SIMPLIFIED MODELLING FOR DETERMINING POTENTIAL GRAPE

DISEASES

Mapping Grape Suitability in South West Nova Scotia

(SWNS)

Presented by: Kirk Dabols

Presentation Overview

AcknowledgementsBrief history of

Nova Scotia wineNova Scotia grapesNova Scotia grape

diseasesDisease modellingSuitability

modellingProblem contextPurpose of research

Study areaSuitability contextPurpose of researchObjectives Data setsData Preparation

Study Area Weather Stations DSS

MethodologySoil suitabilityData processingStation suitability

Brief History Nova Scotia 2011

French settlers began growing grapes in the 1600’s

Wine industry established in 1980’s

Increasingly steady growth since 1993

Nova Scotia Grapes

Nova Scotia wine industry contributed approximately $200 million dollars to provincial economy

Attracted over 100,000 tourists\ Fourth largest grape producer in

Canada, following Ontario, B.C. and Quebec

22 grape growers and 400 acres

Geography Microclimates

Peninsula on Canada’s east coast between Atlantic Ocean and the Bay of Fundy

Warm ocean currents, prevailing winds, topographical landscape and extreme tides

Unique climate for growing world class grapes

Generally cooler climate

Characterized by latitude, glacial deposits, geographical landscapes and phenomena

Longer frost free periodsIncreased heat

accumulationWind, temperature and

precipitation variation

Nova Scotia Grapes

Wine, Wine, Wine Cultivars

Grape variety? Trellis Location Soil

Depth Ph Drainage

Slope Facing direction Processing Storage Management practices Vineyard management vs. wine

making

Baco Noir De Chaunac Leon Millot Lucie Kuhlmann Marechal Foch L’Acadie Blanc New York Muscat Seyval Vidal blanc Chardonnay Pinot Noir Riesling

Nova Scotia Grapes

Getting technical L’Acadie Blanc

LabruscanaViniferaVitis viniferaHybrids

1984 Helen Fisher and Kentville Research Station

Kentville White Variety KW94-1

Nova Scotia Grapes

Nova Scotia GrapesTable 1: Nova Scotia Grape Varieties.

Red HybridsGrape Origin Description Winter

HardinessBaco Noir France (Baco 1) Folle Blanche x V. riparia crossed in 1902 by Francois Baco. Vines are very

vigorous and difficult to manage after injurious winter. Should be grown on heavy poorly drained soils. Wine is often deep in colour, fruity and herbaceous.

Fair

De Chaunac France Vigorous and productive variety. Clusters are large and loose which require thinning to maintain consistent yields and quality. Wine is considered fair in quality. Requires high heat

units and good canopy management.

Fair

Leon Millot (Millot)

France (Kulhmann194.2) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. This is the sister seedling to Marechal Foch. Compared to Foch, vines are more vigorous, produce smaller berries, and ripen a few days earlier with lower acid levels. Wine is similar taste to

Foch.

Good

Lucie Kuhlmann France (Kulhmann 149-1) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. This is the sister seedling to Marechal Foch. It ripens earlier than Foch and is good for cooler sites.

Good – Very Good

Marechal Foch (Foch)

France (Kulhmann188.2) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. Most common red wine in Nova Scotia because of reliability and productivity. Wine is described

as intense, dark red-violet with distinct complex quality good for producing in cool climates.

Very Good

White HybridsL’Acadie blanc

(L’Acadie)Canada (V. 53261) Seibel 13053 x Seyve-Villard 14-287 crossed in 1953 by O.A. Bradt of the

Horticultural Research Institute of Ontario, Vineland Station. This is the sister seedling to Veeblanc. Wine is described as slightly spicy and has a flowery aroma.

Good

New York Muscat United States of America

Muscat Hamburg x Ontario crossed by Richard Wellington in 1926 at the New York State Agricultural Experiment Station. Vines have low to medium vigor. Productivity is low to

medium. Wine has distinct Muscat flavor and is used to make sweet Muscat wines and for blending.

