1. Does intelligent life existelsewhere in the universe?The Drake Equation

2. Does life existelsewherein the universe? Photo courtesy of NASA 3. Images courtesy of R. Femmer And might there be otheradvanced civilizations out there? 4. Images courtesy of R. Femmer What are the chances oftechnologically-advancedcivilizations elsewhere in the universe?And how many suchcivilizations, if any,might there be? 5. We dont know yetImages courtesy of R. Femmer 6. But we can conduct a preliminary analysis using The Drake Equation Photo courtesy of NASA 7. The math that we will use is known as The Drake Equation*N= ( R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) 8. N = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) 9. The equation was originally developed byN = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) Dr. Frank DrakeWhen he was professor of physics and astrophysics at the University of California, Santa Cruz 10. What possibilities can its mathematics suggest? 11. Drakes EquationN = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)We would like to estimate N thepotential numbers of technologicallyadvanced civilizationselsewhere in the universe Photo courtesy of NASA 12. Drakes EquationN = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)We would like to estimate N thepotential numbers of technologicallyadvanced civilizationselsewhere in the universePhoto courtesy of NASAThe number will vary, of course, withdifferent starting assumptions 13. Drakes EquationN = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)We would like to estimate N thepotential numbers of technologicallyadvanced civilizationselsewhere in the universePhoto courtesy of NASA Drakes equation allows us to test alternateassumptions in a methodical and analytic way 14. The good news is that the math itself will be done by this presentation 15. Drakes Equation N = * (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)We start with an estimate of the number of starsPhoto courtesy of NASA 16. Drakes EquationN = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)We start with an estimate of the number of stars Footnote: After completing thisintroductory presentation , wecould use Drakes equation to test other estimatesPhoto courtesy of NASAsuch as the fraction of stars with suitable characteristics(not all stars are sun-like, for example) 17. Drakes Equation N= *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) Fractionof stars that have Photo courtesy of NASAplanets 18. We can employ different estimates here to test the effects if planets turn out to be extremelycommon - or if they are comparatively rare Drakes Equation N= *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) Fractionof stars that have Photo courtesy of NASAplanets 19. Drakes Equation N = * (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)What fraction of planets areHABITABLE (earth-like, for example)Photo courtesy of NASA 20. Drakes EquationN= * (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)What fraction of planets areHABITABLE (earth-like, for example)Not all planets , for example, arelikely to be suitable for life We want only earth-like planets orPhoto courtesy of NASAothers whose conditions allow life to exist 21. Drakes EquationN = *(R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) What portion of habitable planetsare actually inhabitedby LIFE-FORMS of any sort? Yeast cellsArtwork courtesy of R. FemmerAnything like these? Marine plankton 22. Drakes Equation N = * (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) What portion of INHABITED planetsinclude intelligent life?Photo courtesy John Mosesso, life.nbii.gov 23. Drakes Equation N = * (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) What portion of INHABITED planetsinclude intelligent life? Tool-making? Mathematical?Photo courtesy John Mosesso, life.nbii.gov Technological?On earth, there aremultiple degrees ofintelligence Which organisms wouldsatisfy the definition we would use? Chimps? Dolphins? Only humans? 24. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)What fraction of planets with intelligent beings will also haveCIVILIZATIONS?Photo courtesy NASA 25. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)What fraction of planets with intelligent beings will also haveCIVILIZATIONS?Photo courtesy NASA And must they be technologically-advanced civilizations or not? 26. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) We will be savingthis factor for laterPhoto courtesy NASA 27. Part TwoLets insert some numerical estimates and see what results we obtain 28. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)Early analyses using Drakes equation often employed estimates of the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy Photo courtesy of NASA 29. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)Early analyses using Drakes equation often employed estimates of the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy For this presentation, however, assumethat an approximate number of23 stars in the entire universe is something like 1 x 10 Photo courtesy of NASAThis would mean that the value of R* would be100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000total stars 30. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) 23If the number of stars present in the universe is 1 x 10What if PLANETS are RARE and only 1/10th of 1% have planets? 31. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)23If the number of stars present in the universe is 1 x 10What if PLANETS are RARE and only 1/10th of 1% have planets?31 out of 1 x 10 1 out of 1,000 32. Do the calculation231. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 0001000 33. Do the calculation231. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 0001000 100 000 000 000 000 000 000 34. Do the calculation231. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 0001000 100 000 000 000 000 000 000 1 x 10 23 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 1020 35. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)So if there are approximately 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets What if EARTH-LIKE planets are rareand only 1/10th of 1% of planets are HABITABLE?Photo courtesy of NASA 36. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)So if there are approximately 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets What if EARTH-LIKE planets are rareand only 1/10th of 1% of planets are HABITABLE?31 out of 1 x 10Photo courtesy of NASA1 out of 1,000 37. Do the calculation201. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 1000 38. Do the calculation201. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 1000100 000 000 000 000 000 39. Do the calculation201. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 1000100 000 000 000 000 0001 x 1020 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 1017 40. Do the calculation201. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 000 1000 100 000 000 000 000 0001 x 10 20 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 1017 So this would suggest approximately100,000,000,000,000,000 planets with conditions suitable for life 41. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)Even if, however, there were approximately100 000 000 000 000 000 habitable earth-like planets What if development of LIFE on habitable planets is also RAREand only 1/10th of 1% of habitable planets are hosts to life ? 42. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)Even if, however, there were approximately100 000 000 000 000 000 habitable earth-like planets What if development of LIFE on habitable planets is also RAREand only 1/10th of 1% of habitable planets are hosts to life ? 1 out of 1000 43. Do the calculation171. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 1000 44. Do the calculation171. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 1000100 000 000 000 000 45. Do the calculation171. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 1000100 000 000 000 000 1 x 1017 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 1014 46. Do the calculation171. x 10100 000 000 000 000 000 1000100 000 000 000 000 1 x 1017 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 1014 So this would suggest approximately 100,000,000,000,000planets with some sort of life 47. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) So if there are approximately100 000 000 000 000planets with life-forms of some sort, What if INTELLIGENT life is a rare occurrence andonly 1/10th of 1% of planets develop intelligent beings? 48. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) So if there are approximately100 000 000 000 000planets with life-forms of some sort, What if INTELLIGENT life is a rare occurrence andonly 1/10th of 1% of planets develop intelligent beings?31 out of 1 x 101 out of 1,000 49. Do the calculation141. x 10Artwork courtesy of R. Femmer 100 000 000 000 000 1000 50. Do the calculation141. x 10 100 000 000 000 000 1000 100 000 000 0001 x 1014 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 1011 If correct, this would mean approximately 100 000 000 000planets with intelligent life 51. Photo courtesy of NASAADVANCED CIVILIZATIONS 52. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) So even if there might exist approximately100 000 000 000 planets that are home to some form of intelligent life,What if ADVANCED CIVILIZATIONS rarely develop and only 1/10th of 1% of planets develop advanced civilizationsPhoto courtesy of NASA 53. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) So even if there might exist approximately100 000 000 000 planets that are home to some form of intelligent life,What if ADVANCED CIVILIZATIONS rarely develop and only 1/10th of 1% of planets develop advanced civilizationsPhoto courtesy of NASA 3 1 out of 1 x 10 1 out of 1,000 54. Do the calculation 11 1. x 10 Photo courtesy of NASA100 000 000 000 1000Photo courtesy of NASA 55. Do the calculation 11 1. x 10 Photo courtesy of NASA100 000 000 000 1000 100 000 000Photo courtesy of NASA 56. Do the calculation 11 1. x 10 Photo courtesy of NASA100 000 000 000 1000 100 000 000Photo courtesy of NASA1 x 1011 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 108 57. Do the calculation 11 1. x 10Photo courtesy of NASA100 000 000 000 1000 100 000 000Photo courtesy of NASA1 x 1011 divided by 1 x 10 3 = 1 x 108 So this would suggest the possibility of 100 000 000planets with technological civilizations 58. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) This seems very impressiveThink how amazing it would be if 100,000,000 planets with civilizations actually exist 59. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)Recall, however, this factor , which wedeferred earlierCan you guess what it is? 60. Drakes Equation *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)Recall, however, this factor , which wedeferred earlierCan you guess what it is?It is. time . 61. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)This factor is . time .and it is very soberingbecause our own planet has had dozens of great civilizations, but only over the last century do we meet a definitionof technologically advanced communicative civilizationsFor example, radio telescopes 62. Drakes Equation* N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) Thus, this factorrepresents thepercentage of a planetslifetime, LImages courtesy of R. Femmerthat is marked by the presence of intelligent beings with a technologically-advanced communicative civilization 63. If civilizationsdo not begin instantly,take a long time to appear and develop, and do not last foreverand only exist FOR TINY FRACTIONSof their planets total lifetime 64. or for only a tinyportion of the totalelapsed time of theuniverse itself Photo courtesy of NASA 65. Then we must divideonce again 66. 8Suppose that somehow 1 x 10 advanced civilizations manage to develop -7 If, however, they only exist for a 1 x 10 portion of their planets lifetime ** Earth is about 4.4 billion years old Then1 x 108 =1 x 101=10 71 x 10 67. 8 1 x 10=1 x 101=10 7 1 x 10Thus, given the estimatessuppositions, andassumptions that we have used in this sample analysisJust ten planets withtechnologically advanced civilizations might exist at a particular moment in time 68. Employing the estimatesand mathematics used in our example, there may be only TEN other advancedcivilizations out there somewhere at this moment in time 69. or there could be NONE at all 70. we may be it 71. It makes you think - doesnt it ? 72. What responsibility does this place upon our shoulders? 73. Photo courtesy of NASA 74. *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L) FootnotesFor convenience, this presentation assumeda 1/10 th of 1% probability for each factorin its discussionBut the percentages that one chooses toassign to each factor can and should bemodified on the basis of humankinds ever-increasing knowledge and understandings For example, solar systems with multipleplanets may not be rare at all, but may bevery common so that the equation could berun again to reflect a much higher numberof planets 75. *N *= (R ) ( fp ) (ne) ( fl ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)FootnotesOn the other hand, many stars arevery different than our sun and maybe unsuitable for sustaining life aswe know itIn that case, the value that that weassign to factor R* shouldprobably be adjustedWe could adjust R* downward, forexample, by adding a factor fs tothe equation to incorporate afraction of suitable stars into ourestimates 76. FootnotesMany scholars and authors have utilizedand discussed Drakes equationA web search of books and other resourceswill reward viewers of this presentationwith many additional insights concerning itsimplications and applicationsParticular credit should go to Frank Drake,however, and his fellow astronomer CarlSagan 77. Made available courtesy of The Wecskaop Project What Every Citizen Should Know About Our PlanetImages courtesy of R. Femmer 78. Images courtesy of R. Femmer 79. Images courtesy of R. Femmer 80. Images courtesy of R. Femmer