Examining The Housing Market in Metro-Atlanta

October 2014

Atlanta Regional Commission

For more information, contact:

mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

Home Price Index (Case-Shiller): Comparison to Pre-Recession Peak

Source: Standard & Poor’s Case Shiller Index, June 2014

-42.4% -35.4% -33.6% -32.3% -23.3% -23.0% -18.8% -18.8% -18.5% -17.4% -16.6% -16.1% -13.6%

-13.2% -11.6% -10.6%

-9.4% -5.8% -3.4%

10.1% 10.8%

-48.0% -38.0% -28.0% -18.0% -8.0% 2.0% 12.0%

NV-Las VegasAZ-Phoenix

FL-MiamiFL-Tampa

MI-DetroitIL-Chicago

NY-New YorkCA-San Diego

CA-Los AngelesMN-Minneapolis

Composite-20DC-Washington

OH-ClevelandGA-AtlantaWA-Seattle

CA-San FranciscoOR-Portland

NC-CharlotteMA-BostonCO-Denver

TX-Dallas

The graph represents the percent difference in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for each city between the pre-Recession peak and current figures. Despite impressive recent gains, metro Atlanta’s average home price is still some 13 percent less today when compared to its pre-recession peak (July 2007). Still, home prices in some western boomtowns and coastal cities are still struggling, although home prices in Denver and Dallas have recovered fully from the Great Recession and now trading at all time highs.

Home Price Index: Year-Over-Year Percentage Point Change – Metro Atlanta & the Average Large Metro

Comparing year-over-year percent change in home prices shows that metro Atlanta’s housing market has been performing better than the average large metro for about two years now. But you can see how rough things were during the Great Recession.

Source: Standard & Poor’s Case Shiller Index, June 2014

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Average Price, 10 LargeMetros

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Permitted Units, 2000-2014

Source: SOCDS (Dept. of Housing and Urban Development), 20-county area

New building permit activity in the Atlanta region is still weak, but it is rebounding. There were 3,200 residential units permitted in July of this year. But this pales in comparison to pre-recession levels – In July 2004, for example, the region permitted more than 9,700 units. This reduced supply of new housing is a factor in the escalation of home prices region-wide.

Number of Units Permitted 2011-2014 (YTD, Through July)

Most jurisdictions are ahead of their 2013 permitting pace, as 2014 has seen a marked improvement in building activity. The City of Atlanta has permitted the most number of units over the past two years. But, the vast majority of these units are multi-family, which are less likely to be actually built than are single-family permits. So, just because a permit was issued doesn't necessarily mean that a unit was built.

Source: SOCDS (Dept. of Housing and Urban Development)

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Single-Family Permits Issued, 2014 (through July)

Source: HB Weekly, ARC Processing

This map looks at where the single-family permits have been issued in 2014, through July. This jibes with the previous slide that showed a lot of permit activity within the City of Atlanta, as well as in Fulton, Forsyth, Gwinnett, Cobb and Cherokee Counties. In general, there is more building permit activity in the northern parts of the region than in the southern parts. Note: This only shows those permits that were able to be geocoded. Roughly 25 percent of the permits issued this year could not be geocoded, which is a challenge common to geo-locating new units. Thus, this analysis will under-represent those areas where brand new construction is occurring that might necessitate construction of new roads.

County Average Home Prices Comparison 2005-2007, 2012-2014 (36 Month Average)

Source: Zillow

Jurisdiction Avg, 05-07 (through July) Avg, 12-14 (through July) Change (Nominal Dollars) % Change Barrow $ 143,316 $ 109,027 $ (34,289) -23.9% Bartow $ 140,158 $ 111,246 $ (28,912) -20.6% Carroll $ 132,626 $ 101,839 $ (30,787) -23.2% Cherokee $ 196,205 $ 184,567 $ (11,638) -5.9% Clayton $ 130,458 $ 52,820 $ (77,638) -59.5% Cobb $ 204,384 $ 196,577 $ (7,807) -3.8% Coweta $ 178,887 $ 168,407 $ (10,480) -5.9% Dekalb $ 176,206 $ 208,502 $ 32,296 18.3% Douglas $ 175,277 $ 117,908 $ (57,368) -32.7% Fayette $ 247,178 $ 210,360 $ (36,818) -14.9% Forsyth $ 260,260 $ 256,730 $ (3,530) -1.4% Fulton $ 215,973 $ 245,914 $ 29,941 13.9% Gwinnett $ 190,884 $ 155,323 $ (35,561) -18.6% Hall $ 171,838 $ 144,315 $ (27,522) -16.0% Henry $ 183,781 $ 133,669 $ (50,111) -27.3% Newton $ 158,571 $ 98,478 $ (60,093) -37.9% Paulding $ 159,335 $ 125,009 $ (34,326) -21.5% Rockdale $ 178,817 $ 110,278 $ (68,539) -38.3% Spalding $ 131,523 $ 83,250 $ (48,273) -36.7% Walton $ 167,204 $ 131,024 $ (36,180) -21.6% City of Atlanta $ 210,490 $ 227,566 $ 17,076 8.1%

