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International Seminar on Indonesia Economic Update Darma Persada University-Japan Sogo Kenkyu Forum at Jakarta, 13 September 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1tcuyqNVbI&feature=plcp
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Name : Dr. Dadang Solihin, SE, MAPlace of Birth : Bandung, 6 November 1961Campus : Darma Persada University Jln Radin Inten II (TerusanCampus : Darma Persada University, Jln. Radin Inten II (Terusan
Casablanca) Pondok Kelapa – Jakarta 13450Office Ph/Fax : +6221 864 9057C ll Ph +6281 2932 2202Cell Phone : +6281 2932 2202PIN BB : 277878F0Email : [email protected] : dadang-solihin.blogspot.comJapan Experience
: 1. Regional Development and Planning Training Course, JICA, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 1999Experience
2. Local Government Administration Training Course, JICA, Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, 2001
3. International Symposium on Intergovernmental Transfers in Asian Countries, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, 2001
4 A i P f G d S h l f A i P ifi S di4. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2004
5. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2005
6 Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies6. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2006
7. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2007
8 Assistant Visiting Professor on Public Administration National8. Assistant Visiting Professor on Public Administration, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo 2012
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OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline• Remarkable Indonesia• Regional Economic Performance• Post Crisis Economic Performance• Persistent Disparity Amidst High
Economic Growth• Master Plan to Accelerate Economic
Growth (MP3EI) and Poverty Reduction (MP3KI)(MP3KI)
• Political Update
Sources:Sources: 1. Ginandjar Kartasasmita (2012)2. Investment Coordinating Board (2012)g ( )
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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD):
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Regional Economic PerformanceRegional Economic Performanceeg o a co o c e o a ceeg o a co o c e o a ceMajor Regions (yoy,%)Major Regions (yoy,%) ASEAN (yoy,%)ASEAN (yoy,%)(y y, )(y y, )
2 9 4,02 7 2 94,0% yoy 16%, yoy2,9 1,82,5 2,02,7 1,7 2,92,04,0 121416 2009 20102011* 2012*-0,7-2,00,0 810-2,6 -4,1-6,0-4,0246
-6,3-8,0 US Europe Japan -20 Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Phillipinap p2009 2010 2011* 2012**ProjectionSource: WEO, IMF Juni 2011
-4*ProjectionSource: WEO, IMF Juni 2011
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GDP Gro thGDP Gro thGDP GrowthGDP Growth
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Wh I d iWh I d i ii M R ili t?M R ili t?Why Indonesia Why Indonesia iis More Resilient?s More Resilient?
• Measures taken in 1998/1999 not only to overcome the ycrises
• but also to better prepare the i t f teconomy against future
(external) economic shocks, establishing safetyestablishing safety mechanism and crisis protocol.
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E port to GDP RatioE port to GDP Ratio1/21/2
Export to GDP RatioExport to GDP Ratio
4540.8
39.1
34 0
40
45
32.7
32.1
34.0
31.029.4
29.930
35
30.5
24.1 24.626.425
15
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Export to GDP RatioExport to GDP Ratio 22/2/2Export to GDP RatioExport to GDP RatioCompared Compared tto Other Regional Countrieso Other Regional Countries
Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Korea Taiwan Hong KongAsian Countries
2006 116.5 47.5 234.4 73.7 39.7 68.0 205.2
2007 110.1 42.9 218.9 73.3 41.9 72.0 207.9
2008 103.0 37.2 233.4 76.4 53.0 73.0 212.4
2009 96.2 32.4 199.9 68.3 49.8 62.3 194.5
2010 97.4 35.0 211.1 71.3 52.4 73.6 222.9
