Climate change

Features and factors

What does climate change look like?

Climate change can be observed in the global patterns of temperature and precipitation. These changes are often shown as trends. This reflects the gradual shift in climatic patterns. The next set of slides illustrate trend and anomaly patterns.

define the concepts of climate change and the greenhouse effect

Temperature patterns

Australian temperature trends

Precipitation trends

Australian precipitation trends

Rainfall Trends in the SW

Rainfall trends in the north

Australia temperature trend

Australian mean temperatures are calculated from a country-wide network of about 100 high-quality, mostly rural, observing stations. The Bureau of Meteorology has undertaken extensive data rehabilitation to ensure that the temperature records from these sites have not been compromised by changes in site location, exposure or instrumentation over time.

Climate change projections

What will happen in the future is often based on trends from the past. Projections are based on probability and climate modelling.

Projected outcomes

Climate change projections

What changes?If we look a little further at the mechanics of climate change, what we see are changes in the climate system and its main elements (natural systems)

outline the key elements of the following natural systems that drive the Earth’s climates: heat budget, hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, atmospheric circulation.

identify and account for variations in the spatial patterns linked with the heat budget,hydrological cycle, carbon cycle and atmospheric circulation.

With reference to the carbon cycle write a detailed description of the main features of the cycle. Include the;

•Movement or exchange of carbon and the

•Deposits or storages of carbon

With reference to the map of global rainfall variations provided and your geographic knowledge of the hydrological cycle:

•Describe the pattern of rainfall and

•Account for the variation.

Water

Land

Life

AirThe climate

system

The climate system

The Hydrological Cycle

The Heat or Energy Budget&

Greenhouse effect

Global Atmospheric Circulation

The Carbon Cycle

The four main natural systems associated with the climate system

1. What are the mechanics of the systems?

2. Whare are the spatial and temporal variations in the systems?

3. How do these relate to climate change?

The Sun

The global heat or energy budget

The Heat Budget

• Characteristics of the cycle

• Spatial/time Variations – Land & sea, Latitude, Altitude, Day and night, Summer and winter.

• Greenhouse effect – Characteristics and climate impacts.

The Water Cycle

• Characteristics of the cycle

• Spatial/time Variations – Land & sea, Latitude, Altitude, Day and night, Summer and winter.

For either the Heat budget or the Hydrological cycle write a briefdescription of the main characteristics and discuss three spatial variationsassociated with your chosen system.

•For the heat budget this could be spatial variations due to altitude,latitude and seasons.

•For the hydrological cycle this could be spatial variations due to landand sea, mountain or landform influences and pressure systems.

The Carbon Cycle

• Characteristics of the cycle

• Spatial/Time Variations – Carbon storages or sinks and carbon exchanges or fluxes, seasonal and annual rates of change.

• Imbalances between the sources and sinks within the cycle.

• Anthropogenic carbon sources.

Anthropogenic carbon outputFrom WWW.GAPMINDER.ORG

United States

Australia

China

India

Russia

Anthropogenic CarbonAccording to IPCC’s Third Assessment Report:• ‘There is new and stronger evidence that most of thewarming observed over the past 50 years is attributable tohuman activities.• Human influences are expected to continue to changeatmospheric composition throughout the 21st century.’The greenhouse gas making the largest contribution fromhuman activities is carbon dioxide (CO2). It is released byburning fossil fuels and biomass as a fuel; from the burning,for example, of forests during land clearance; and by certainindustrial and resource extraction processes.• ‘Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning are virtuallycertain to be the dominant influence on the trends inatmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century.• Global average temperatures and sea level are projected torise under all (…) scenarios.’

Global atmospheric circulation

Atmospheric circulation

• Characteristics of global circulation

• Spatial/time Variations – Location of high and low pressure systems. Prevailing winds and seasonal movements in wind and pressure systems.

• Changes associated with climate cycles and climate change.

What is the evidence?Evidence for climate change is gained from direct or instrument based measurements and from indirect or proxy based data. Proxy data includes ice core evidence, coral and plant growth evidence and fossil/geologic evidence including coastal landforms.

The Earth’s climate over the last 2.5 million years has been one of fluctuation between glacial and interglacial periods.

There has been strong correlation between CO2 levels, ice volumes and global temperature.

outline the evidence for climate change through geological time, as well as in recent human history e.g. palaeoclimatology, atmospheric circulation changes, sea level changes, enhanced greenhouse effect and frequency of extreme weather events

With reference to an example of climate change that you have studied in a past geological time period:

•Describe the characteristics of the climate change and;

•Provide two pieces of evidence to show that the climate changed.

