Hazards, Risks and Disasters I

David Alexander University College London

• Theoretical basis

• Organisation of the field

• Emergency planning and management

• Information, perception and education

• Conclusion: challenges for the future.

Plan of this two-part lesson:-

A basis of theory

Resilie

nce

Synonyms and approximations

Some characteristics of large emergencies

• the context of risk and vulnerability

can transform an incident into a disaster.

• 10% require a qualitative change

in management techniques

• 90% of emergencies do not

require special procedures

• events that cannot be managed

with normal resources

Catastrophe

Disaster

Major incident

Incident

...but there are no quantitative definitions...

International

National

Regional

Municipal

Partly after Tierney (2008) Incidents

Major incidents

Disasters Catastrophes

Impact Very

localised Generally localised

Widespread and severe

Extremely large

Response Local

efforts Some mutual assistance

Inter- governmental

response

Major international

response

Plans and procedures

Standard operating

procedures

Emergency plans

activated

Emergency plans fully activated

Plans potentially

overwhelmed

Resources Local

resources Some outside

assistance

Interregional transfer of resources

Local resources

overwhelmed

Public involvement

Very little involvement

Mainly not involved

Public very involved

Extensively involved

Recovery Very few challenges

Few challenges

Major challenges

Massive challenges

Emergency planning and organisation of security systems

Warning and preparations;

damage prevention measures

Emergency action and damage

limitation measures

Restoration of basic services

Safety and security measures

Time

Resp

onse

Emergency isolation phase

Major incident declared

Consolidation phase

Recovery phase

Investigation

Stand-down

Funerals Debriefings

Anniversaries Plan revision

Inquests Public enquiries

Trials Awards

Memorials Training

Court cases

Anatomy of a major incident

Hazard monitoring & forecasting

Population (community) protection

Disaster management

Major incident

management

Incident management

Policies Plans Procedures Protocols

Human & material resources

Disaster risk reduction

Incident management

Population (community) protection

Plans, procedures, protocols

Human and material resources

Hazard forecasting, monitoring,

etc.

Organisation Resources

Self-organisation

Imposed organisation

Volunteerism

Community disaster planning

Laws, protocols, directives

Standards, norms, guidelines

Community resources

Governmental resources

Donations

International resources

Volontary sector:

support and integration

Private sector:

integration

Disaster

Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations

Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance

Nation: policies of compatibility, harmonisation

and co-ordination

International: exchange and support

Harmonisation from above (national or regional levels)

Organisation and growth from below (local level: municipalities, volunteers, etc.)

Central control

Devolution

Local incident Local response A

Threshold of local capacity

Small regional

incident Co-ordinated local response B

Threshold of intermunicipal capacity

Major regional

incident

Intermunicipal and

regional response B

Threshold of regional capacity

National disaster

Intermunicipal, regional

and national response C

Threshold of national capacity

International

catastrophe

Ditto, with more

international assistance C

Devolution Centrism

Nation state

Municipality

Civil protection Civil defence

Nation state

Municipality

Global Supernational National

National

Regional

Local

Disaster relief as a barter market for resources

DONATE

REQUEST

ALLOCATE

DEMAND

The natural tendency from above subordinate control repress restrict

The less than natural tendency from above

harmonise negotiate

support accommodate

act autonomously empower enable liberate The natural tendency from below

conform cede

comply submit

The less than natural tendency from below

The pressures of devolution and centrism

Organisational systems: management

Social systems: behaviour

Natural systems: function

Technical systems:

malfunction

Vulnerability Hazard

Resilienc

e

Lesson: There are functional differences between the responses

to each level of incident or disaster.

Civil Protection and Civil Defence

Emergency preparedness has reached a crossroads....

A new class

of disaster?

Forms of disaster

Natural: earthquakes,

floods, landslides, etc.

Social: riots, mass gatherings,

demonstrations

Intentional: acts of

terrorism

Technological: toxic spills,

transportation crashes, etc.

"Homeland security"

"Civil contingencies" management

Business continuity

management Complex emergencies

Civil protection

The security industry

Emergencies and disasters

Homeland security:

is reduction in civil liberties

acceptable?

What relationship of business continuity

management with civil

authorities?

Complex emergencies: How much aid from donor countries?

Civil protection: what degree of political support?

What role for the security industry in the general emergency?

What are the limits of civil contingencies management?

Emergencies and disasters

Natural

disasters

Techno-

logical

disasters

Social

disasters

Inten-

tional

disasters

Natural Anthropogenic

Civil

defence

Civil contingencies

and Resilience

Civil

protection

"Homeland

Security"

Civil Defence Civil Protection

Instability threats

Enhanced natural hazards

Complex hazards

Natural hazards

Evolving strategic situation

Large technological

hazards

Evolving climate change

'Na-tech' (hybrid) hazards

Major geophysical

events

Armed aggression on the part of states

Civil defence

Natural disasters

Civil protection

"Homeland security" (civil defence) Armed aggression on the part of

groups of dissidents

"Generic" disasters

"Civil contingencies" (resilience)

Paramilitary forces (National Guard)

Military forces

Police forces

Fire brigades

Public administrations

Civilian volunteer forces

PMF

MF

FB PA

CVF

PF

Italy

PMF

MF

FB PA

CVF

PF

UK

CVF

PMF

MF

FB PA

PF

USA

Locus of control

Locus of collaboration

(support)

Tension of opposites

Command function principle

Support function principle

Spectrum of alternatives

Locus of control

Locus of collaboration

(support)

Directed.......Ungovernable

Control.......Loss of control

Order..................Chaos

Initiative.......Obey orders

Collaboration.."Freelancing"

Autonomy.........Constraint

Military Civilian Armed Civil administration forces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services (army) [residual role] Civil defence Civil protection Command and control Co-ordination and co-operation Chain of command Autonomy

Emergency management: an evolutionary approach

Proxy Participatory

Civil defence...............Civil protection

Command and control Vertical chain of command Population excluded Law and order Secrecy

Collaboration Task forces

Population consulted and included

Problem solving Openness

Humanitarian assistance

Domestic disaster relief

Domestic civil institutions: • local • regional • national

Foreign civil institutions: • local • regional • national

International organisations and NGOs: UN, IFRC, etc.