Good

Seyval France (SV 5276) Seibel 5656 x Seibel 4986 cross made by Seyve-Villard in France. Vines are moderately vigorous and produce large bunches. Prone to over-cropping and winter injury.

Crop size control must exist to ensure maturity in Nova Scotia.

Fair

Vidal blanc (Vidal) France (Vidal 256) Ugni Blanc x Seibel 4986 cross made by J.L. Vidal in France. Vines are vigorous and productive. Vines will suffer winter injury if they become too vigorous on coarse textured soils. Late in ripening and can be potential for ice wine. Quality is good but

challenge to grow in Nova Scotia.

Fair

Vinifera VarietiesChardonnay France Widely grown European grape in Nova Scotia. Moderately vigorous and productive, highly

susceptible to many diseases. Winter hardy, yet still requires a good frost free period. Produces high quality with apple and pear flavors.

Good

Pinot Noir France Considered to be more difficult variety to grow but has the most potential to produce high quality red wine in Nova Scotia’s cool climate. Most susceptible to winter injury but capable

of reliably ripening on warm sites. Compact bunches and thin-skinned berries. There are various clones and should be considered as some will ripen earlier and are hardier.

Poor

Riesling Germany Has a high winter hardiness and suitable for quality wine. Though late ripening season severely affects quality. Has greatest potential for producing high quality sparkling wines and ice wines opposed to still wines. Recommended for Nova Scotia warmest sites only.

Good – Very Good

(AgraPoint 2008 and AgraPoint 2009)

Diseases Parameters

Downy MildewPowdery MildewAnthracnoseGrey MoldBlack RotCrown Gall

TemperaturePrecipitationPast-seasonRelative humidity

Nova Scotia Grapes Diseases

Carisse, et. al., 2006)

Nova Scotia Grape Diseases

Temperature Season

Moisture

Carisse, et. al., 2006)

Management Weather Trends

Frost burnsPruningAir disturbanceOrganic pesticides

Growing degree days

Frost free periodWinter minimumCrop production

Nova Scotia Grapes Management

2014, http://www.practicalwinery.com/marapr05/marapr05p48.htm

Nova Scotia Grapes DiseasesTable : Macro Analysis - Weather Conditions Conducive for Major Grape Diseases in Eastern Canada

Key Factors DiseasesDisease Downy Mildew

Fungus: Plasmopara viticola (Mildiou)

Powdery MildewFungus: Erysiphe necator; (Uncinula necator)

(Blanc, Oidium)

Black RotFungus: Guignardia bidwelli (Pourriture

noire)

Min-Max Temp: 11°C - 28°C 8°C - 32°C 9°C - 32°C

Optimal Temp: 22°C - 26°C 23°C - 27°C 20°C - 25°C

Precipitation: Heavy Rainfall> 10 mm

Dry (cloudy - humid)2.5 mm

Rainy with light showers, rain with heavy showers and water accumulation on ground

0.25 mm

Wetness Duration: 2 -3 hours 12 -15 hours > 6 hours

Relative Humidity: > 98 % 97-99 % Not an added factor

Duration for Infection: 24 hours   2 -3 weeks

Grape Variety(slight susceptibility):

Baco NoirL’Acadie

Lucie KhulmannMarechal Foch

NewYork MuscatSeyval

L’Acadie De ChaunacL’Acadie

Leon MillotNewYork Muscat

Vidal

Grape Variety(moderate

susceptibility):

Vidal Baco NoirDe Chaunac

Lucie KhulmannMarechal Foch

NewYork MuscatResisling

ChardonnayLucie KhulmannMarechal Foch

Seyval

Grape Variety(high susceptibility):

ChardonnayDe ChaunacLeon MillotPinot NoirResiling

ChardonnayLeon MillotPinot Noir

SeyvalVidal

Baco NoirPinot NoirReisling

(Carisse, et. al., 2006; Craig, 2013)

Disease Modelling

Downy Mildew Predictor - DMCast Model

Suitability Modelling

Table: Climatic Limitations to Wine Grape ProductionClimate Rating

Degree Days above 10°C

Frost-free period (days)

Winter Minimum (°C) Suitability Rank

Most Suitable

> 1300 180 -21°C 3 times or less in 10 years.