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I d i ’ E t D ti tiI d i ’ E t D ti tiIndonesia’s Export DestinationIndonesia’s Export Destination
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E portE portExport Export
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R piah Mo ementR piah Mo ementRupiah MovementRupiah Movement
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Fiscal Deficit (%)Fiscal Deficit (%)Fiscal Deficit (%)Fiscal Deficit (%)
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Debt ProfileDebt Profile(% GDP)(Trillion Rp)
Debt ProfileDebt Profile47%
39%35% 40%
45%
50%
3,500
4,000
35%33%
28%26% 25% 24%
22% 25%
30%
35%
2 000
2,500
3,000
655 609 652853 754 774 779 824 807 808
22%20%
15%
20%
25%
1 000
1,500
2,000
659 693 737 784 836 902 1,034 1,134 1,205 1,221
655 609 652
0%
5%
10%
0
500
1,000
0%02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Domestic Foreign % GDP (right)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014GDP 2,774 3,339 3,957 4,954 5,613 6,423 7,227 8,120 9,123 10,278Total Debt 1,313 1,302 1,389 1,637 1,590 1,677 1,813 1,958 2,012 2,029
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Debt Debt tto GDP Ratio o GDP Ratio iin Selected Countries (2009)n Selected Countries (2009)
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PRC = People’s Republic of China, UK = United Kingdom, US = United States.1Daily stock price indexes of combined Shanghai and Shenzhen composites, weighted by respective market capitalizationsSource: ADB, 2011
33dadang-solihin.blogspot.com
National Currency ReserveNational Currency ReserveNational Currency ReserveNational Currency Reserve
Net International Reserves
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InflationInflationInflationInflation
Source: BPSdadang-solihin.blogspot.com 35
Source: BPS
PovertyPovertyPovertyPoverty
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Unemplo mentUnemplo mentUnemploymentUnemployment
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Rising Gini RatioRising Gini RatioRising Gini RatioRising Gini Ratio
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Regional DisparityRegional DisparityRegional DisparityRegional Disparity31.9 32.0
30
35
16 917.518.819.619.7
21.223.0
20
25
8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.210.310.711.3
13.914.214.214.615.815.816.116.9
10
15
3.7 4.25.3 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.4
0
5
0
0
Jaka
rta
Bali
Kalse
lBa
bel
Bant
enKa
lteng
Kalti
mKe
ppri
Riau
Sulu
tKa
lbar
Jam
biSu
mba
rM
alut
Sulse
lJa
bar
Sum
utSu
lbar
Jatim
Sum
sel
Sultr
aJa
teng
Sulte
ngYo
gya
ampu
ngen
gkul
uor
onta
loAc
ehNT
BNT
TM
aluk
uP.
Bara
tPa
pua
S La Be Go
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Western vs Eastern IndonesiaWestern vs Eastern IndonesiaWestern vs Eastern IndonesiaWestern vs Eastern Indonesia% RGDP 1980 1990 2000 2010
WI 80 84 83 82
EI 20 16 17 18
% Population 1980 1990 2000 2010
WI 83 82 81 80WI 83 82 81 80
EI 17 18 19 20
GiniCoefficient 2007 2008 2009 2010
WI 0.33 0.31 0.32 0.35
Western Indonesia: Aceh, Sumut, Sumbar, Riau, Kepri, Jambi, Sumsel, Babel, Bengkulu, Lampung, DKI,
WI 0.33 0.31 0.32 0.35
EI 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.38
, , , , p , , , , g , p g, ,Jabar, Banten, Jateng, DIY, Jatim, BaliEastern Indonesia: Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulsel, Sultra, Sulbar, NTB, NTT, Maluku, Malut, Papua, Papua Barat
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Open Unemployment Open Unemployment aandndUnderUnder--employment (2005employment (2005--2010)2010)
2005 2010Open Unemployment (Not Working) 11,9 Million (11,2%) 8,3 Million (7.1%)
Under-employment (Working Less than 35 Hours/Week) 28 9 Million (30 8%) 33 3 Million (30 7%)Under employment (Working Less than 35 Hours/Week) 28,9 Million (30,8%) 33,3 Million (30.7%)
OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDER
33,5
LLIO
N)
12
MIL
LIO
N)
33,311,9
10 9
OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDER2001 - 2010
30,9
32,2
YMEN
T (M
IL
10
11
OYM
ENT
(M
30,431,1
31,6
