From Food Production to Food Security:challenges & opportunities

Prof. dr ir Rudy Rabbinge

Emeritus University Professor Sustainable Development & Food security

CTA/WUR Inception Workshop: increasing food supply & reducing hunger, Sept. 18th, 2012

Content

Megatrends in agriculture

Global food security

Why is Africa lagging behind (IAC study)

A way forward

Megatrends in agriculture

Megatrends

foodhealth

chainapproach

from craft to industry

productivity

rise

multipleobjectives

bio-basedeconomy

…Global Food Security …

Global grain productivity (1950 – 2010)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100

200

300

400

year

Index v

alu

e

production

ton/ha

area

Source: FAOstat

Global grain acreage (1950 – 2010)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100

200

300

400

year

Index v

alu

e

Source: FAOstat

population

per capitaarea

area

Global grain production (1950 – 2010)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100

200

300

400

year

Index v

alu

e

Source: FAOstat

production

population

per capitaproduction

Food availability per capita (1960 – 2000)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202050

75

100

125

150

year

Index v

alu

e

Asia

S. America

SS Africa

Source: FAOstat

Global diets

Series1

0 1000 2000 3000 40002000

need

1 billion people

underweight

1 billion people

overweight

kcal per person.day

Global diets

Africa

Dem. Rep. of Congo

USA

The Netherlands

China

India

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

need world

2000

kcal per person.day

Demand = Population x Diet

World population

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

2

4

6

8

10

worlddeveloping worlddeveloped world

(x billion people)

Global population

2010 2050

1.2 1.3

2.6

5.3

3.1

2.6

Developed Emerg. Urban Emerg. Rural

(billions)

Source: VFRC

Food demand

Developed

Emerg. Urban

Emerg. Rural

Total

6%

163%

9%

70%

% increase 2050 vs 2010

Source: IFDC

Discontinuities wheat yields (NL)

1900 1925 1950 1975 20000

2

4

6

8

10

Gre

en

re

volu

tion

ton grain ha-1

15 kg ha-1 y-1

150 kg ha-1 y-1

Discontinuities wheat yields (UK & USA)

Gre

en

re

volu

tion

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

1

2

3

4

5

6

UKUSA

4 kg ha-1 y-1

78 kg ha-1 y-1

3 kg ha-1 y-1

50 kg ha-1 y-1

ton grain ha-1

Discontinuities paddy yield (Indonesia)

Gre

en

re

volu

tion

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19900

1

2

3

4

5

2,5 kg ha-1 y-1 130 kg ha-1 y-1

ton paddy ha-1

Green revolutions

Production ecological principles towards potential production

●integrated soil and water management

●control of pests, diseases and weeds

Plant breeding short straw varieties (harvest index increased) higher proportion harvestable product

Presence of functioning institutions

Political will

Functioning markets

Needs for new green revolutions

Demographic reasons (population growth)*

Changes in diet (more animal proteins)

Shortage of good agricultural land

Safeguard biodiversity

Environmental reasons (degradation/pollution)

Bio-based economy*

Climate change

Production-ecological principles & practice

Defining factors•CO2•radiation•temperature•crop

genetics

potentialproduction

Limiting factors•water•nutrients

(N,P,K)

attainableproduction

Reducing factors•weeds•pests•diseases•pollutants

actualproduction

Post-harvest losses

•microbial•insects•rodents•waste

availableproduction

post-harvest- technology• storage• packing

yie

ld g

ap

yieldincreasin

gmeasures

yie

ld level

yieldprotectingmeasures

P R O D U C T I O N S I T U A T I O N

Two strategies

actualyield

increasepotential

yield

decreaseyield gap

potentialyield

potentialyield

actualyield

yie

ld g

apgap

…Why is Africa lagging behind ?...

Africa: Maize yield/ha stagnates

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

2

4

6

8

10

Year

Actual maize yield (t ha-1)

L. America & Car.

S. AsiaE. & S-E.Asia

Sub-S. Africa

N. America

EU15

Why is Africa lagging behind?

Study by Inter Academy Council

“ Realizing the promise and potential of African agriculture”

“I request the IAC a report providing a technological strategic plan to provide substantial increase in agricultural productivity in Africa”

Kofi Annan, March 2002

Study results (1) Problems of Africa

Weathered soils

Erratic rainfall

Endemic plant and animal diseases

Poor resource base,

Vulnerable environment

Absence of dominating food crops

Multitude of farming systems

Need for many different technologies

Nutrient depletionno datalowmoderatehighvery high

Study results (2) Problems of Africa

Dominant role for women – limited access to resources

Land and Labor productivity low

How to become competitive?

