNC) or Higher National Diploma (HND), or City & Guilds Full Technological Certificate /Diploma

2.3.8 Looking at the wider skill base of the city region, Blaenau Gwent records one of the lowest levels across the UK with only 16.5% qualified to NVQ (4) or above. When examining the proportion of the working age population with a degree or above the figures also vary dramatically from 9.6% in Blaenau Gwent to 33.5% in Cardiff. Five of the local authority areas in the CCR are well below the Welsh average of 20.7%.

2.3.9 Table 8 also gives figures for the percentage of working age population with no qualifications. The Welsh average is 12.3%, with a level of over 20% in Merthyr Tydfil.

2.3.10 A comparison of qualifications levels has been undertaken against some of the major city regions in the UK. Table 9 displays these results. Cardiff does well when compared to other major cities for skill levels. Cardiff is second only to Bristol for the percentage of the working age population with a degree and is highest for NVQ3+ with 58.5% of the working age population achieving this (this is considerably higher than the UK figure of 52.5%). In terms of no qualifications as a proportion of the working population, Cardiff has the lowest level across the sample. For the purposes of comparison the CCR averages have also been calculated.

TaBle 9. percenTaGes of The WorkinG aGe populaTion WiTh differenT QualificaTion levels: CaRdIFF CITy RegION aNd OTHeR CITy aReaS 2011

SOURCe: aNNUal pOpUlaTION SURvey, ONS.

industry emPLoyment

% WiTh deGree or eQuivalenT and aBove aGed 16-64

% WiTh Gce, a level or eQuivalenT aGed 16-64

% WiTh nvQ 4+ aGed 16-64

% WiTh Trade apprenTiceships aGed 16-64

% WiTh no QualificaTion aGed 16-64




Birmingham

18.8

21.2

25.2

2.8

16.9

43.5

59.3

72.8

Liverpool

20.8

23.1

26.2

2.8

18.2

46.6

64.3

76

mancheshter

31.4

20.5

38.3

2.0

14.0

57.0

70.2

79.4

Bristol

36.2

17.1

42.2

2.8

12.5

57.7

70.5

81.6

cardiff

33.5

22.3

38.9

2.4

9.8

58.5

74.7

84.7

cardiff city region

19.4

22.4

27.9

3.5

12.9

47.7

66.7

79.8

uK

24.3

22.7

32.7

3.7

10.9

52.5

69.5

82.4


2.3.11 The CCR fares less well than Cardiff, having a higher percentage than the UK average of the working population without any qualifications. Notwithstanding the success of Cardiff in having significant numbers of graduates, when the Cardiff figures are combined with those of the wider CCR, the region falls below the UK average. The region however does better in terms of trade apprenticeships where it is close to the UK average and greater than the other selected cities.

2.3.12 Another important aspect of skills development is the more non-traditional methods of learning and informal qualifications and training undertaken by individuals. Table 10 shows the proportion of people of working age who have undertaken taught adult learning courses and trade apprenticeships. Increasing the numbers of young people accessing trade apprenticeships has become an important policy objective in Wales.

2.3.13 Looking first at adult learning, the proportion of economically active who have undertaken taught adult learning is generally better than the Welsh average, with 7 out of the 10 local authorities in the CCR having a higher percentage of adult learners than the overall Welsh level of 27.6%. Two of the authorities that have not done well in qualification terms are nevertheless well represented in the numbers of adult learners: in Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent, approximately 28% of the economically active have engaged in taught adult learning. The proportion of the economically active with trade apprenticeships averages 3.7% for the UK. For Wales the comparative figure is 4.2%. Across the CCR the figure varies from a low of 2.3% in Cardiff to a high of 6.3% in Merthyr. Clearly, these numbers tell us much about the historic and current industrial structures of these areas.


