Chapter 7 PPOINT

Human PopulationsHuman Populations

ByBy

David HollandDavid HollandDa bossDa boss

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

• Every second Four children are born Every second Four children are born and two people die.and two people die.

• 2005= 6.4 Billion People Living2005= 6.4 Billion People Living

• 75 Million per year 75 Million per year

• Overpopulation Overpopulation

Human Population Human Population • Before agriculture (10,000 years ago), Before agriculture (10,000 years ago),

scientists believe that the world’s scientists believe that the world’s population was only a few million. population was only a few million.

• More food= more people (50 million by More food= more people (50 million by 5,000 b.c.)5,000 b.c.)

• Time of Christ= only 300 million people Time of Christ= only 300 million people (very slow growth)(very slow growth)

• Until the Middle ages, population held in Until the Middle ages, population held in check by disease, famines, and war. check by disease, famines, and war.

• After 1600 a.d., growth was rapid. More After 1600 a.d., growth was rapid. More sailing, agricultural innovations, and better sailing, agricultural innovations, and better hygiene.hygiene.

• We are now in an exponential or J curve We are now in an exponential or J curve pattern of growth. pattern of growth.

Human Populations Cont’dHuman Populations Cont’d

Limits to Growth- Malthus and Limits to Growth- Malthus and MarxMarx

• 1798- Rev. Thomas Malthus- 1798- Rev. Thomas Malthus- An An Essay on the Principle of PopulationEssay on the Principle of Population. . – Human populations tend to increase at Human populations tend to increase at

an exponential or compound rate while an exponential or compound rate while food production either remains stable or food production either remains stable or increases only slowly.increases only slowly.

– Thus, humans will eventually run out of Thus, humans will eventually run out of food and descend into chaos. food and descend into chaos.


• Karl Marx was a critic of MalthusKarl Marx was a critic of Malthus– Population growth is a symptom rather than a Population growth is a symptom rather than a

root cause of chaos (poverty, resource root cause of chaos (poverty, resource depletion, pollution etc)depletion, pollution etc)

– He believed the real causes of chaos are He believed the real causes of chaos are exploitation and oppressionexploitation and oppression

• Neo-Malthusians= David Pimentel a Neo-Malthusians= David Pimentel a Cornell University entomologist claims the Cornell University entomologist claims the optimum human population is 2 billion, or optimum human population is 2 billion, or the number living in 1950the number living in 1950


Benefits of more peopleBenefits of more people

• More people= larger markets, more More people= larger markets, more workers, more inventors, and efficiencies workers, more inventors, and efficiencies of scale in mass production of goods. of scale in mass production of goods. – More ideas leads more innovations and thus More ideas leads more innovations and thus

we can produce less waste and consume less.we can produce less waste and consume less.•Going GreenGoing Green

• Economist Julian Simon= People are the Economist Julian Simon= People are the “Ultimate Resource” and developing “Ultimate Resource” and developing countries have advantage.countries have advantage.

Human DemographyHuman Demography

• Demography= Vital stats about Demography= Vital stats about people: births, marriages, deaths. people: births, marriages, deaths. The statistical study of human The statistical study of human populations relating to growth rate, populations relating to growth rate, age, structure, geographic age, structure, geographic distribution and their effects on distribution and their effects on social, economic, and environmental social, economic, and environmental conditions.conditions.

How many?How many?

How many?How many?

• Largest countries in 2004(in millions)Largest countries in 2004(in millions)

• China-1,300China-1,300

• India-1,087India-1,087

• U.S.-294U.S.-294

• In 2050In 2050

• India- 1,628India- 1,628

• China- 1,437China- 1,437

• U.S.- 420U.S.- 420

How ManyHow Many

FertilityFertility

• Crude birth rate= number of births in a Crude birth rate= number of births in a year per thousand persons. (not adjusted year per thousand persons. (not adjusted for population characteristics such as the for population characteristics such as the number of women in reproductive age.number of women in reproductive age.

• Total fertility rate- number of children born Total fertility rate- number of children born to an average woman in a population to an average woman in a population during her entire reproductive life.during her entire reproductive life.– Fertility rates declined in all regions but Africa Fertility rates declined in all regions but Africa

over past 50 yearsover past 50 years• Due to birth controlDue to birth control

• Zero Population Growth= when births plus Zero Population Growth= when births plus immigration in a population just equals immigration in a population just equals deaths plus emigration.deaths plus emigration.

FertilityFertility

MortalityMortality

• Crude death rates= number of deaths per Crude death rates= number of deaths per thousand persons in any given year.thousand persons in any given year.

