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Ukraine Crisis: European Energy Wake Up Call?
Dr Cyril WiddershovenBD Manager MENA Oil & GasTNO [email protected]
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About us Our capabilities Our experience
TNO
TNO is a Dutch company with over 80 years experience in technology development and technical consultancy
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Technology development, consulting and contract R&D
Approximately 4000 employees
Revenue: ⅔ from industry, ⅓ from Dutch government
Markets Energy, Defence Safety & Security, Transport & Mobility,
Information Society, Medical and Built Environment
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VIEWS AND OPINIONS ARE NOT
BASED ON TNO RESEARCH
BUT SOLELY FROM AUTHOR!
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Why do we bother about Ukraine?
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Russian Gas Pipelines Europe
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Russian Non-Ukraine Strategy to Europe
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Ukraine Totally Depend on Russian Gas Supply
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European Gas Imports Picture
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EU Russian Gas Consumption and Dependency
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Analysts: Options/Costs Russian-EU Gas Crisis
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Realism to Prevail: Direct Substitution NO OPTION!
EU-28 gas boycot Russian imports unfeasibleCosts are too high, even that Russia will be hit harder!Replacement not available on short termInfrastructure not available for EU-28Gas storage options only feasible NW-Europe/SpainEastern EU member countries still to be hit extremelyNorth Africa-Caspian options available but not on short termWest Africa-East Africa in future?IRAN TO BE NEXT MAIN SUBSTITUTE? TO BE CONSIDERED!
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Available Options/Reserves/Production
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EU Energy Strategy to be Changed!
EU Energy Strategy non-functional at presentNationalism prevails above European liberalisation and energy strategyGerman Energie Wende shows trend towards destabilisation EU energy marketsEU needs One Foreign Energy Strategy for all
- strategy needed to attract as one economic block new partners for
diversification supplies
- strategy needed to support import increase and domestic supply (shale
gas?)
Realism should be there to understand that Energy = International Politics
= Security
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Geopolitics at Present to Rule!
EU-Russia (Gazprom) conflict brooming due to geopolitical issuesRussian geopol based on old Russian dream of ‘Grand Empire’Gazprom (and all others) pawn in Putin’s energy politicsIn contrast to EU-US politicians (Schroder-Blair-Bush) views on Putin, latter is no democratic liberal, but old-fashioned ex-KGB politicianKrim issue only first step in Russian Chess GameFollows NATO-US unability to support Georgia beforePotential new targets EU member-countries and NATO members Estland-Letland-Lithuania. Possibility of Article 5 issue Current crisis Eastern Ukraine needs to be solved. If not, ….!
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Outcome Negative for Western Geopolitical Influence
If NATO-EU is not effective in containing Russian expansion more is to followWashington’s inability to step into Middle East Arab Spring Arena already has eroded Western influence Arab countriesPax Americana could be substituted by Pax RussiaArab countries (including North Africa) are not positive about Western support anymoreCurrently international arena tends to ‘Follow the Leader” principle
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Great Game All Over Again? History Repeats Itself!
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For questions, please contact:
BD Manager MENA Oil & Gas
Dr Cyril Widdershoven
+31 6 53819265
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