TaBle 10. non-TradiTional MeThods of learninG 2011 SOURCe: aNNUal pOpUlaTION SURvey, ONS.

rcT

local auThoriTy/counTry

28.0

28.0

27.0

30.2

27.8

29.1

28.5

26.9

31.0

27.3

27.6

4.9

3.6

4.3

2.3

6.3

4.5

3.3

3.5

4.4

5.0

4.2

% with taught

adult learningaged 16-69

% of economically

active with trade apprenticeships

aged 16-69

caerphilly

BridGend

MerThyr Tydfil

neWporT


Blaenau GWenT

cardiff

MonMouThshire

Wales

Torfaen

17Cardiff Business sChool and federation of small Businesses, Wales

2.4 unemployment

2.4.1 In what remains of this section we focus on other labour market and economic variables that are relevant to a discussion of skills and skills development.

2.4.2 Table 11 provides a summary of the Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant count for the Cardiff City Region and comparative figures for Wales. The JSA claimant count records the number of people claiming JSA and National Insurance credits at Jobcentre Plus local offices. To avoid distortions caused by commuting patterns, the rates here are the claimant count expressed as a portion of the local resident (not workforce) population of working age.

2.4.3 There were over 46,000 JSA claimants across the Cardiff City Region in August 2012. Comparison of the claimant rate with figures for Wales as a whole again hints at the poor economic prospects for some parts of the CCR area. In August 2012 7.6% of the resident population of working age in Blaenau Gwent were JSA claimants, with a figure of 6.3% in Merthyr. Rates of unemployment are lower in Cardiff, Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan (see Figure 2). It appears that areas closer to the M4 corridor perform better on this measure relative to the Valleys economies. Table 11 also reveals the sharp divide between claimant rates for males and females.



TaBle 11. Jsa claiManTs auGusT 2012 ccr local auThoriTies NOTe: RaTeS FOR 2011 ONwaRdS aRe CalCUlaTed USINg THe mId-2010 ReSIdeNT pOpUlaTION aged 16-64.

+50+32+18HBlaenau GWenT

2.6 %7.6 %

4.9 %

total number3,395 +47+36+17H

BridGend

1.4 %4.1 %

2.7%


caerphilly

1.8 %5.2 %

3.4 %


cardiff

1.4 %4.6 %

3.1 %

total number10,801

+58+31+11HMerThyr Tydfil

2.1 %6.3 %

4.1 %


MonMouThshire

0.9 %2.6 %

1.7 %


neWporT

1.8 %5.6 %

3.8 %


rcT

1.7 %5.1 %

3.4 %

total number7,637

+45+34+21HThe vale of GlaMorGan

1.1 %3.5%

2.4 %


Torfaen

1.8 %5.5 %

3.7 %


ccr

1.6 %4.8 %

3.2 %


Wales

2.7 %4.4 %

5.6 %

total number78,978

total ratekey male rate female rate



2.4.4 The duration of unemployment for local authorities in the north of the Cardiff City Region in August 2012 was also more likely to be of a longer term than that found for all Wales.

2.4.5 The local authorities of Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen and RCT have the highest unemployment rates. The five authorities had nearly 23,000 people unemployed in August 2012, over 28% of the Welsh total unemployed.

fiGure 2: claiManT raTes; all people: ccr local auThoriTies auGusT 2012 NOTe: RaTeS FOR lOCal aUTHORITIeS aRe CalCUlaTed USINg THe mId-2010 ReSIdeNT pOpUlaTION aged 16-64.SOURCe: NOmISweB

2.5 eConomiC aCtivity rateS

2.5.1 Table 12 illustrates rates of economic inactivity across the CCR area. The average economic activity rate in Wales was 73% in 2011-12. Overall activity rates fell below the Welsh rate in Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Newport, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport and RCT. The economically inactive include those with a disability, carers, people experiencing long-term illness and those early retired. Students are also included in these figures which helps to explain the relatively low rate of economic activity in Cardiff.

2.5.2 Each working day, approximately 70,000 people commute from the Cardiff City Region into the capital to work. There is evidence to suggest that this plays a large part in the growth of the city’s employment and will continue to do so. The economically inactive are therefore a potentially critical source of labour for future development.

