Kom verder. Saxion.

What is going on in Ukraine?Lecture for the Fruytier School, Apeldoorngeography class

Jacques Bazen

Kom verder. Saxion.

Overview of the lecture

• International cooperation in Europe

• EU Eastern partnership – case study

• How to explain the Ukranian crisis:Geopolitics or Clash of values?

• Understanding the Russians…!?

Kom verder. Saxion.

About myself

• I studied at the Fruytier (graduated in 1997)

• Studied human geography at Utrecht University

• Worked from 1999 – 2007 as geography teacher at Van Lodensteincollege in Amersfoort

• Since 2007 lecturer at Saxion in Enschede

• Since 2009 project coordinator for training & democratization activities in Eastern Europe

Kom verder. Saxion.

Specialized on working with Eastern Europe

Kom verder. Saxion.

What is happening in Ukraine?

More in particular, who caused the current trouble?

• NOS: Russia did it.

• Brussels: We don’t know, probably Russia

• Russia: CIA together with Brussels did it.

• Wilders: Brussels did it.

• Ukrainians (from West: Russia did it)

• Ukrainians (from East: Fascists in Kiev did it)

Kom verder. Saxion.

Did the EU Eastern Partnership cause it?

EU Partnership is aimed at improving:- Trade with former Sovjet Union states- Making travel easier- European-wide

environmental issues(eg. Baltic Sea, Black Sea)

Not: Candidate membership

Kom verder. Saxion.

Trouble in Ukraine: A small story from the viewpoint of the West

Once upon a time there was acountry that was out of money…Well…there was money, butit was in the deep pockets of theelite

Kom verder. Saxion.

Trouble in UkraineThe president looked around tofind additional money…

Can the EU help?

Maybe a trade agreement/other funding?

Kom verder. Saxion.

Trouble in Ukraine

Conditions for reform were demanded by the EU. The president refused to sign

Kom verder. Saxion.

Trouble in Ukraine

Conditions for reform were demanded by the EU. The president refused to sign

Ukrainian people were fed up by the unfairness of the government and started mass protests.

Kom verder. Saxion.

Trouble in Ukraine

The protests succeeded: The president was ousted.

Ukrainian people were fed up by the unfairness of the government and started mass protests.

Kom verder. Saxion.

Trouble in Ukraine: View from the West

Angry elite feels these changes as a big threat to their lucrative businesses...

A threat that must be stopped...

Kom verder. Saxion.

Is this what and why it happened?

Or are there other explanations?

Kom verder. Saxion.

• Is it a geopolitical game?

• Russia: an attempt to expand the European Union's “sphere of influence” in the quest for oil and gas. International relations according to Russia: Zero-Sum game, so stay out of our backyard!

• EU: These countries voluntarily joined the partnership. No geopolitical tool or blackmail

How to explain the current crisis in Ukraine?

Kom verder. Saxion.

Is the USA behind the troubles in Ukraine?

Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyattphone call:I think we're in play. The Klitschko [Vitaly Klitschko, one of three main opposition leaders] piece is obviously the complicated electron here. Especially the announcement of him as deputy prime minister and you've seen some of my notes on the troubles in the marriage right now so we're trying to get a read really fast on where he is on this stuff. But I think your argument to him, which you'll need to make, I think that's the next phone call you want to set up, is exactly the one you made to Yats [Arseniy Yatseniuk, another opposition leader]. And I'm glad you sort of put him on the spot on where he fits in this scenario. And I'm very glad that he said what he said in response.

Kom verder. Saxion.

What about the Maidan protests:

What we saw about the protests in The Netherlands…

Kom verder. Saxion.

What about the Maidan protests?

What was shown in Russianmass media…

Kom verder. Saxion.

What about the Maidan protests?

BOTH IS TRUE!

But…

Kom verder. Saxion.

Fair and Balanced news coverage?

Kom verder. Saxion.

How to explain the current crisis in Ukraine?

Can Geopolitical theory help with some answers?

Kom verder. Saxion.

Geopolitical theory

Since the industrial revolution, states need more and more resources for production and people to work in factories.

Foreign policy based on secure access to resources.

Kom verder. Saxion.

Russia, Ratzel & The Roman Empire

Friedrich Ratzel: Organic state theory. States are like organisms. Stagnation is decay see Roman Empire.

Ratzel’s idea of growth: German culture should “fertilize” minor nations with its superior culture.

