Food  beyond  the  farm  gate:  environmental  change,  adapta7on  

and  mi7ga7on  

Sonja  Vermeulen  CGIAR  Research  Program  on  Climate  Change,    

Agriculture  and  Food  Security  

IARU  Congress,  24  October  2014  

The  global  food  system  

©  2009  shiHn.com  

The  food  supply  chain:  a  simple  view  processing transport refrigeration packaging

inputs

retail & catering home storage cooking waste disposal

on-farm production

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ACTIONS:  pracOces,  technologies,      insOtuOons,  market  incenOves  

Post-­‐farmgate  accounts  for    a  Ony  share  of  biomass  

Bajzelj  et  al.,  Nature  Climate  Change  2014  

Post-­‐farmgate  accounts  for    the  major  share  of  value  

hTp://www.fla.net.au  

1.  Post-­‐farmgate  ac7ons  

Which  post-­‐farmgate  acOons  maTer  most?  

KeaOng  et  al.,  Global  Food  Security  2014  

Refrigera7on  Supply  chain  disrup7on  Interna7onal  trade      

20%  (diets  and  waste)  

46%  

34%  

Food  safety,  refrigeraOon  and  human  health  

energy  367  t  CO2eq  

waste  578  t  CO2eq  

 

Should  domesOc  fridges    be  colder  or  warmer?    

Brown  et  al.,  2014  Int  Journal  of  RefrigeraOon  

Extreme  weather  events  and    supply  chain  disrupOons  

Survey  of  559  companies  in  62  countries,  Zurich  Financial  Services  Group  2011  

Ø Most  highly  cited  cause  of  supply  chain  disrupOon  was  extreme  weather  events  -­‐  51%  of  respondents  

Ø A  third  said  disrupOon  caused  a  loss  in  revenue  and  17%  said  the  biggest  incident  cost  over  1  million  euros  

Ø Only  8%  thought  their  supply  chain  had  strategies  to  deal  with  disrupOons  

Ø Also  weather-­‐related  peaks  in  consumer  demand  Ø Low  inventory  /  rapid  response  strategies  (“just-­‐in  Ome”)  versus  high  inventory  cost-­‐saving  strategies  

InternaOonal  trade  A  valuable  adaptaOon  measure?  

Liu  et  al.,  Global  Environmental  Change  2014  

But  more  trade,  more  emissions?    Schm

itz  et  a

l.,  Global  Enviro

nmen

tal  Change  2012   deforesta7on  

Problems  and  soluOons    are  highly  specific  

home-­‐cooked  meal  versus  

ready  meal  

Schmidt  Rivera  et  al  2014,  Journal  of  Cleaner  Prodn.  

2.  Moderniza7on  of  supply  chains  

Developing  country  food  supply  chains  seen  as:  

Ø  Geographically  short  Ø  Many  “middlemen”  –  

long  in  terms  of  intermediaries  

Ø  Highly  fragmented  –  mainly  small  players  

Ø  Few  technological  advances  

Ø  Tied  credit  

Reardon  et  al.  2012.  The  Quiet  RevoluOon  in  Staple  Food  Value  Chains.  ADB  and  IFPRI  

The  modern  reality?    Example  of  staple    markets  in  China  &    India  –  but  other    countries  close  behind  

Peri-­‐urbanisa7on  

Photo:  Mint  

Cold  storage  

Photo:  CFP  Retail  revolu7on  

Photo:  Reuters  

Fewer  market  players  LiOle  7ed  credit  A  “tresformed  middle”  

3.  Increasing  aOen7on    to  supply  chain  issues  

Public  sector  investments:  e.g.  IFAD  

Private  sector  sustainability:    from  operaOons  to  whole  supply  chains  

•  “A  new  green  wave”  (The  Economist,  August  2014)  •  “How  strange  bedfellows  are  transforming  a  trillion-­‐dollar  Industry”  (CLUA,  September  2014)  

Research  programs:  with  honourable  excepOons,  agriculture  dominates  publicly  funded  research  

0  200  400  600  800  1000  1200  1400  1600  

crop  yield   access  to  food  

Ingram,  Food  Security  2011    

ASTI,  2012  

Concluding  conundrum:  why  do  post-­‐farmgate  acOviOes,  strategies  and  drivers  remain  so  

under-­‐researched?    

•  Difficult  to  study?  – Geographic  dispersion  and  many  food  chain  actors  – Corporate  privacy  –  Inter-­‐disciplinarity  

•  Power  of  “producOonist”  agendas?  – Food-­‐insecure  countries  have  agricultural  economies  – Knee-­‐jerk  simplicity  of  “need  more  food”  

•  Complex  relaOonships  between  environmental  change  and  food  system  outcomes  (e.g.  nutriOon)  

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