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MEGA-TRENDS IMPACTING
ON HIGHER EDUCATION
Dirk Van Damme
OECD/EDU/SBS – @VanDammeEDU
2
Ageing Populations
Global Economic Integration
International
inequality
Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage
Changing balance of global power
More satisfied with life?
Lower voter turnout
Skills mismatch
Women in the labour market
and childbirth
More diverse families, generally
smaller and with older parents
Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet
A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies
Migration and
mobility
Urban life
Obesity epidemic
Mega-trends…
3
…and global risks…
4
…and global risks…
…affecting skills demand…
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)
5
…and education itself.
GLOBALISATION
7
Sources: H&M (2015), H&M Worldwide website; Inditex (2015), Our History, Inditex website; Tarzian, JoanMarie (2015), Santander Corporate Communication – International Media Relations; Starbucks (2015), Company Information, Starbucks website; Hoover, Joan (2015), Apple Investor Relations; Spencer, Graham (2015), Contributor, Macstories. 8
Global expansion of multinational companies
The global reach of five companies in food services, garments, banking, and
technology, 1988-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Num
ber
of
Countr
ies
Starbucks
Inditex
H&M
Apple
Migration
Global integration
Trade patterns
Environment
Harmonisation of values
Affluence and
inequality
Democracy and dual
nationalities
GLOBALISATION
9
10
Globalisation also generates inequalities and exclusion.
How strong is the backlash against globalisation among the excluded?
11
Globally connected networks in research
12
Over 50% of scientific papers written in collaboration;
almost 20% in international networks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Multiple authors, international collab. only Multiple authors, international and domestic collab.
Multiple authors, domestic collab. only Single author, multiple affiliations (dom. or international.)
Multiple authors, no institutional collaboration Single author, single institution
No institutional
collaboration
Institutional
collaboration
China17%
United States14%
India14%
Russian Federation
10%
Japan6%
Indonesia4%
Brazil4%
Korea4%
Mexico3%
United Kingdom
3%
France2%
Germany2%
Canada2%
Turkey2%
Spain2%
Poland2%
Argentina1%
Italy1% Australia
1%
Saudi Arabia1%
Other6%
F
137
million
13
Global expansion & redistribution of qualificationsGlobal distribution of tertiary educated 25-34 y-olds in 2013 and 2030
China27%
United States8%
India23%Russian
Federation4%
Japan3%
Indonesia5%
Brazil5%
Korea2%
Mexico2%
United Kingdom
2%
France1%
Germany2%
Canada1%
Turkey2%
Spain1%
Poland1%
Argentina2%
Italy1%
Australia1%
Saudi Arabia3%
Other6%
300
million
China17%
United States14%
India14%
Russian Federation
10%
Japan6%Indonesia
4%
Brazil4%
Korea4%
Mexico3%
United Kingdom
3%
France2%
Germany2%
Canada2%
Turkey2% Spain
2%
Poland2% Argentina
1%
Italy1% Australia
1%
Saudi Arabia1%
Other6%
Share of global graduates 2013
14
United States43.2%
United Kingdom13.8%
Netherlands6.0%Germany
4.3%Canada
4.3%
Australia4.3%
Switzerland3.5%
France3.0%
Japan2.5%
Sweden2.6%
Korea2.2%
Hong Kong2.0%
Other8.4%
Share in academic excellenceTHEWUR 2012
Global distribution of qualifications and
academic excellence
Global integration of qualifications?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ja
pa
n
Fin
land
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Sw
ede
n
Au
str
alia
No
rway
Fla
nd
ers
(B
elg
ium
)
En
gla
nd
(U
K)
Engla
nd/N
.…
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
OE
CD
avera
ge
Po
land
Ca
na
da
No
rth
ern
Ire
land
…
Au
str
ia
Ge
rma
ny
Ire
land
Fra
nce
Denm
ark
Esto
nia
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
lic
Ko
rea
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Sp
ain
Ita
ly
Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education
15
Proportion of 25-64 year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational attainment of the population (2012)
16
Increase of international students - flattening
17
Countries differ in their integration in
international student flows
New Zealand
Australia
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Austria
BelgiumCanada
NetherlandsDenmark Czech Republic
France
FinlandGermanyHungary Ireland
Sweden
Slovak Republic
Latvia
ItalyUnited StatesPortugal
Estonia
Japan Norway LithuaniaRussian Federation SloveniaPoland KoreaTurkey
Chile China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Stu
de
nt
infl
ow
Student outflow
Tertiary
Luxembourg
INSECURITY – RISKS
18
Higher education
Fraud / corruption
Increased private cost / loans
Uncertain outcomes
End of credentialism
Post-truth Alternative
facts
Ideologies
Decreased public
funding capacity
19
Risks are not only coming from outside higher
education, but also are found within
Post-truth, alternative facts
“What, then, are we, the leaders of our institutions of higher education, to do when faced with a president who denies facts, who denies science?”