9,1
9,910,3
10,9
10,09,4
9 0
27
28,3
29,6
ER-E
MPL
OY
7
8
9
EN U
NEM
PLO
27,7
28,929,2
27,9
28,9 29,18,0
9,08,3
27
UN
DE 7
OPE2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
UNDER-EMPLOYMENT OPEN EMPLOYMENT
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Unemployment by AgeUnemployment by Agep y y gp y y g3.500.000
Age 15-243.000.000
Age 15-24 Years %
2007 (Ø) 352.500.000
31%29%
2008 (Ø) 292009 (Ø) 28
1 500 000
2.000.000
NE
MP
LOY
ED
15 -19
29%2010 (Ø) 29
1.000.000
1.500.000 UN 19
20 -2425 -2930 -
Ø = Average February and August
500.000
3435 -3940 -4445 -
-2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 *)
4950 -54
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Imbalance Economic Imbalance Economic aandndEmployment StructuresEmployment StructuresEmployment StructuresEmployment Structures
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE2010
EMPLOYMENT STRUCTUREFebruary 2011
Mining (11,15%)
Agriculture (15,34%)
Transportation (6,50%)
Finance (7,21%)
Services (10,19%)
Agriculture (38,17%)Transportation (5,02%)Finance (1,85%)
Social Services (15,30%)
y
Manufacturing (24,82%)
Trading (13,72%)
C t ti (10 29%)
Mining (1,22%)
M f t i (12 31%)
Trading (20,88%)
Construction (5,02%)
Unemployed
g ( , )Construction(10,29%)
Electricity(0,78%)
Manufacturing (12,31%)Construction (5,02%)Electricity, gas, water (0,23%)
Unemployed7%
Manufacturing/Industry
Others15%
0%
y6%
Agriculture72%
Poor Householddadang-solihin.blogspot.com 44
Poor Household
Imbalance Imbalance iin Land Available n Land Available ffor or Farming Households (%)Farming Households (%)
GINI RATIOGINI RATIO 0.562HouseholdsLand
Source: BPS
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Tradables and Non Tradables Tradables and Non Tradables i GDP 2001i GDP 2001 2010 (%)2010 (%)in GDP 2001in GDP 2001--2010 (%)2010 (%)
8,9610,00
7,13 7,81
7,43
8,96 8,55 8,19
7 00
8,00
9,00
4,89 5,28
6,30 6,02
5,00
6,00
7,00
3 81 3.85
5 03 5,69 5,506,35 6,01 6,103,00
4,00
5,00
2.64
3.863.51 3.23 3.72 3.47
3.81 3.853.05
3,644,50 4,78 5,03 , 5,50
4,58
1,00
2,00
0,002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PDB Sektor non tradable Sektor tradableNon TradableGDP TradableSektor tradable: (1) Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Forest and Fishery, (2) Mining (3) Manufacturing Industry.
Sektor non-tradable: 1. Electricity, Gas, Clean Water, 2. Construction, Trading, Hotel, and Restaurant, 3. Transportation and Communication, 4.Finance, Real Estate and Corporate Service, 5. Social Services.
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Human Development Index Human Development Index ppIndonesia, 1980Indonesia, 1980--20112011
Source: Human Development Report – UNDP, 2011
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HDI Asean 2010HDI Asean 2010HDI Asean 2010HDI Asean 2010Country
2010L l I d
yLevel Index
Singapore 27 0.846Brunei 37 0 805Brunei 37 0.805
Malaysia 57 0.774
Thailand 92 0 654Thailand 92 0.654
Phillipines 97 0.638
Indonesia 108 0 600Indonesia 108 0.600Viet Nam 113 0.572
Cambodia 124 0 490Cambodia 124 0.490
Myanmar 132 0.451
# Countries 169# Countries 169In 2009 Indonesia’s HDI was 111Source: HDR 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations (UNDP)
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( )
HDIHDI bby Componentsy ComponentsHDI HDI bby Componentsy Components(Selected Countries, 2011)(Selected Countries, 2011)
Life Expectancy Means Years Of Schooling
Expected Years Of Schoolingg g
Philippines 68.7 8.9 11.9China 73 5 7 5 11 6China 73.5 7.5 11.6Thailand 74.1 6.6 12.3Malaysia 74 2 9 5 12 6Malaysia 74.2 9.5 12.6Indonesia 69.4 5.8 13.2Viet Nam 75 2 5 5 10 4Viet Nam 75.2 5.5 10.4
Source: HDR 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations (UNDP)
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MP3EIMP3EIMP3EIMP3EINumber of Projects and Amount of InvestmentNumber of Projects and Amount of Investment
2011 2012Institution Investment
(Rp. Trillion)Project No. Investment
(Rp. Trillion)Project No.