Minimum not less than -23°C.

4

Good Suitability

1100 - 1300 165 -21°C 5 times or less in 10 years.

Minimum not lower than -26°C.

3

Fair Suitability

900 – 1100 150 -21°C almost every year.-26°C or lower only once in

10 years.

2

Poor Suitability

< 900 130 -23°C 5 times or more in 10 years.

-26°C 3 times or more in 10 years.

1

(Lewis et. al., 2008)

ASDF

Table: Climatic Limitations to Wine Grape ProductionSoil Rating Potential Rooting Depth

(cm)Suitability Rank

Most Suitable > 90 4Good Suitability > 80 3Fair Suitability > 70 2Poor Suitability > 60 1

(Lewis et. al., 2008)

Problem Context

Increasingly growing industry

WANS and GGANS Vineyard management

kitsWeather dataSoil DataSynthesized results

Purpose of Research

The purpose of the research is to develop a GIS model using historical data to evaluate the susceptibility of grape varieties to weather related parameters and be used for future

improvements.

Objectives

1. Use an established set of criteria for indicating certain crop stress and quality.

2. Create a historical weather model of SWNS using provided data sets.

3. Apply criteria to weather model.

4. Analyze and determine the areas of interest.

5. Evaluate the effectiveness and limitations of the model.

The following are research objectives to assist in developing a

GIS model:

Data sets

Environment Canada weather stations (69)

AGRG weather stations (7)

Soil Data (DSS)NS 20m DEMSWNS study area

Data Preparation

SWNS AGRG 2011SWNS AGRG 2012SWNS AGRG 2013SWNS EC 2011SWNS EC 2012SWNS EC 2013

JoinsData reductionClippingAdd X,Y

SWNS Study Area

Weather Stations

Detailed Soil Survey

DSS V2 DSS V3

Soil Suitability

GDD5 2011

Manual selection methodStatisticsSum – (Count x 5)

(ESRI ArcMap, 2014)Calculations:Est. = 225 x 5°C= 1125°CGDD5= 2736.2°C - 1125°C= 1611.2°C

"Station" = 'BACCARO' AND "Year" = 2011 AND "Month" >= 4 AND "Month" <= 11 AND "Mean_Temp" >= 5

Example script for GDD10

Data Processing

Station Suitability GDD at 10°C 2011

Production models Disease models

Temperature modelsGDD5GDD10Frost-free Period

Time of exposure to extreme cold

Winter Minimum

Weather conditions Time of exposure

Moisture Downy Mildew Powdery Mildew Black Rot

Production vs. Disease

"Station" = 'GREENWOOD' AND "Month" >=4 AND "Month" <=11 AND "Min_Temp__" >= 8 AND "Max_Temp__" <= 32 AND "Mean_Temp" >=23

AND "Mean_Temp" <=27 AND "Total_Rain" >= '10'

Methodology

AGRG and EC weather trend production models

AGRG and EC weather trend disease models

Station SUIT = GDD10 SUIT + FFP SUIT + WinMin SUIT + DM SUIT + PM SUIT + BR SUIT

SUIT GDD10 FFP WinMin DM PM BR Soil

1 poor poor poor high high high poor

2 fair fair fair moderate

moderate

moderate

fair

3 good good good low low low good

4 most most most least least least most

Soil dataPython script

Stations Overall Suitability

Existing Model Gaps

Coastal Stations

BR1 vs. BR2

Table 17: Suitability Results for BR1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1745 3 1878 4 1672 4 11GDD10 850 1 917 2 767 1 4

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0        

Black Rot 7   7   7    Soil              

               

