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Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and BeyondE1: Scenario PlanningBrian KellyIndependent researcher/consultant at
UK Web Focus Ltd.Tony HirstSenior lecturer at The Open UniversityContact DetailsBrian Kelly Tony HirstEmail: [email protected] Email: [email protected]: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemediaBlog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/Slides and further information available at
http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/
UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut
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E: Scenario Planning
Scenario PlanningScenario planning is:• A strategic planning method that some
organisations use to make flexible long-term plans.
• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
Processes:• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable
framework• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios• Step 5 - write the scenarios• Step 6 - identify issues arising
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
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E: Scenario Planning
Radical ScenariosTwo day planning meeting for Intute (formerly RDN (Resource Discovery Network) in 2007 External facilitator set group exercise:
“The Martians have landed and taken away Intute’s servers. You decide to launch a rescue mission. What aspects of your service are your top priority?”
Suggestions:• The catalogue records• The management tools• The personalisation features• They can have the technology: the most important
aspect is our community of cataloguers!
Note the Martians (in the form of money men) did arrive and removed the Intute servers, offices and staff!)
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E: Scenario Planning
Examples of ScenariosContext: effect of changes in Europe to library sector
Possible Scenarios
UK leaves EU
Scottish independence
Greater power for European Court
Withdrawal from European Court
-ve: Move towards right; less public funding; more links with US+ve: Rediscovery of British culture
Differential charging for students
• Greater emphasis on privacy • Difficulties for US IT
companies• Development of EU
alternatives• Data hosting in EU countries
• Weaker human rights, privacy & data protection legislation
• Move towards US-model
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E: Scenario Planning
Need for ScenariosContext from NMC Horizon report – two difficult challenges:
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E: Scenario Planning
Scenario DesignIn small groups:• Choose a context:
Competition from alternative sources of discovery
Significantly changed roles for librarians Your own choice
• Provide a set of bullet points: Highlighting possible scenarios (Possible implications of scenarios) (Ways of spotting signals of scenarios
becoming true)
Gro
up E
xerc
ise
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E: Scenario Planning
Scenarios From ILI 2013 Workshop
• Possible scenarios
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a librarianThe niche librarian
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E: Scenario Planning
Scenario 1: Commercialisation
By 2016:• Libraries had responded by financial pressures
by making significant use of commercial services • Companies are now looking to respond to
pressure from shareholders to increase profits
Scenario 2: DevolutionBy 2016:• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due
to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …• There was a move towards small-scale
services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations
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E: Scenario Planning
Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian
By 2016:• The majority are now connected using social networks
and are comfortable in using the services• Skills which previously librarians possessed
(cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many
• The role of the dedicated generalist librarian is questioned
Scenario 4: The Niche LibrarianBy 2016:• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library
schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts
• The professional body asked its few remaining members for thoughts on the future of the profession
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E: Scenario Planning
Conclusions
• People typically don’t envisage the demise of their organisation or key services
• But organisations and services do fold (Intute, UKOLN, Netskills, AHDS, …)
• Scenario planning can provide a non-threatening ways of exploring implications
