Changing structures in

vocational education

Rod Camm

Managing Director

12th Annual Higher Education Summit

20 May 2014

#145129

To inform and influence Australia’s tertiary

education and training system through

credible, reliable and responsive research

and statistical services

Our Vision

NCVER overview

Support

Inform and influence

Research

Statistical Services

NCVER

The current nature of VET

Sector is Changing

VET is changing

Entitlement

► government subsidised training in first

certificate III qualification;

► government subsidised training for certificate I

& II qualifications where they are components

of the certificate III training; and

► foundation skills training if needed to prepare

for training at the certificate III level

Higher Education is Changing

Demand Driven

► Immediate increase in student numbers

► Increases widely distributed

Review of the Demand Driven Funding

System Report

“there is no persuasive case for returning to the

„capped‟ system…the demand driven system

should be retained, expanded and improved”

The Hon. Dr David Kemp & Mr Andrew Norton

Key elements from the Federal Budget 2014

$820M for an estimated 80,000 additional sub-

bachelor places, including non-university higher

education providers (to be demand-driven)

$745.6M over three years to remove FEE-HELP and

VET FEE-HELP loan fees for higher level vocational

education and training courses

$476.0M over four years for the Industry Skills Fund to

deliver 200,000 targeted training places for small and

medium sized business diversification

$439.0M over five years for Trade Support Loans for

apprentices with financial assistance of up to $20,000

The Language of Markets

Education as an ‘Industry’

► What does it produce?

The Language of Markets

The role of Industry

The Language of Markets

Contestability

► Clarity of Information

Has it worked?

Trends in apprentices and trainee

numbers Early indications for the March 2014 quarter show that:

Trade commencements decreased from 26 000 in the December

quarter 2013 to 24 400 in the March quarter 2014. Since March

2010, this series has maintained a level of about 24 000, fluctuating

by about 2600 commencements per quarter.

Non-trade commencements decreased from 35 200 in the

December quarter 2013 to 32 200 in the March quarter 2014. This

series now shows three consecutive quarters of decline from the

June quarter 2013, following the large fluctuations which occurred

from the September quarter 2011 to the June quarter.

Trade and non-trade commencements,

seasonally adjusted and smoothed,

December 2003 – March 2014

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

December2003

December2004

December2005

December2006

December2007

December2008

December2009

December2010

December2011

December2012

December2013

Nu

mber

('000)

December 2013 Trade December 2013 Non-trade Trade Non-trade

Source: Apprentices & trainees: Early trend estimates, March quarter 2014

Possible causes of the decline

The expiry of the Productivity Places

Program has possibly been a contributing

factor in the decline in student numbers in

2013

The decline may also be a follow-on effect

from the decline in apprentices and trainees

previously identified

State and territory policies?

Victorian Example

Early impacts of the Victorian Training

Guarantee on VET enrolments and graduate

outcomes

Victorian Example

Enrolments

35% growth in enrolments

(largely in private providers)

Outcomes

15 – 19 year olds more likely to get a job

20 – 24 year olds less likely to get a better job

Limited benefits for ‘disadvantaged’ groups

Qualification Utilisation

Stronger match for occupation groups

with Industry licensing requirements and

regulations

Stronger match for

Certificates III and IV than

certificates I and II and

diplomas and higher

Thank you