+420=+790=

+520=+465=

+280=

cardiff

rcT

Wales

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT


Torfaen

+680=

+590=+500=

+360=

+560=++410=

7.9

4.2

5.3

4.6

6.8

2.8

5.9

5.1

3.6

5.6

4.1



TaBle 12: econoMic acTiviTy raTes, apr 2011-Mar 2012 SOURCe: NOmISweB

cardiff

+72+78+6777.6

72.166.9

MerThyr Tydfil

+72+78+6777.9

71.064.4

MonMouThshire

+78+84+7383.7

78.172.7

neWporT

+73+78+6680.2

72.865.5

rcT

+71+76+6776.1

70.965.8


+73+78+7378.1

75.573.1

Torfaen

+73+81+6980.9

74.768.9

Wales

+73+81+6978.5

73.067.6

BridGend

+71+76+6784.3

77.370.4

caerphilly

+71+76+6776.8

70.363.9+71+76+6776.5

69.462.5

Blaenau GWenT

key

eConomiC aCtivity rate Male aGed 16-64

eConomiC aCtivity rate aGed 16-64

eConomiC aCtivity rate feMale aGed 16-64



TaBle 13: coMponenTs of econoMic inacTiviTy in The cardiff ciTy reGion: sepT 2012 NOTe: % FOR TOp TOTal ROw IS aS pROpORTION OF all aged 16-64, wHIle OTHeR ROwS %S ReFeR TO TOTal eCONOmICally INaCTIve.SOURCe: NOmISweB: ONS aNNUal pOpUlaTION SURvey

industry emPLoyment

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

neWporT

rcT


Torfaen

Wales

% who are economically inactive

aged 16-64

30.6

22.7

29.7

27.9

29.0

21.9

27.2

29.1

24.5

25.3

27.0

% of economically

inactive student

20.9

18.6

12.5

38.9

11.4

20.1

22.2

21.4

23.8

17.0

23.6

% of economically inactive looking after

family home

22.5

18.5

27.4

20.7

24.4

18.9

23.6

20.3

19.7

21.5

21.4

% of economically inactive long

term sick

29.6

32.3

34.6

18.1

39.5

23.9

27.4

35.5

25.3

30.8

27.5

% of economically

inactive retired

15.8

22.2

14.5

10.1

15.3

27.0

15.7

14.1

19.4

22.0

17.3

% of economically

inactive other

7.3

6.3

6.7

7.3

6.1

7.0

7.9

6.3

11.0

6.1

7.1

2.5.3 Table 13 examines the components of economic inactivity across the Cardiff City Region. For Wales as a whole, 23.6% of economically inactive are students. Within the Cardiff City Region this figure varies considerably between 38.9% in Cardiff and 11.4% in Merthyr Tydfil. Only Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan have higher levels of student-linked economic inactivity than the Wales average.

2.5.4 Of particular importance for the skills development in the Cardiff City Region is the very large number of the inactive that are classified as long term sick. For Wales as a whole this figure was 27.5% . However, for parts of the CCR the long term sick figure reaches well over 30% of the economically inactive. Nearly 40% of the economically inactive were classified as long term sick in Merthyr Tydfil and nearly 36% in RCT.



2.6 earningS aCroSS the CCr area

2.6.1 It is important to consider the rewards available for better qualified and skilled people when assessing skills development. Table 14 shows average (median) gross weekly pay for full-time workers taken from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) for 2011. The table reveals that earnings across the Cardiff City Region vary greatly. There is also significant gender difference. The unweighted averages of the male earnings against female earnings see a £152 difference. However without exception, on all of the measures, the unweighted Cardiff City Region averages are greater than the overall Welsh figure, so the disparity between the incomes of men and women are greater outside of Cardiff than they are elsewhere. In terms

of all full time earnings the Cardiff City Region average level is £463 per week. There is large variability, with Blaenau Gwent over £76 less than the average.

2.6.2 Outside Cardiff city, the area typically has a lower proportion of employees in the relatively well-paid categories of managers and professionals, and administrative and skilled occupations. The proportion of people employed in the managerial and professional category (Standard Occupational Class (SOC) 2010 1-3) in 2010-2011 was 28.8% in Blaenau Gwent compared to 38.9% for Wales There are also links between the occupational basis of employees in Blaenau Gwent and the underlying qualification base.

