Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development

An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural Disasters

Ajay Chhibber Director, Independent Evaluation Group

World Bank

The Five Main Messages of the Report

1. Hazards Are Created by Nature, Disasters Are Man-Made.

2. Be more Proactive: Reduce Vulnerability and Strengthen Response Capability.

3. Involve Local Communities for Lasting Recovery.

4. Develop better Global and Market-Based Financing Mechanisms.

5. Integrate Disaster Risk into Development Strategy.

Natural Disasters Are Growing In Number

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database-www.em-dat.net-Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels.

Risks Are Highly Concentrated

High = over 50% of GDP at risk; Medium = 30-50%; Low = <30%.

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Floods and Windstorms on the Rise

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F lo o d W i n d S to r m E a r th q u a k e D r o u g h t S li d e s

W i ld F i r e s V o lc a n o I n s e c t I n f e s ta t i o n W a v e / S u r g e

Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Databasewww.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"

Turkey Is at Great Risk for Disasters

One of the most seismically active countries in the world

More than 95% of country’s land is at risk of earthquakes

70% of the population is vulnerable to seismic risk

75% of the industrial facilities are located in earthquake-prone areas

Within the Region, Turkey Is One of the Most Disaster-Prone Countries

Turkey Experiences the Most Earthquakes in the Region

Number of Disasters Rising in Turkey

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1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5

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Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Databasewww.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"

Disaster Types in TurkeyN a t u r a l D i s a s t e r s i n T u r k e y 1 9 8 4 - 2 0 0 5

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1

2

3

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E a r t h q u a k e F l o o d S l i d e s W i l d F i r e s W i n d S t o r m

Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Databasewww.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"

World Bank Has Provided Considerable Funding for Disaster-Related Activities in Turkey

World Bank Natural Disaster Activity in Turkey

Approval FY

Project Name Disaster Loan Amount

(US$millions)

Completion Date

1993 Eastern Anatolia Watershed ProjectErosion management

77 30-Sept-01

1993Earthquake Rehabilitation & Reconstruction

Earthquake and landslides

285 30-Jun-00

1999 Emergency Flood RecoveryEarthquake and flood

369 30-Jun-02

2000 Emergency Earthquake Recovery Earthquake 252 31-Mar-01

2000Marmara Earthquake Emergency Recons.

Earthquake 505 31-May-05

2003Anatolia Watershed Rehabilitation Project

Erosion management

32  Ongoing

2005 Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation Earthquake 400  Ongoing

TOTAL 1920

Hazards Are Created by Nature,

Disasters Are Man-Made.

Finding #1:

Impact on Developing Countries Large

98 percent of the 211 million people affected by natural disasters each year from 1991 to 2000 were from developing nations (IFRC 2001).

Damages represent a large portion of GDP in some countries.

The poor are often the hardest hit.

Same Size Disaster, Different Effect

Events can have disastrous effects on buildings and infrastructure that are: Poorly located, Inadequately designed, and Badly constructed

Northridge vs. Armenia France vs. Venezuela India 1977 vs. 1990 Bangladesh 1970 vs. 1997

Be more Proactive: Reduce Vulnerability and

Strengthen Response Capability.

Finding #2:

Reactivity Means...

Countries repeatedly borrow for disasters. Project objectives provide for short-term fixes

and rarely address the root causes of disaster. Without careful early planning, implementation

gets delayed. Reconstruction projects build infrastructure that

is not disaster resilient. Social issues are given too little importance.

Proactivity Means…

Response teams and lessons are identified in advance.

Risk assessment and mitigation receive adequate attention.

Financing mechanisms are in place to avoid disruption of long-term development.

Ways to increase disaster resiliency have been identified for sectors likely to be affected.

Some Critical Elements in Building Resilience

Enforcement of building codes and land use plans critical.

Maintenance of essential infrastructure is key to protection from future catastrophes.

Temporary shelter, if needed, should be built solidly enough to withstand subsequent disasters.

Turkey Is Getting more Proactive

Reducing the impact of future earthquakes.

Strengthening regional emergency management capabilities.

Seismic strengthening of Istanbul.

World Bank-Funded Projects in Turkey—Focus on Mitigation Has Increased

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Erzincan1992

TEFER1998

MEER 1999 ISMEP 2005

$ m

illion

s

Recovery andReconstruction

Disaster Mitigationand Preparedness

Involve Local Communities for Lasting Recovery.

Finding #3:

Community Participation Is Critical to Success

Enhances sustainability and ownership Without it, solutions often fail to solve stakeholder

problems

Example: 1993 Argentina Flood Rehabilitation Project, Beneficiaries involved in all stages of the project Interaction between beneficiaries and the local authorities

resulted in: Timely availability of construction materials The accommodation of local customs in the architectural

design of new houses Ownership among beneficiaries Increased maintenance.

What Has Worked?

Ensuring beneficiary views are heard Cash support Providing livelihoods opportunities. Working at the finer-textured, smaller-scale

level Mitigate to reduce the impact of disaster

Preserve pre-disaster social networks, proximity to jobs

Promote in-situ reconstruction Integrate the new settlements into the

urban fabric Include renters where possible Include beneficiaries in the design process Issue the title in the female’s name

Fostering Stable Urban Communities: Selected Housing Lessons

Develop Better Global and Market-Based

Financing Mechanisms.

Finding #4:

Global and Regional Initiatives

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

UN Central Emergency Relief Fund (CERF) CERF Expanded: The UN Central

Emergency Revolving Fund The Special Emergency Assistance Fund for

Drought and Famine in Africa (SEAF)

The Bank is Exploring New Mechanisms to Help Lay off Risk

Contingency lines of credit Catastrophe insurance pool Insurance for public buildings Drought insurance Micro insurance Index-based insurance Catastrophe models to facilitate coverage

The Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP)

Benefits: extend liquidity to homeowners, reduce government liability, and lessen dependence on foreign donors in the event of future disasters.

Launched in September 2000 Covers $1 billion in damages in the event of a

disaster Average annual premium of $20 brought the

scheme significant penetration initially (the average is currently $46)

2.5 million policies Public awareness campaign

Progress of the TCIP

More than tripled the level of insurance penetration for earthquake coverage.

Demonstrated its ability to pay claims quickly in a number of small- and medium-sized earthquakes.

If the draft Earthquake Insurance Law is passed, it could increase penetration further, but so far this has not happened.

Currently investigating several measures to increase the number of policy holders.

Integrate Disaster Risk into Development Strategy.

Finding #5:

Risk Mitigation and Risk Transfer Critical, Given that Natural Events Are Sure to Happen

Natural hazard risks are highly concentrated

Special attention needed for countries at highest risk: Planning ahead Reducing long-term vulnerability

But Country Programs that Should Discuss Natural Disasters Do Not

Number of disaster projects in a country

No. of countries with this count

Number of their Country Programs with no

discussion of disasters (%)

More than 8 disaster projects 16 5 31%

4 to 7 disaster projects 24 8 33%

2 to 3 disaster projects 33 15 45%

1 disaster project 24 15 62%

Total 97 43 44%

Source: IEG data.

The Five Main Messages of the Report

1. Hazards Are Created by Nature, Disasters Are Man-Made.

2. Be more Proactive: Reduce Vulnerability and Strengthen Response Capability.

3. Involving Local Communities Is Vital for Lasting Recovery.

4. Better Global and Market-Based Financing Mechanisms Are Needed.

5. Integrate Disaster Risk into Development Strategy.

Report website: http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/?intcmp=5254248