20
21
22
Commodification of higher education as a risk
23
Public versus private funding of higher education
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Fin
lan
d
No
rway
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Den
mar
k
Au
stri
a
Icel
and
Swed
en
Bel
giu
m
Arg
enti
na
Slo
ven
ia
Ger
man
y
Esto
nia
Po
lan
d
Fran
ce
Latv
ia
EU2
2 a
vera
ge
Slo
vak
Rep
ub
lic
Lith
uan
ia
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Ind
on
esia
Turk
ey
Irel
and
Mex
ico
OEC
D a
vera
ge
Net
her
lan
ds
Hu
nga
ry
Spai
n
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n
Ital
y
Po
rtu
gal
Isra
el
New
Ze
alan
d
Can
ada
Co
lom
bia
Au
stra
lia
Ch
ile
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Un
ited
Kin
gdo
m
%
Public expenditure on educational institutions Household expenditure
Expenditure of other private entities All private sources
End of credentialism?
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012)24
From qualifications to skills
25
From qualifications to skills
26
Credentialism as social security?
27
28
New credentials: open badges, nano-
degrees, micro-credentials,etc.
SOCIAL INEQUALITIESSOCIAL EXCLUSIONWASTE OF TALENT
29
Gini coefficients of income inequality, mid-1980s and
2013, or latest date available
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1985 2013 or latest
Increase Little change Decrease
30
Trends in real household incomes at the bottom, the
middle and the top, OECD average, 1985 = 1
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bottom 10% Bottom 40% middle 50-90% Top 10%
31
Amount of money spent by US households on child
development
32
Average numeracy score by parent educational
background (PEB) and inequality
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
0.18 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38
Nu
mer
acy
sco
re
Inequality (Gini coefficient)
Low PEB Medium PEB High PEB
33
34
Social background impacts on opportunities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ital
y
Slo
vak
Rep
ub
lic
Po
lan
d
Turk
ey
Fran
ce
Sin
gap
ore
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Gre
ece
Spai
n
No
rth
ern
Irel
and
Engl
and
Isra
el
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ch
ile
Irel
and
Au
stra
lia
Lith
uan
ia
Ave
rage
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n
Net
her
lan
ds
Can
ada
Ko
rea
No
rway
Slo
ven
ia
Flem
ish
Co
m.
Ger
man
y
New
Ze
alan
d
Esto
nia
Jap
an
Fin
lan
d
Swed
en
Den
mar
k
Au
stri
a
% At least one parent has attained tertiary education Both parents have less than tertiary educational attainment
Share of 30-44 year-olds who completed tertiary-type A or an advanced research programme, by parents' educational attainment (2012 or 2015)
The engine of social mobility falters
Australia
Austria
CanadaDenmark
Estonia
FinlandFrance
Germany
IrelandItaly
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Spain
SwedenUnited States
Flanders (Belgium)
England/N. Ireland (United Kingdom)
Russian Federation*
Average
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
12345678910
Up
wa
rd m
ob
ilit
y
Odds ratio
inequality of opportunity
low educational mobility
inequality of opportunity
high educational mobility
equality of opportunity
high educational mobility
equality of opportunity
low educational mobility
35
TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS
36
37
New technologies
Social networksDigital
divide
Information as power
Entrepreneurs
Cyberbullying
Cyber security
Biotechnology
Privacy
R&DA BRAVE NEW
WORLD
Trends Affecting Future Skills Demand
38
Mismatch between skills supply and demand
39
Is the delivery of education changing?
Number of MOOCS, 2012-16
41
What will the future be?
globalisation
internationalization
cost-sharing
trade liberalization
accountability
openness
local eco-system
OECD (2008) scenario’s on the future of higher education