TaBle 14: averaGe Weekly earninGs in ccr areas 2011 (residence Based) SOURCe: ONS, aNNUal SURvey OF HOURS aNd eaRNINgS (aSHe)

+385+ 342+ 305+ 382

382.2 305.3 342.3 385.1 +463+ 350+ 278+ 451

451.2 277.8 349.9 463.4 +460+ 383+ 312+ 470

470.1 311.9 383.3 459.7 +489+ 390+ 327+ 480

479.1 327.2 390.3 498.5 +441+ 370+ 324+ 439

436.8 323.8 369.5 441.1 +560+ 420+ 318+ 552

551.9 317.6 419.9 560.3

+445+ 363+ 291+ 438

436.7 291.1 362.6 444.7

+508+ 394+ 326+ 490

490.8 326.3 393.9 508.5

+438+ 384+ 267+ 470

469.6 266.9 383.9 438.8 +463+ 376+ 305+ 459

459.0 305.4 376.3 463.4 +460+ 370+ 301+ 454

453.8 301.3 369.5 460.0

+434+ 368+ 306+ 434

421.8 306.3 367.4 433.5

+385+ 342+ 305+ 382male female total full time WorkerS

Blaenau GWenT

BridGend

caerphilly

cardiff

MerThyr Tydfil

MonMouThshire

rcT


Torfaen

ccr

Wales

neWporT

key


3.1.1 The statistics reviewed in this report clearly show that economic

prospects across the Cardiff City Region vary tremendously. The skills

of the Cardiff area are the second highest in the UK in terms of the

proportion of the working age population with a degree.

The employment structure of the Cardiff City Region is developing in such

a way that the disparities between the richest and poorest parts of the

area are expected to grow in the next decade.

There is little doubt that Cardiff and Newport will remain the growth

drivers of the City region. Providing sustainable economic opportunities,

particularly in local authority areas in the Heads of the Valleys, represents

a real challenge. In the Heads of the Valleys area, it is difficult to see where

sustainable employment opportunities will arise over the next decade.

3.1.2 Differentials across the Cardiff City Region in terms of unemployment

levels, inactivity rates and household incomes show few signs of reducing

without more structured interventions. The long-term role of skills

interventions is to improve access to opportunity and employment

together with growth prospects across the area. The underlying challenge

is a huge one, particularly when seen in the context of persistent socio-

economic disparity across the City region. Evidence suggests that skills

and employment interventions for those in the CCR outside of the Cardiff

area are unlikely in themselves to resolve the disparity. Rather, a more

realistic view would be to use the relatively strong growth of Cardiff as a

driver of the whole CCR.




3.1.3 The strong skill base of the Cardiff area presents a good foundation

on which to build a reputation for the CCR as a whole. But the picture is

not uniformly good. While the conditions for attracting inward investment

from other parts of the UK or overseas are tough, the capital city does not

succeed in attracting firms with significant headquarters types functions.

3.1.4 These same firms often demand higher order skills. We believe this

lack of headquartered businesses marks the Cardiff City Region out from

other city regions in the UK and places a constraint on skills demand in

the capital. There needs to be an understanding that low demand for

skilled workers is more likely to lead to low supply so Cardiff needs to

attract larger firms with significant HQ functions to the CCR area as a

means to boost the CCR as a whole.

3.1.5 It is difficult to see how the underlying concept of the Cardiff City

Region will change economic prospects for local authorities to the north

of the capital given the existing quality of infrastructure links. Evidence

including that from the European Social Fund Leavers Surveys in Wales

highlights the role of improved infrastructure in getting suitably qualified

and skilled people to opportunities around the M4 corridor from areas

further to the North. The concept of a city region would need to develop

strong links between the infrastructure surrounding education, skills and

training provision, as well as physical transport infrastructures.

ContaCt details

Roy J ThomasTel: 029 20442020Email: [email protected]

Design: www.blacksheep.info

Positif104-105 Bute StreetCardiffCF10 5ADUK

Documents

Skills Cardiff City Region