Government 76.6 24 66.2 15SOE 131 24 90.3 20Private 168.6 38 301.6 38Mix 128.3 8 78.2 11Total 490.5 91 356.3 84
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Investment Plan Investment Plan aandnd Employment Created Employment Created bby y Economic Corridor ActivitiesEconomic Corridor ActivitiesEconomic Corridor ActivitiesEconomic Corridor Activities
Investment (Trillion Rupiah) New Employment SUMATERA; 35,6 JAWA; 117,2
PAPUA-
SUMATERA; 93,9 JAWA; 188,0KALIMANTAN;
1.074,2
p y(Thousand)
KALIMANTAN; 488 ,1
PAPUAKEPULAUAN
MALUKU; 440,9
SULAWESI; 693,4PAPUA-
KEPULAUAN ;,MALUKU; 3.422, 4
SULAWESI; 189,7
BALI-NUSA TENGGARA; 57,, 1
BALI-NUSA TENGGARA; 241,0
INVESTMENTR 1 328 6 T illi
SUMATERA JAWA KALIMANTAN SULAWESI BALI-NUSA TENGGARA PAPUA-KEPULAUAN MALUKU SUMATERA JAWA KALIMANTAN SULAWESI BALI-NUSA TENGGARA PAPUA-KEPULAUAN MALUKU
Rp. 1.328,6 Trillion
NEW EMPLOYMENT5.713,0 Thousand
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,
Employment Employment tto o bbe Created e Created iin Each Economic Corridorn Each Economic CorridorSUMATERA CORIDOR
KALIMANTAN CORIDOR SULAWESI CORIDORSUMATERA CORIDORLeading Sector: Palm Oil, Coal, and JSS (Sunda Strait Bridge)
Leading Sector: Steel, Bauxite; Palm Oil, Coal; Oil and Timber
Leading Sector: Nickel; Agriculture Food; Oil; Cocoa and Fisheries
JAWA CORIDOR
Leading Sector: Food BALI-NUSA TENGGARAPAPUA-MALUKU ISLANDS CORIDORg
Beverages, Textiles; Transportation Equipment; Shipping; iron steel, and defense
CORIDOR
Leading Sector: Tourism, Livestock and Fisheries
Leading Sector: Nickel; Copper; Agriculture Food; Oil and Fishing
NEWEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand)
93,9 188,0 1.704,2 693,4 241,0 3.422,4
NEWEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand)
NEWEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand)
NEWEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand)
NEWEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand)
NEWEMPLOYMENT
(Thousand)
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Clusters Clusters oof Poverty Alleviation Programsf Poverty Alleviation Programs
3rd CLUSTER
Micro- & Small-scale Enterprise Empowerment1ST CLUSTER
2nd CLUSTER[Facilitate with fish rod]
3 CLUSTER[Assist to have fish-rod & boat]
Assistance &Social Protection Programs
Community Empowerment Programs
Block grants for 6,408 sub-
p p
Micro credits provision (< Rp 5 million) through
banks, & other types of
[Provide fish]
Target: 17.5 mil. poor HH: rice subsidy, cash transfers, health
i & h l hi
gdistricts (rural, urban, dis-
advantaged regions, regional & village infrastructures)
PNPM Mandiri
, ypfinancial assistance
insurance, & scholarships
Target: the poorest, poor
Target: poor communities of subdistricts
Target: SMEs
4th Cluster& near poor Households
4 Cluster
6 Pro-Poor Programs and 3 additional
programs
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programs
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Political UpdatePolitical UpdatePolitical UpdatePolitical Update• Indonesia is coping well with
democratic imperatives.– Strong parliament– Strong media– Strong civil society
• Indonesia’s Democracy: t bl ib t d d istable, vibrant and dynamic.
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• Political temperature is rising ahead of 2014 Parliament and Presidential Election.
• With democracy comes:– Human rights– Freedom of association
F d f i– Freedom of expression– Etc.
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• Giving rise to conflicts:Sectarian– Sectarian
– Environmental– Local interest– Labor and wage disputes
• Political implications of economic policiessubsidy issuepolicies subsidy issue
• Governance and CorruptionGovernance and Corruption Issues.
• These are the challenges that gIndonesia as a young, functioning democracy has the cope with, wisely peacefully and fairlywisely, peacefully and fairly.
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IndonesiaIndonesia JapanJapanIndonesiaIndonesia--JapanJapan
BILATERAL G to G BILATERAL
REGIONAL
G to G
REGIONAL G to P MULTILATERAL P to G
P to PP to P
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