Ice ages and warm periods

Identify and describe a period or periods in the Earth’s past history when climates were much colder than they are today. Include information on the patterns of precipitation and temperature during this period and the types of climatic conditions experienced by different regions.

Carbon Dioxide trends

Using proxy data

Adding in direct data

What is climate change?

• It is a long-term change in the climate system• It is a shift (trend) in the characteristics of the

heat budget, atmospheric circulation, the carbon cycle and the hydrological cycle.

• It is evidence of past climates and their changes.• It is projected future changes in the climate

system based on the use of trends and modelling.

What is climate variability?

account for climatic cycles and variations in spatial patterns associated with natural processes e.g. solar output, orbit variations, geological patterns and processes, volcanoes, atmospheric gases and chemistry, El Nino and La Nina effects, Pacific decadal cycle, North Atlantic variations, polar ice variations

With reference to a climate cycle that you have studied:

•Describe the cycle

•Account for the cycle

•Discuss the spatial variations associated with the cycle

Climate cycles and Oscillations• They include el nino/la nina, Pacific decadal cycle, Indian

Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic oscillation.• They vary from positive to negative phases which means

above or below average rainfall for the affected regions. For example the la nina phase is when the SOI is positive and above average rain across northern and eastern Australia is predicted.

• They are driven by changes in air pressure patterns and changes in ocean temperatures.

• An increase in the frequency or intensity of the cycle is an indicator of climate change.

• The cycles themselves are indicators of longer term climate variability whereas seasonal variations are short term variations.

• It is important to distinguish between climate variability and climate change.

El Nino La Nina

The SOI is a measure of air pressure over the Pacific Ocean. Positive phases in the index indicate the La Nina Phase. Negative phases are associated with El Nino. La Nina is the normal or above average rainfall period for Northern and Eastern Australia.

2006-2007 was a prolonged drought across Eastern Australia

El Nino event

Climate and people

explain how the following cultural patterns and processes and their interaction with natural systems affect climate change i.e. agricultural land use, urban land use, including power generation, transport, industry,

pollutants and aerosols, human sources of greenhouse gases.• Impact of human activity on the climate system.• Adapting human activity in response to climate

change.• Minimising the impact of human activity on the

climate system (natural systems)

Human impacts and actions

Enhanced greenhouse effect

Mitigate or adapt?

Care of places· discuss the current and proposed strategies implemented to reduce the adverse effects of climate change· discuss how human activity has adapted or may be required to adapt to climate change.

Mitigation is the introduction of changes to human activities that are expected to reduce the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The debate is the extent to which these activities are responsible for climate change and the degree to which the solutions will be successful.

Adaptation is the acceptance of climate change regardless of the causes and the development of strategies to cope with the change. This is the learning to live with it strategy.

Climate change and agricultureexamine the impact of climate change upon the spatial patterns of agriculture or human settlements.

For the selected human activity: AgricultureFactors that impact on decisions about sustainability· outline the extent to which climate change impacts upon sustainability from local to global scales· discuss the key environmental, economic, social and political factors that impact upon decisions about sustainability.Values and viewpoints in people’s use of places· outline the different viewpoints which stakeholders have towards strategies that aim to minimise the effects of climate change e.g. wealthy nations, developing/emerging nations, state and regional governments, environmental groups, multinational corporations, nongovernment organisations.Care of places· discuss the current and proposed strategies implemented to reduce the adverse effects of climate change· discuss how human activity has adapted or may be required to adapt to climate change.

Does this map show the impact of climate change on sustainability of agriculture?

Climate change and urban settlement

For the selected human activity: Urban settlementFactors that impact on decisions about sustainability· outline the extent to which climate change impacts upon sustainability from local to global scales· discuss the key environmental, economic, social and political factors that impact upon decisions about sustainability.Values and viewpoints in people’s use of places· outline the different viewpoints which stakeholders have towards strategies that aim to minimise the effects of climate change e.g. wealthy nations, developing/emerging nations, state and regional governments, environmental groups, multinational corporations, nongovernment organisations.Care of places· discuss the current and proposed strategies implemented to reduce the adverse effects of climate change· discuss how human activity has adapted or may be required to adapt to climate change.

The impact of and on urban settlements

Urban micro-climatesThe heat island

General impacts of climate change

explain the impact of climate change upon spatial patterns in the natural and culturalenvironments

In this chart we see the application of scenarios to the issue of climate change.

Potentially this syllabus point could include projected as well as current impacts

Adapting to climate change

Climate change stakeholders

Now its time to ask the questions

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100623194820/http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/content/en/embeds/flash/4-degrees-large-map-final

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/myths/science.aspx