Table 18: Suitability Results for BR2 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1931 4 2119 4 2001 4 12GDD10 1030 2 1145 3 1085 2 7

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 100 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   2    

Powdery Mildew

1   3   2    

Black Rot 30   41   22    Soil              

               

Coastal Stations

CH1CL1KE1LI1,3S100S120S80WE1YA1

Table 23: Suitability Results for CH1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1696 4 1912 4 1744 4 12GDD10 839 1 958 2 839 1 4

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 100 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   3    

Black Rot 2   9   8    Soil              

               

Table 29: Suitability Results for CL1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1605 4 1797 4 1443 4 12GDD10 672 1 796 1 488 1 3

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   0    

Black Rot 0   0   0    Soil              

               

Table 34: Suitability Results for KE1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1192 4 1879 4 1695 4 12GDD10 597 1 920 2 780 1 4

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   1   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   0    

Black Rot 4   5   3    Soil              

               

Table 39: Suitability Results for LI1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1811 4 1959 4 1802 4 12GDD10 924 2 989 2 886 1 5

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   1    

Powdery Mildew

0   1   0    

Black Rot 9   14   9    Soil              

               

Table 41: Suitability Results for LI3 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1735 4 1859 4 1657 4 12GDD10 829 1 896 1 748 1 3

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   1    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   1    

Black Rot 7   9   4    Soil              

               

Table 52: Suitability Results for S100 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1440 4 1572 4 1630 4 12GDD10 554 1 659 1 717 1 3

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 100 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   0    

Black Rot 0   1   0    Soil              

               

Table 53: Suitability Results for S120 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1708 4 1823 4 1712 4 12GDD10 803 1 918 2 851 1 4

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 100 4 12

Downy Mildew

1   1   4    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   2    

Black Rot 3   10   13    Soil              

               

Table 63: Suitability Results for S80 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1754 4 1537 4 1766 4 12GDD10 823 2 626 2 840 1 5

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   0    

Black Rot 3   0   8    Soil              

               

Table 77: Suitability Results for WE1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1783 4 1977 4 1786 4 12GDD10 882 1 1000 2 853 1 4

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

1   0   0    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   1    

Black Rot 2   7   7    Soil              

               

Table 84: Suitability Results for YA1 StationProcessing Procedure

Suitability 2011

Suitability Score

Suitability 2012

Suitability Score

Suitability 2013

Suitability Score

Total

GDD5 1801 4 1917 4 1699 4 12GDD10 814 1 936 2 759 1 4

Frost Free Period

             

Winter Minimum

000 4 000 4 000 4 12

Downy Mildew

0   0   1    

Powdery Mildew

0   0   0    

Black Rot 1   3   3    Soil              

               

2012 vs. 2011, 2013

On average 100 GDD10 higher2013 poor frost free periodResults vs. quality of grape3 years vs. 5 years vs. 10

Conclusions and Future Considerations

AGRG station modificationsSite analysis for disease modellingBase criteria for disease developmentTime factor

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank David Colville from the Applied Geomatics Research Group (AGRG) for his time, commitment and assistance on this project. Also, I would like to thank Wayne Reiger from the AGRG who greatly

assisted with providing project data. I would like to thank Josh Horton and Micheal and Jocelyn Lightfoot, from Lightfoot and Wolfville Organic

Vineyards (L&W) who were generous to provide private data for this project. I would like to thank Kevin Keys for providing soil related data for this project. I would like to thank Garett Gaudet for his assistance

with python programming.