Lack of investment in agricultural research

Lack of knowledge infrastructure

Lack of functioning academic institutions

Brain drain

Need for investment in research and education

GDP & Investments in agriculture

Agric. based Transforming Urbanized0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Public agric. spending/agric. GDP

1980 2000

%

Agric. based Transforming Urbanized0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Agricultural GDP/GDP

1980 2000

%

Source: IAC report

Public spending on agriculture lowest in agriculture based countrieswhile their share of agriculture in GDP is highest

Study results (3) Problems of Africa

Not functioning local and regional markets

Land entitlement inappropriate

No stimulating political and economic environment

Inadequate capacity to impact global policy formulation

Lack of good governance

Need for renewal of institutional arrangements

…A way forward …

IAC report: Strategic Recommendations

Technology options that can make a difference (11)

Building impact-oriented research, knowledge and development institutions (5)

Creating and retaining a new generation of agricultural scientists (5)

Markets and policies to make the poor prosperous and food secure (5)

Increase investments in agriculture and infrastructure

IAC report: Priorities on 4 farming systems

Irrig

ated

Mai

ze m

ixed

Tree

cro

p ba

sed

Comm

ercial

Spar

se/a

rid

Fore

st b

ased

Cerea

l/roo

t cro

p ba

sed

Root c

rop

base

d

Highl

and

pere

nnia

l

Agro

/pas

tora

l0

40

80

120

160

Agricultural Value Added (Worldbank) Underweight Children (CIESIN)

Irrig

ated

Maize

mixed

Tree

cro

p ba

sed

Cerea

l/roo

t cro

p ba

sed

100

Priority Farming Systems

Irrigated system

Maize mixed system

Tree crop based system

Cereal root crop mixed system

Hunger Hotspot (CIESIN)

Potential Water & Nutr. limited

Reduced0

2

4

6

8

10

12

IAC report: A Production Ecological Approach

Potential Water & Nutr. limited

Reduced Experimen-tal field

Best farmer Average farmer

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

rela

tive y

ield

limit

ing f

act

ors

reduci

ng

fact

ors unidentified factors

YG

-1

Yield

Gap p

ote

nti

al

YG-2

Yields according to production ecological principles

Yields under actual field conditions

IAC report: Invest in institutions

Design and invest in national agricultural science systems that involve farmers in education, research and extension.

Encourage institutions to articulate science and technology strategies and policies

Increase agricultural research investment on average to at least 1.5 percent of agricultural gdp in African nations in 2015

Cultivate African centres of agricultural research excellence.

Strengthen CGIAR

IAC report: Create new scientists

Broaden and deepen political support for agricultural science.

Mobilize increased and sustainable funding for higher education in science and technology, minimizing dependence on donor support.

Focus on current and future generations of agricultural scientists.

Reform university curricula

Strengthen science education at primary and secondary school levels.

IAC report: Interventions related to marketing

Increase investments in rural infrastructure

Strengthen capacity to expand market opportunities

Reduce barriers to increased African trade with OECD countries

Improve data generation and analysis related to agriculture, food, and nutrition security and vulnerability

Institute effective intellectual property rights regimes to encourage the private sector and facilitate public-private partnerships.

Impact of IAC-report: Alignment in studies

World Development Report 2008

International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)

MDG: Halving the Hunger: it can be done

Multi-country agricultural productivity programme for Africa (MAPP)

OECD Promoting Pro-Poor Growth: Agriculture (POVNET)

FAO The State of Food and Agriculture (2005): Agricultural Trade and Poverty

A New Green Revolution

AGRA programs develop practical solutions to

significantly boost farm productivity and incomes for

the poor while safeguarding the environment.

Implementation IAC report

Technology options that make a difference PASS program AGRA Soil health program AGRA and other programs Integrated programs, leapfrogging to new

technologies (production ecology) Improved ecological literacy, no ecological

dogmatism

Building impact oriented research, knowledge and development institutions

• Strengthening FARA and national programs

• Many private-public institutions

• Global Challenge program Sub Sahara Africa

Implementation IAC report

Implementation IAC report

Markets to make the poor prosperous and food

● SecureCommitment African Union

● Strengthening regional and local markets

● Markets oriented programs AGRA

Progress in Ethiopia - investments

1980s1990s

2000s2009

-

20

40

60

80

100

Trends in agri. investment capital (billion Birr)

Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012

Progress in Ethiopia - returns

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Trends in agricultural export value (x1000 USD)

Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012

Undernourishment (% of total population)

1990-19921995-19972000-20022006-2008

> 35%

30%

20%

10%

< 5%

Source: FAO

Follow-up activities

Consolidation and expansion AGRA

IFDC programs on integrated soil fertility management including market development for input provision and sale of produce

CAADP political commitment of African governments: African-led and African-owned initiative focus on● soil fertility ● marketing ● agricultural research ● food supply and hunger

AAA stimulation of entrepreneurship

Strenghtening food security programs in various countries: USA, DFID, The Netherlands