Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Slide 1
Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice
Policy: A Step-By-Step Guide
January 25, 2011
Mike Wilson, Oregon Criminal Justice Commission
Lora Krsulich, Vera Institute of Justice
Slide 2
January 25, 2011
Michael Wilson
Oregon Criminal Justice Commission
Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy:
A Step-by-Step Guide
Lora Krsulich
Vera Institute of Justice
Slide 3
The Cost-Benefit Knowledge Bank for Criminal Justice
(CBKB) is a project of the Vera Institute of Justice
funded by the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of
Justice Assistance.
•Website (cbkb.org)
•CBA toolkit
•Snapshots of CBA literature
•Podcasts, videocasts, and webinars
•Roundtable discussions
•Community of practice
Slide 4
Today’s Agenda
Introduction and Housekeeping 5 minutes
Review Data Tables 5 minutes
Calculate the Cost of an Offense
(Example 1)
15 minutes
Apply Cost-Benefit Analysis to
Oregon State Drug Courts
(Example 2)
20 minutes
Question and Answer 10 minutes
Wrap-Up 5 minutes
Slide 5
Housekeeping items
Questions
Use the chat feature to send us
questions during the webinar.
Raise your hand to ask a question
during a question and answer period. I
will call on you and give you
instructions for how to un-mute your
phone line.
Slide 6
Housekeeping items (continued)
Webinar support and troubleshooting
Call: (800) 843-9166
E-mail: [email protected]
Handout
This webinar is being recorded.
Slide 7
Series Preview
You will learn how to:
Assess your state’s return on investment
from criminal justice expenditures
Explain the costs of crime and benefits
from crime avoided
Consume and produce high-quality
cost-benefit analysis
Slide 8
Part 1 Recap
Discussed prison economics and return on
investment from incarceration
Deconstructed costs into their component parts:
estimates, probabilities, and sentencing
distributions
Interpreted an effect size and demonstrated how
effects sizes are used to produce CBA findings
Slide 9
Part 2 Preview
You will learn how to:
Calculate the cost of an offense using
real numbers from Oregon
Build a cost-benefit model
Use cost-benefit analysis in
decision making
Slide 10
Review Data Tables
Slide 11
Table 1: Oregon Cost Estimates
Costs by
crime type
Taxpayer
and victim
costs
Costs by
resource
use
Slide 12
Figure 1: Probability of Arrest, Conviction and Incarceration
Offense
Unreported Offenses
Reported Offenses
No Arrest
Arrest
No Conviction
Conviction
Local Jail
Probation
Department of Corrections
Post-Prison Supervision
Slide 13
Table 2: Estimated Probability of Arrest and Conviction
Probability
offense
reported
Probability
offense
leads to
arrest
Probability
offense
leads to
conviction
Probability
arrest
leads to
conviction
Slide 14
Table 3: Sentencing Distribution
Probability
conviction
leads to
prison
Probability
conviction
leads to jail
Probability
conviction
leads to
probation
Average
length of
sentence
Slide 15
Questions? Please raise your
hand. If the
moderator calls on
you, press *7 on
your phone to
un-mute your line.
Slide 16
Example 1: Calculating the Cost
of an Offense
Slide 17
Example 1
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Victimization $_______
Arrest $_______
Conviction $_______
Adult Corrections $_______
Jail $_______
Probation $_______
Post-Prison
Supervision
$_______
Slide 18
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Victimization:
Out-of-pocket victim costs $7,921 Table 1
Quality-of-life victim costs $12,232 Table 1
Total cost $20,153
Add out-of-pocket costs and quality-of-life
costs.
Slide 19
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Arrest:
Cost of arrest $670 Table 1
Probability of arrest 0.32 Table 2
Total cost $214
Multiply cost of an arrest by probability of
arrest.
Slide 20
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Conviction:
Cost of conviction $4,877 Table 1
Probability of conviction 0.15 Table 2
Total cost $732
Multiply cost of a conviction by probability
of conviction.
Slide 21
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Adult Corrections:
Number of convictions per
offense
0.15 Table 2
Probability of adult corrections
given conviction for assault
0.35 Table 3
Present value of prison costs Must
calculate
Total cost
Multiply number of convictions per
offense by probability of adult corrections
and present value of prison costs.
Slide 22
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Present value of adult corrections costs:
Unit of measurement Measure Source
Cost per year $13,851 Table 1
Average length of
sentence
46.87 months
(4 years)
Table 3
Discount rate 3 percent Common
practice
Slide 23
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Present value of adult corrections costs:
Cost of Year 1 $13,851/(1+0.03)
Cost of Year 2 $13,851/(1+0.03)^2
Cost of Year 3 $13,851/(1+0.03)^3
Cost of Year 4 $13,851/(1+0.03)^4
Total present value $51,485
Add cost per year of imprisonment and
incorporate time value of money.
Slide 24
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Adult Corrections:
Number of convictions per offense 0.15 Table 2
Probability of adult corrections given
conviction for assault
0.35 Table 3
Present value of prison costs $51,485 See previous
slide.