Military aid to civil authorities and communities

Broader scope and outcomes

Changing objectives of emergency management

Civil Protection

Disaster Management

Resilience

Civil Contingencies Management

Disaster Risk Reduction

Scientists

Hazard

Evaluation

Administrators

Risk communication

Decision to warn

General Public

Warning

Protective action

The warning process

Organisational Social Technical

Lesson: There are functional differences between the responses

to each level of incident or disaster.

Counter-Terrorism

• the age of CBRN?

• civil protection with a more restricted scope?

• emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations

• the resurgence of civil defence

• secrecy: "the public does not need to know".

Homeland security

• Terrorism is a form of teleological disaster (i.e. piloted)

• it is potentially infinitely mutable

• designing remedies is a very expensive process

• the scenarios are highly debatable.

Aum Shinrikyo (the "Religion of Supreme Truth")

20 March 1995 attack on five Tokyo metro trains:- • 5,510 people affected • 278 hospitals involved

• 98 of them admitted 1,046 inpatients • 688 patients transported by ambulance • 4,812 made their own way to hospital.

Dead: 12 Critically injured: 17 Seriously ill: 37 Moderately ill: 984 Slightly ill: 332

• 110 hospital staff and 10% of first responders intoxicated

• "Worried well": 4,112 (85% of patients).

Aum Shinrikyo attack (1995)

• a small, concentrated attack with a highly toxic substance: 210Po

• 30 localities contaminated

• tests on hundreds of people

• a strain on many different agencies

• problems of determining who was responsible for costs of clean-up.

The case of Alexander Litvinenko

'Hot' area (contaminated)

'Warm' area (decontamination)

'Cold' area (clean treatment) >300 m upwind

PPE level A (contaminant unknown)

PPE level B (contaminant known)

PPE level D

Medical staff and

first responders

PPE level C

PPE=personal protection equipment

The principal effect of terrorism on the

general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of

normal daily life...

...with huge costs to society.

Laboratory error with

CBR emissions

Sabotage with poisonous agent

Nuclear emission (NR)

Disease epidemic or pandemic (B)

Terrorist attack with C, B, R or N contaminants

Industrial or military accident with CNR emissions

Chemical, biological

or nuclear warfare (CBN)

Industrial accident

Medical accident

Nuclear accident

Epiphytotic (food chain)

Epizootic (food chain)

People (victims)

CBRN attack

Organisation • procedures • event scenarios • emergency plans

Intelligence • collection • interpretation • warning

Training • plan dissemination • exercises

Stockpiling • equipment • supplies

Surveillance • automatic (CCTV) • manual (personnel)

Analysis • laboratory • forensic

Counter-terrorism activity

Involvement of civil protection

Lesson: counter-terrorism activities have had a profound impact on the organisation

of other forms of disaster response.

Planning

Emergency environment

Emergency procedures

Emergency co-ordination

plan Spontaneous

imnprovisation

Results Operations

Procedures

Plans

Policies

Command systems • operations centres • task forces • communications • chains of command

Division and

integration

Hierarchical divisions

National, regional, local, etc.

Geographical divisions

Catchments, jurisdictions, areas, etc. Organisational

divisions

Police, Ambulance, Fire, etc.

Functional divisions

Government, healthcare,

commerce, etc.

Incident

Contingency planning in the pre-emergency phase (days)

Emergency response planning

Permanent emergency plan

Operational planning

Short-term strategic planning (hours → days)

Short-term tactical planning (hours)

Recovery and reconstruction

planning

Strategic, tactical & operational planning

Aftermath

Disaster

Monitoring prediction & warning

Permanent emergency plan

Business continuity plan

NATIONAL EMERGENCY PLAN

REGIONAL AND COUNTY OR PROVINCIAL EMERGENCY

PLANS

MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY

PLAN

MUTUAL ASSISTANCE

PACTS

AIRPORT AND TRANSPORT EMERGENCY

PLANS

HOSPITAL AND HEALTH

SYSTEM EMERGENCY

PLAN

INDUSTRIAL AND

COMMERCIAL EMERGENCY

PLANS

CULTURAL HERITAGE EMERGENCY

PLAN

Disaster

in the medical

centre

Disaster

in the system

of medical

centres

Disaster

in the external

environment

Disaster

planning for

the medical

centre

Disaster

planning

for the system

of medical

centres

Disaster

planning for

the external

environment

Co-ordinated

EMS Disaster

plans

Planning • scenarios • risk analysis • emergency plans • protocols

Organisation • comand structure • task forces • operations centres • communications

Preparation • education & training • exercises • plan dissemination • revision of plans

Resources • materials • vehicles, equipment • communications • manpower

Lesson: planning for emergencies and crises should be a continuous process, not an end.

David Alexander david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk

emergency-planning.blogspot.com www.slideshare.net/dealexander

Thank you for your attention!