Climate Change and IWMI:

Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol - CDM AR and H20

Robert ZomerDeborah Bossio

Antonio TrabuccoOliver Van Straaten

Aspects of Climate Change

• Local– Wetting or drying– Increased uncertainty in rainfall– Livelihoods and vulnerability– Increased extreme events

• Global– Direct climate change impacts on production, farming

systems, food security water supply, ecosystems…– International treaties affect land use and indirectly affect

water use• New partnerships

– Global change research community

Global Issue

• Various International Treaty Conventions and Agreements are currently in effect:– Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC), Biodiversity Convention,

Desertification, etc..

• “Hidden” Water Dimension (water use and supply) of Agreements not necessarily taken into account, and/or treated as ancillary issue.

Kyoto Protocol CDM-AR

• Kyoto Protocol has been ratified in 2005– Kyoto calls for mandatory reductions of emissions to 1992

levels for Annex I Parties.

– The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows for countries to trade carbon credits for investing in carbon reducing projects in Non-Annex I countries.

– One percent of all the required reductions is allowed to be satisfied by “carbon sink” projects, (CDM-AR)

• afforestation and reforestation, tree plantations, agroforestry(2008-2012)

– This potentially represents billions of dollars flowing into developing countries and development.

Global Analysis of CDM-AR impacts on water related issues

• Questions:– Where is the land suitable for these CDM-AR projects?

• What is there now (current landuse)

• What kind of land is it (elevation, slope, NPP, degradation)

• Who is there now (population density)

– How much land is actually required to meet the CDM-AR cap (1% of total CO2 reductions)?

– If those sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on water cycles

• Globally, regionally, locally

How much land is suitable and where is it?

How much land is suitable and where is it?

• Suitable land >700 Mha• 46% is in South America• 27% is in SS Africa

• More than 75% of suitable lands in Asia are classified as agricultural land use.

Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Existing Landuse Type

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

SouthAmerica

SubsaharaAfrica

South Asia SouthEastAsia

East Asia

Region

Barren or Sparsely VegetatedSavannaMixed Shrubland/GrasslandCropland

How many people live on that land?

Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Population Density

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

1 - 5

6 - 1

011

- 25

26 -

5051

- 10

010

1 - 2

0020

1 - 3

00 3

01 -

400

401

- 500

501

- 750

751

- 100

0> 1

000

Population Density

East AsiaSouth-east AsiaSouth AsiaSub-Sahara AfricaSouth America

Almost all of the biophysically suitable land with low population density is found in Africa and South America

What is the potential of CDM AR projects to mitigate land degradation, globally?

• Only 2 - 3 % of eligible lands are required to meet the current CDM sink cap

– 1.4 Million Sq Km

• Globally CDM-AR is a ‘drop in the bucket’ to help address enormous scope of land degradation

Hydrological impacts of implementing CDM-AR projects

If suitable sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on water cycles

•Globally, regionally, locally

Tested for methods that could be easily applied at global scale, and as a support tool for feasibility studies associated with local reforestation.

A monthly A monthly ThornthwaiteThornthwaite--MatherMather soilsoil--water budget is calculated as:water budget is calculated as:

SWC is the soil water content

EPrec is the effective precipitation

AET is the Actual Evapotranspiration

R is the Excess Water or Runoff

PrSWC E ec AET R∆ = − −

Increase in Vapor Flows (AET) with CDM-AR

• Large areas exhibit significant increases in vapor flow

• Drier areas, • Semi-arid tropics, • Conversion from grasslands • Conversion from subsistence ag

•Significant variation amongst biomes and bioclimatic zones

Decrease in Runoff with CDM-AR

Low Impact - 20%Moderate Impact - 28%High Impact - 25%Severe Impact - 27%

Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Decrease in Runoff (%)

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100

Decrease in Runoff (%)

East AsiaSouth-East AsiaSouth AsiaSubSahara AfricaSouth America

Global Impact: MinimalLocally and Regionally: potentially significant

Four Case Studies of Local Impact: Four Case Studies of Local Impact:

• Four Case Study Sites:– Ecuador

• Coastal Tropical – Pasture to Mixed Native Agroforestry

• Sierras– Community Forestry - Pine Plantation

– Bolivia• Amazon -

– Small Farm Agroforestry

• Sierras - Tunari National Park– Ecological Restoration

– Native Species

Local Impact:Local Impact:Water Use Change with CDMWater Use Change with CDM--AR Project:AR Project:

Precipitation: 900 mmImpact: High Impact (27%)Possible Flood Mitigation

Tunari National Park: Bolivia

ChapareChapare Case Study Case Study –– Bolivian AmazonBolivian Amazon

Community Based AgroforestryCommunity Based Agroforestry

Annual Precipitation: > 3000Annual Precipitation: > 3000

Impact Minimal with 100% AdoptionImpact Minimal with 100% Adoption

Guamote Study Site - Ecuador

Precipitation: 700 mmImpact: SevereGround Water Decrease

Conclusion

• H2O Dimension of Multilateral Treaties– Needs to be explicitly articulated

• Local Impact of CDM-AR Can Be Significant– Communities, Food Security, Ecosystem

• Model results can be applied to optimize planning and mitigate impact

• Model can be used to quantify impact of trees in the landscape under range of scenarios

Thank YouThank You……