References

AgraPoint. (2009).Recommended grape varieties for Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDYQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.perennia.ca%2FFact%2520Sheets%2FHorticulture%2FFruit%2FGrape%2FRecommended_Wine_Grape_Varieties_for_NS.pdf&ei=d878Uo-mIem9yAG0uoHACw&usg=AFQjCNGG8VTnT77Sxku0HFak-wBB_nLPbA  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2014). Download soil name table and soil layer table. Retrieved from http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/nsdb/soil/v2/download.html

Carisse, O., Bacon, R., Lasnier, J., & McFadden-Smith, W. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2006). Identification Guide to the Major Diseases of Grapes. Retrieved from http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/science-and-innovation/science-publications-and-resources/technical-factsheets/identification-guide-to-the-major-diseases-of-grapes/?id=1210281691267#alt  Craig, B. (2013). Grape Management Schedule: A guide to weed, insect and disease management in grapes in Nova Scotia. Perrenia. Retrieved from http://perennia.ca/Pest%20Management%20Guides/Fruits/2013%20Grape%20Insect%20and%20Disease%20Management%20Schedule.pdf Drysdale, C., Webster, T., Mccarthy, C., Ure, D., Kehler D., Spooner I., Brylinsky M., Richard M., Fenech A., Liu8, A., Milne K., Murphy M., Colville D., & Ross A. () Climate Change And Adaptive Resource Management In The Southwest Nova Biosphere Reserve.  Government of Canada. (2014). Climate and Tides. Retrieved from http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/eppp-archive/100/200/301/ic/can_digital_collections/west_nova/climate.html Gadoury, D. M., Seem, R.C., Wilcox, W.F. Kennelly, M. (2005). Epidemology and Control of Grape Downy Mildew.  Hardwick Jones, R., Westra, S., & Sharma, A. (2010). Observed relationships between extreme sub‐daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(22). Integrated Pest Management. (2004). Degree-day Calculation. Retrieved from https://ipm.illinois.edu/degreedays/calculation.html  JOST Vineyards. Grape Growing. Retrieved from http://www.jostwine.com/default.asp?mn=1.25.52

References

Kittilsen, L. (2008). Business Planning and Economics of Wine Grape Production in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/NSAgricultureEconomicsofWineGrapeProduction.pdf Lewis, J. An introduction to grape growing in Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/An%20Intro%20to%20Grape%20Growing%20in%20NS.pdf Lewis, J. C., Jamieson, A., Gordon, R., & Patterson, G. (2008). Opportunities and Challenges for Wine Grape Production in Nova Scotia. http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/Opportunities_and_Challenges_for_wine_grape.pdf Moran, J. (2012). On Nova Scotia Farms: A Teacher’s Guide to Nova Scotia Agriculture. Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://novascotia.ca/agri/documents/education/resources_NSFarmPRF16-sen.pdf Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. (2007). Nova Scotia Farm Winery Policy. Retrieved from http://www.novascotia.ca/agri/mbd/WineryPolicy.pdf. Pesticide Risk Reduction Program, Pest Management Centre & Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2006) Crop Profile for Grape in Canada. Rimerman, F. (2013). The Economic Impact of the Wine and Grape Industry in Canada 2011. Retrieved from http://winesofnovascotia.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/CVA-WANS-Economic-ImpactStudy.pdf

Rieger, W. and Colville, D. (2012). South West Nova Scotia (SWNS) Temperature and Solar Radiation Study: 2012 Project Summary.  Soliman, A., Heck, R. J., Brenning, A., Brown, R., & Miller, S. (2013). Remote sensing of soil moisture in vineyards using airborne and ground-based thermal inertia Data. Remote Sensing, 5(8), 3729-3748. VineTech Canada. (2014). Helps & Tips. AE Media Inc. Retrieved from http://www.vinetechcanada.com/help-tips/ Vierra, T. (2005). Mechanized leaf removal shows good results. Retrieved from http://www.practicalwinery.com/marapr05/marapr05p48.htm Warnert, J. (2007). UC Cooperative Extension advisor researches biodynamic grape production. Retrieved from http://ucanr.edu/News/?uid=991&ds=191 Winery Association of Nova Scotia. (2011) Room to Grow: We are rooted in Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://winesofnovascotia.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/CVA-Study-WANS-Press-Kit.pdf Wines of Canada: Nova Scotia. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.winesofcanada.com/scotia.html