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Monday, March 7, 2011

GEOG3839.12, Temperature reconstructions

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Page 1: GEOG3839.12, Temperature reconstructions

Monday, March 7, 2011

Page 2: GEOG3839.12, Temperature reconstructions

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Ramzi Touchan University of Arizona

Photograph: Ramzi TouchanMonday, March 7, 2011

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Dendroclimatology in Algeria

Photograph: Ramzi TouchanMonday, March 7, 2011

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Source: Ramzi Touchan, University of ArizonaMonday, March 7, 2011

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ENVIRONMENTALQUESTIONS

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forest fires

floods

earthquakes

rising temperatures

insect ecologywater quantity

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CLIMATERECONSTRUCTION

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Source: Hughes and Funkhouser, 1998

tree rings

rain gauges

empirical comparisons between tree-ring and climate data

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Ring-width index

correlation coefficients as a measure of climate signal

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Correlation functions illustrating assocations between tree growth and climate

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‘Reconstructing climate’ based on statistical associations

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R E C O N S T R U C T I N G T E M P E R AT U R E

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2010 Jan-Aug temperature anomaly h"p://www.giss.nasa.gov/Monday, March 7, 2011

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Photograph: MariannaMonday, March 7, 2011

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NASA global temperature record h"p://www.giss.nasa.gov/Monday, March 7, 2011

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Temperature-sensitive trees Northeastern AlaskaMonday, March 7, 2011

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Brian Luckman University of Western Ontario

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St. George, S., and Luckman, B.H. 2001. Extracting a paleotemperature record from Picea engelmannii treeline sites in the central Canadian Rockies. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31, 457-470.

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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THE PRINCIPLE OF ECOLOGICAL AMPLITUDEA tree species may grow and reproduce over a certain range of habitats; that range is described as its ecological amplitude. Trees that grow near the margins or limits of their ecological amplitude are o!en sensitive to changes in their environment.

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empirical comparisons

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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“HIGH”and

“LOW”FREQUENCY

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Photograph: Gigi TagliapietraMonday, March 7, 2011

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Photograph: protographer23

“HIGH” FREQUENCY

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Photograph: Phil Moore

“LOW” FREQUENCY

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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CORRELATIONFUNCTION

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001

most sites

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001

most sites

furthestnorth

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Page 49: GEOG3839.12, Temperature reconstructions

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001

most sites

‘oddball’ site

furthestnorth

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LINEARREGRESSION

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

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LINEARREGRESSION

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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007Monday, March 7, 2011

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Photograph: Mark AnbinderMonday, March 7, 2011

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SURFACE TEMPERATURERECONSTRUCTIONSFOR THE LAST 2 ,000 YEARS

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCILOF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

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the ‘divergence problem’ is defined as the tendency for tree growth at some previously temperature-limited northern sites to demonstrate a weakening in mean temperature response in recent decades.

Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008Monday, March 7, 2011

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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008Monday, March 7, 2011

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“Trees are not thermometers or rain gagues.” Keith Briffa and colleagues

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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008Monday, March 7, 2011

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