Total cost $2,703
Multiply number of convictions per
offense by probability of adult corrections
and present value of prison costs.
Slide 25
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Use the same formula from prison costs to
calculate the costs for jail, probation, and
post-prison supervision:
Number of convictions
Probability of resource use
Present value of costs
Slide 26
Example 1
What is the estimated cost of an assault?
Victimization $20,153
Arrest $214
Conviction $732
Adult Corrections $2,703
Jail $560
Probation $773
Post-Prison Supervision $553
Total cost $25,688
Slide 27
The cost of an assault and other types of crime
The cost of one assault is $25,688.
It is possible to calculate the cost of multiple
offenses.
It is also possible to change the unit measured
to calculate the cost of fewer arrests,
convictions, inmates, parolees, or probationers.
Slide 28
Questions? Please raise your
hand. If the
moderator calls on
you, press *7 on
your phone to
un-mute your line.
Slide 29
Example 2: Applying cost-benefit analysis
to Oregon drug courts
Slide 30
Example 2: Oregon Drug Courts
Are Oregon’s drug courts cost-beneficial for 100 drug court participants?
Determine the impact of the initiative.
Determine whose perspective(s) matter.
Measure costs.
Measure benefits (in dollars).
Compare costs and benefits.
Slide 31
Determine the impact of the initiative.
Do we have an evaluation of drug courts in
our state?
No, but WSIPP meta-analysis estimates a
crime reduction of about 12% based on 57
studies.
Slide 32
Determine the impact of the initiative.
Other considerations:
Does the effectiveness of the program go
down over time?
Decay rate
What crimes does the program apply to?
How many years out does the program
measure recidivism?
Slide 33
Determine whose perspectives matter.
State, federal, and local funding
Total costs or compared to alternative?
Slide 34
Measure costs.
What we know in Oregon:
How much state funding goes to drug
courts
How many participants
Can estimate state dollars per participant
Don’t know how much local funding
Don’t know how much “business as usual” costs
Slide 35
Measure benefits (in dollars).
Need to be clear on what benefits are being measured
Tax benefits are a mixture of state and local benefits
For Oregon drug court model, most benefits were “costs avoided” (both taxpayer and victim )
Slide 36
Table 4: Recidivism of Drug Court and Property Probationers Convicted in 1997
Slide 37
Table 5: Conviction Distribution for 100 Drug or Property Probationers, 1997
Slide 38
Table 6: Estimated Convictions Avoided for 100 Drug Court Participants
Slide 39
Measure benefits (in dollars).
Taxpayer benefits (avoided costs):
Costs per felony conviction
Average number of convictions per 100
participants (Table 6)
Victimization benefits (avoided costs):
Costs per felony conviction
Average number of convictions per 100
participants (Table 6)
Slide 40
Table 7: Cost of an Adult Felony Conviction
Slide 41
Table 7: Cost of an Adult Felony Conviction
Table 7 changes the unit measured from the cost of an offense (as in Example 1) to cost of conviction.
To calculate cost of conviction, must use cost estimates (Table 1) and probabilities (Table 2).
Number of convictions averted is most common outcome measured in drug court evaluations.
Slide 42
Table 8: Estimated Taxpayer Benefit for 100 Drug Court Participants
Slide 43
Table 9: Estimated Crime Victim Benefit for 100 Drug Court Participants
Slide 44
Compare costs and benefits.
Total costs: $2,000 to $4,000 per participant
Total benefits: $4,100 per participant
For every dollar invested, we avoid $2.05 to $1.02 in costs.
Oregon decided to continue to fund drug courts, in part because of the vast amount of research on effectiveness of drug courts.
Slide 45
Questions?
Mike Wilson
SAC Director/Economist
Oregon Criminal Justice Commission
(503) 378-4850
Slide 46
Wrap-Up
Slide 47
Part 2 Review
Calculated the cost of an offense using real
numbers from Oregon
Built a cost-benefit analysis of an Oregon drug
court
Demonstrated how cost-benefit analysis can be
used in decision making
Slide 48
Series Review
Learned how to:
Assess your state’s return on investment
from criminal justice expenditures
Explain the costs of crime and benefits
from crime avoided
Consume and produce high-quality
cost-benefit analysis
Slide 49
Follow-up
Please complete the evaluation form as you leave this training.
To receive information and notifications about upcoming webinars and other events:
• Visit the Cost-Benefit Knowledge Bank for Criminal Justice at http://www.cbkb.org.
• Follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/CBKBank.
Slide 50
Contact Information
Lora Krsulich
(917) 453-0931
http://www.cbkb.org
Slide 51
This project is supported by Grant No. 2009-MU-BX K029 awarded by the
Bureau of Justice Assistance. The Bureau of Justice Assistance is a
component of the Office of Justice Programs, which also includes the
Bureau of Justice Statistics, the National Institute of Justice, the Office of
Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, and the Office of Sex
Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and
Tracking. Points of view or opinions in this document are those of the
author and do not represent the official position or policies of the United
States Department of Justice.
Slide 52
Thank you!