Organic state theory is influential in Russia (“Mother Russia”) breakup of the Soviet Union was a psychological disaster.

Kom verder. Saxion.

Russian point of viewGenerally speaking, the whole period of the early 1990's is regarded in modern Russia as a time of the "great betrayal" of our national interests. All that was decided in internal and external politics by Gorbachev and later by Boris Yeltsin is judged as a complete failure. We consider their politics as absolute stupidity and incompetence. The surrender to the West in 1990, the abandonment of the GDR not for a new Germany but for a bigger FRG is considered today in Russia as one of the shames of this big betrayal. Gorbatchev and Yeltsin also sacrificed our Russia!

Kom verder. Saxion.

Secure access to resources

• Eastern partnership?

• Less dependency on Russian gas?

Kom verder. Saxion.

Role of the USAIs there a secret conspiracy of the USA to destroy Russia? (Depicting Russia as evil aggressor)

Over 60% of the Russians believe this.

Emotion driven politics in Russia the unknown is to be feared

Kom verder. Saxion.

Role of the USAIs there a secret conspiracy of the USA to destroy Russia?

Exchange rate politics?

Depreciation of Ruble against the Dollar/Euro

Kom verder. Saxion.

Role of the USAOil politics – geopolitical measures?

Decreasing the oil prices –Hitting Russia where it hurts the most?

Kom verder. Saxion.

Sanctions in RussiaHitting Europe where it hurts the most?

Food import boycott

Kom verder. Saxion.

Sanctions in RussiaHitting Europe where it hurts the most?

Food import boycott

Kom verder. Saxion.

History repeating itself? American point of view

Cold war containment policy:

George Kennan: Soviet rulers need a hostile world to legitimize their autocratic rule and seek to expand to minimize the “threat” from outside.

America should create a counterforce by giving economic aid (Marshall plan)

Kom verder. Saxion.

American imperialism…

Cold War history repeating itself???

Kom verder. Saxion.

American foreign relations: Realpolitik

Zbigniew Brzezinski:

America is the only remaining superpower and remains necessary to solve Eurasian problems as independent referee → “Project for the new American century”The enemies of our enemies are our friends!

Kom verder. Saxion.

Russian Geopolitics

Alexandr Dugin:

“Foundations of Geopolitics”

Mastermind behind Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy: Eurasian Unity

Idea of breaking American dominance, restoration of Russia as an empire (Multipolar “Balance of power” in the world)

Kom verder. Saxion. Divisions of Europe (model)

Kom verder. Saxion.Finlandization of EuropeRussian sphereGerman sphere

Enemy: “Sea power”

Moscow – Berlin axis

Moscow – Teheranaxis

Kom verder. Saxion.

21st Century EuropeAre we heading for war?

Are the troubles in Ukraine an isolated matter between Ukraine and Russia or will it be a new 1938 “Czechoslovakia”?

Kom verder. Saxion.

21st Century Europe

Nobody wins anything in a war!

Full scale war unlikely

Kom verder. Saxion.

Another explanation“Institutional” theorists suggest the current troubles in Ukraine are most likely the consequence of the extractive nature of the Ukrainian and Russian government institutions.

In other words: Any move towards the EU with its freedom means a threat for the personal interests of the elite in both Kiev and Moscow.

Kom verder. Saxion.

Inclusive versus Extractive institutions

Inclusive countries: Extractive countries:

- Rule of law - Rule of elite

- Equality for all: - Some are more equal Solid property rights than others

- Aimed at effectiveness - Aimed at interests of and efficiency the ruling class

- Encouragement of - Encouragement of clientelism:Entrepreneurship: incentive to be government Incentive to invest official or politician.

Kom verder. Saxion.

Conclusion2 Different paradigms/truths opposing each other:

EU Russia- Countries should start from - Countries should take cover

their own strengths behind the back of a strong ally (“Protector”)

- International relations are - International relations are a synergetic zero-sum game

- State is instrumental for - State is organic/sacred:supporting quality of life “Motherland”/”Fatherland”

- Rational policies, but could - Emotion driven policiesmean “creative destruction”

Kom verder. Saxion.

Conclusion

The role of the USA in the conflict remains unclear:

The USA government claims to support freedom and security. The Russian government claims that the USA is only fighting for the interest of American politicians and American big business in their quest for world domination.

In what sense is this indeed a geopolitical game in which the EU is squeezed in the middle?

Kom verder. Saxion.

Thank you for your attention!