This table shows that home prices in most jurisdictions are still well below the pre-recession averages. The table compares the 36 month average of monthly prices from July 2005 to July 2007 to the 36 month average of monthly prices from July 2012 to July 2014. The only jurisdictions that have experienced home price increases between the two periods are Fulton County and the City of Atlanta (which is reflected in Fulton County’s figures.) But things have improved lately…

Avg, 2013

(through July) Avg, 2014

(through July) Change

(Nominal Dollars) % Change

Barrow $ 102,056 $ 113,819 $ 11,764 11.5%

Bartow $ 120,456 $ 115,274 $ (5,183) -4.3%

Carroll $ 97,381 $ 113,255 $ 15,874 16.3%

Cherokee $ 176,376 $ 188,298 $ 11,921 6.8%

Clayton $ 49,311 $ 62,458 $ 13,148 26.7%

Cobb $ 186,621 $ 212,318 $ 25,696 13.8%

Coweta $ 162,789 $ 185,946 $ 23,157 14.2%

Dekalb $ 199,666 $ 223,003 $ 23,336 11.7%

Douglas $ 107,858 $ 123,334 $ 15,475 14.3%

Fayette $ 211,404 $ 215,421 $ 4,018 1.9%

Forsyth $ 256,821 $ 265,021 $ 8,200 3.2%

Fulton $ 241,175 $ 249,082 $ 7,907 3.3%

Gwinnett $ 151,069 $ 166,268 $ 15,199 10.1%

Hall $ 138,981 $ 152,779 $ 13,797 9.9%

Henry $ 130,850 $ 137,224 $ 6,374 4.9%

Newton $ 94,737 $ 109,758 $ 15,021 15.9%

Paulding $ 126,030 $ 133,462 $ 7,432 5.9%

Rockdale $ 99,679 $ 114,686 $ 15,007 15.1%

Spalding $ 85,145 $ 81,993 $ (3,152) -3.7%

Walton $ 120,693 $ 133,990 $ 13,297 11.0%

City of Atlanta $ 224,264 $ 231,812 $ 7,548 3.4%

County Average Home Prices Comparison 2013-2014 (Monthly Average, through July)

…Most jurisdictions’ home prices are higher this year when compared to 2013. The only exceptions to this – Bartow and Spalding Counties – are only slightly lower this year when compared to last year.

Source: Zillow

Top Zip Codes: 36 Month Home Price Average, July 2012- July 2014

Source: Zillow

ZIP Code Average Home Price,

2012-2014

30327 $ 691,467

30306 $ 459,331

30342 $ 401,971

30305 $ 382,318

30307 $ 364,287

30319 $ 356,302

30005 $ 340,178

30338 $ 334,763

30097 $ 319,268

30068 $ 313,067

This map shows the Zip Codes with the highest 36-month home price average, (July 2012 – July 2014). As the map shows, all of the Zip Codes are north of I-20, with several clustered in and around northern Atlanta.

Zip Code Home Prices: 36 Month Average Median Sales Price, July 2012 – July 2014

Source: Zillow

Expressed in Quantiles. Areas that are blank did not have enough data to map.

This map shows the average sales price by Zip Code over a 36-month period beginning in July 2012 and ending in July 2014. Zip Codes that did not have at least 10 months of data were excluded. As can be seen, the Zip Codes with the highest average home prices are mostly located in the northern parts of the region in Fulton and Forsyth Counties.

Zip Code Home Prices: Change between 2005-2007 & 2012-2014

Source: Zillow

Custom Breaks were used. Areas that are blank did not have enough data to map.

This map shows the change in average price, by Zip Code between two 36-month periods – the first in the height of the housing market between 2005 and 2007, and the second in the most recent 36-month period. Zip Codes that did not have at least 10 months of data were excluded. While home prices for the region as a whole have not recovered to pre-recession peak prices, there were some areas of the region that have fully recovered. Again, these areas are located in the northern parts of the region.