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SEVERE WEATHER TIPS, TRICKS, TRAPS Val MacBlain, SOO May 16, 2012 (Say that 3 times fast!!)

Severe Weather - Tips, Tricks and Traps

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This presentation was given on 5/15/2012 to the NWS office in El Paso, Texas

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  • 1. Dual-Pol is an additional tool, but doesNOT replace the other tools in radartoolbox!

2. Dual-Pol will help with the following: Identifying areas of uniform precip Detecting the presence of hail Locating very large hail Distinguishing met/non-met targets QPE/locating areas of heaviest rain rate Detecting tornadic debris Snow vs rain analysis Updraft location 3. Dual-Pol will not help with the following: Identifying mesocyclones Determining specific hail size Forecasting tornadoes Mitigating any of the current radar range effects Making you more charming, witty, handsome (orbeautiful). However, dropping Greek letters like phi and rho, or termslike ZDR columns may make you appear more nerdy atyour next party! Fausetts puns 4. Like forecasting, in general, radar analysis requires integration of all, pertinent data.Analyst Environment Dual-Pol SatelliteAction ProductsLightning ExistingGroundRadar Truth Products 5. Always start with Z, V, (or SRM) Z limits what is possible: < 40 dBZ: not hail; > 65 dBZ: mostly hail < 25 dBZ: mainly light rain (could be heavy snow - winter) > 25 dBZ: probably not biological, smoke, chaff (crosssection/All Tilts) can verify loops show evolution SRM/V shows organizational structure/storm forcing: Convergence/divergence Rotation/shear (MESO/TVS/ETVS) V values near 0 probably indicate clutter/AP (crosssection/All Tilts can verify 6. Next, Correlation Coefficient (CC) Rho in GR2 and research papers Gives uniformity information High values (0.98-1.00) indicate uniform particles (i.e all smaller rain drops, drizzle, smaller snow flakes; infrequently, small graupel/small dry hail) Medium values (0.92-0.98) indicate mixed types/sizes (small hail/rain/snow/graupel) Low values (1.00 usually indicate weak, unreliable data 7. Three Body Scatter Spike in CC:CC TBSS verydistinctive.Lowest CCvalues severalbins downradial - WHY?Note: GR2enhancementcurve stopsat 0.75 so a CCCC Zhole shows up 8. CC uses: Meteorological vs. non-meteorological Large hail (very low CC - TBSS) Irregularly shaped hydrometeors Tornadic debris (diagnostic only) Melting layer Rain vs. snow 9. CC limitations: Noisy and/or values > 1 (pink) with low SNR NBF:Not TBSS signature Extends completely down-radial Beam broadening: makes CC less definitive at long ranges 10. Then: Differential Reflectivity (ZDR) Gives circularity (eccentricity) information Low positive values (0 - 1) indicate round targets (Zv=Zh) small droplets, dry hail (tumbles), dry snow (non-aggregated) Medium values (1 2.5) indicate increasingly flattened targets moderate sized drops, water coated hail, wet snow or biological High Values (> 2.5) very flattened targets large rain drops (possibly with small ice cores), biological Significant negative values (< -0.5) either vertically oriented targets (i.e mainly ice needles) or possibly large hail, due to Mie scattering/re-polarization) effects 11. USEFUL APPROXIMATION:For ZDR 2.0 dB (in rainsituations):Major axis diameter (mm) 0.9 (ZDR) 12. ZDR uses: Hail detection Updraft (ZDR Column) ZDR > 1 dBZ above 0oC level x-section/FSI very useful in identifying Tornadic debris identification low ZDR due to random orientation Melting layer increased ZDR Rain/snow transition area Frozen precipitation types 13. ZDR columns - shows liquid above 0oC Found along updraft flanks in sheared environments Coincides with updraft in weak Sheared environments Usually NOT seen when cloud base is above 0oC Can be used to track developing updrafts, anticipate storm splitting and estimate updraft strength Use all-tilts or ZDR X-section along with CC to confirm 14. ZDR limitations: Large target bias (ZDR less w hail present) Particle density - (ZDRice < ZDRH20) Mie scattering (may switch signs) Low signal to noise ratio (SNR) ZDR less reliablewhen CC < 0.9 15. Finally: Specific Differential Phase (KdP) Gives Liquid Water Content information,KdP = f(dropsize,dropnumber) Higher values = higher rain rates Only higher ZDR values contribute Therefore, insensitive to most hail Not displayed on AWIPS when CC < 0.90. Note: the integrated version, Phi, is available on GR2 atCC < 0.90 16. KdP uses: Heavy rain (only) High values on AWIPS High rate of change on GR2 Heavy rain mixed with hail The more hail (i.e. less rain), the lower KdP Cold vs. warm rain processes Warm rain processes (lower ZDR higher KdP) Cold rain processes (higher ZDR lower KdP) For KDP 2, rainrate KDP * 1.4 17. KdP limitations: Not computed in bins with CC< 0.90 (black holes inthe data), However, GR2 displays all data Noisy/black in low SNR Affected by NBF No data in the areas where CC has down-radial anomalies 18. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 19. Not hail Fairly uniform type Can include large drops Not heavy RLgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 20. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 21. Hail presentCan be quitenon-uniformCan includelarge dropsDepending on% of R, couldbe anythingLgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 22. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 23. Not hail Probably not pure R, dry S Implies possible flattening (i.e. water Not rainLgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 24. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 25. Not hailSomewhat uniformto uniformDepends on watercoating not largedropsDepends on watercoating not R+Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 26. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 27. Not hailSomewhat uniformto uniformModerate to largeraindropsRain rates low tovery lowLgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 28. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 29. Not hail, heavy rain, but too high for IC Uniform type Fairly circular, not large drops Very low LWCLgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 30. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 31. Could contain R or A.Too high for S, R-Fairly uniform touniform. Not much AMay contain largeraindropsMay include R+Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 32. Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 33. Trick question:We saw this earlier.Didnt want to betoo predictable!Lgt/Mod R Heavy Rain Big Drops Hail / (mixed w R)Graupel Dry Snow Wet SnowIce Crystals 34. HydroClassification Algorithm Product: Use as a safety net Can have significant errors - GIGO Range folding Weak signal Only indicates type at radar level Only highest rated type assigned even if valueis 0.001 higher than any other Weightings derived at Norman, OK Not available currently on GR2 35. NOT BlowingDustIncludes rain w.significant hail 36. Precipitation Products:Depending on Z, ZDRand KDP any one ofthree different Z-RRelationships may beused.Legacy precip productscontinue in DP 37. DHRDPANO BIASOHPDSPSTPDP - Legacy 38. Precipitation Products uses: Should give better rain estimates in mixed rain/hailsituations Non-met scatters dont contaminate Non-melted hail/snow dont contaminate Melting hail/wet snow contaminate less User selectable precip (DUA) allows accumulationdown to 15 minute increments 39. Precipitation Products limitations: Z-R used depends on HCA output No bias applied (still have legacy products) Z-R for frozen hydrometeors determined fromcentral OK data Below beam effects still apply 40. Hi-resolution Models useful for: Anticipating potential storm structures Refining location/timing (IF occurrence) Steering Assessing intensity through proxy parameters 41. Poor Mans Severe Storm Ensemble Fcst(PMSSEF): Run around midday for period 16Z-12Z 42. SPC RAP analysis two versions on EPZ home page Rollover Lightscribe 43. Convective Analogs:SPC MARSSt Louis U - CIPS 44. SPC SREF:Ensembles, likeanalogs, help todefine the rangeof possible eventsand give usefulinformation onthe time andspatial limits ofimpact weather. 45. JAAWIN point severe ensembles (see me to request): 46. WDSS-II Radar Storm Cells: 47. Google Traffic:Useful for seeingwhere weather isimpacting trafficon I-10/25 and U.S.70 between LasCruces and Organ.Road speeds can bea clue to heavy rainor hail. 48. Mine Info kml: Contains:Twitter searchWebcamsLinks to scanner feedsLinks to DoT sites 49. Check frequently for MCDs will usually precede watchissuances For strong veering (backing) shear profiles bias boxes tothe right (left) respectively For strong straight shear profiles widen the boxdownstream to allow for storm splitting For linearly accelerating/decelerating or curvingstorms, only go back 2 or 3 time steps at most whensetting path Change VCPs to 12 (or 11) when radar becomes active.VCP 12 favors lower elevation scans whereas VCP 11distributes scans more evenly in the vertical 50. VCP 12 has a 4-1/2 minute volume scan. You probablyshould require an extra scan before issuing SVR in amarginal case. Extensive areas of 60 dBZ exceeding 20,000 ft probablymerit a warning except in tropical air masses The normalized rotation parameter on GR2 will showvortex-like structures in strong rotational situations FSI is much more useful with dual-pol since it willdisplay X-sections of dual-pol data (unlike GR2) Be wary of along-radial or circular phenomena (possibleartifact)