• Natural increase of a population= crude Natural increase of a population= crude birth rate-crude death ratebirth rate-crude death rate

• Total growth rate= includes immigration Total growth rate= includes immigration and emigration as well as births and and emigration as well as births and deaths.deaths.– Rule of 70- years to double population= 70/ % Rule of 70- years to double population= 70/ %

change in populationchange in population

Life SpanLife Span

• Life expectancy= average age that a newborn Life expectancy= average age that a newborn infant can expect to attain in any given infant can expect to attain in any given society. society. – For most of history it was between 35-40.For most of history it was between 35-40.

• Declining mortality, not increasing fertility is Declining mortality, not increasing fertility is the cause of population growth in the past 300 the cause of population growth in the past 300 years. years.

• Globally, the number of people over the age of Globally, the number of people over the age of 60 years old is expected to triple increasing 60 years old is expected to triple increasing from 600 million to nearly 2 billion.from 600 million to nearly 2 billion.– Due to new medicine, better food, better sanitation Due to new medicine, better food, better sanitation

and income (see graph)and income (see graph)

Long LifeLong Life

• Dependency ratio- the number of Dependency ratio- the number of nonworking compared to working nonworking compared to working individuals in a population.individuals in a population.– Mexico has huge amounts of working Mexico has huge amounts of working

supporting children, the U.S. has supporting children, the U.S. has declining number of workers supporting declining number of workers supporting the elderly. the elderly.

Emigration and ImmigrationEmigration and Immigration

Population Growth Opposing Population Growth Opposing factorsfactors

• Pronatalist pressures- factors that Pronatalist pressures- factors that increase a people’s desires to have increase a people’s desires to have babies. babies. – Enjoyment, source of income (jobs), help Enjoyment, source of income (jobs), help

around the home etc.around the home etc.

• Discouraging factors= higher Discouraging factors= higher education for women and personal education for women and personal freedom for women, cost, careers etc.freedom for women, cost, careers etc.

Birth DearthBirth Dearth

• Birth Rates have been falling in the Birth Rates have been falling in the U.S. and other developed countries U.S. and other developed countries which may be because of problems which may be because of problems with sperm (chapter 8)with sperm (chapter 8)

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

• 1945- Demographer Frank Notestein 1945- Demographer Frank Notestein pointed out that typical pattern of pointed out that typical pattern of falling death rates and birth rates falling death rates and birth rates due to improved living conditions due to improved living conditions usually accompanies economic usually accompanies economic development. development. – Transition from high birth and death Transition from high birth and death

rates to lower birth and death rates. rates to lower birth and death rates.

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

• This graph shows This graph shows theoretical birth, death theoretical birth, death and population growth and population growth rates in a demographic rates in a demographic transition accompanying transition accompanying economic and social economic and social development. development. – In a predevelopment society, In a predevelopment society,

the birth and death rates are the birth and death rates are high and the total population high and the total population growth rate is stable. During growth rate is stable. During development, death rates all development, death rates all first, then birth rates after first, then birth rates after two generations. two generations.

Optimism vs. PessimismOptimism vs. Pessimism

• Optimistic= improved standard of living, Optimistic= improved standard of living, increased confidence that children will be increased confidence that children will be able to survive until maturity, improved able to survive until maturity, improved social status of women, increased social status of women, increased availability and use of birth control. availability and use of birth control.

• Pessimistic= poorer countries caught in Pessimistic= poorer countries caught in demographic trap that prevents them from demographic trap that prevents them from escaping the middle stage of a transition. escaping the middle stage of a transition. Such rapid growth that many die because Such rapid growth that many die because of lack of resources. of lack of resources.

Social JusticeSocial Justice

• Social Justice =fair share of benefits Social Justice =fair share of benefits for everyone.for everyone.– The world has enough resources for The world has enough resources for

everyone, but inequitable social and everyone, but inequitable social and economic systems cause misdistribution economic systems cause misdistribution of those resourcesof those resources•Causes poverty etc. Causes poverty etc.

Family PlanningFamily Planning

• Family Planning= allows couples to Family Planning= allows couples to determining the number and spacing determining the number and spacing of their children.of their children.

• Birth control= any method used to Birth control= any method used to reduce births, including abstinence, reduce births, including abstinence, delayed marriage, contraception, etc.delayed marriage, contraception, etc.

Family PlanningFamily Planning

The Future of Human The Future of Human PopulationsPopulations

• The U.S. is isolated in our population The U.S. is isolated in our population policies. policies. – 1994- U.N. met to discuss women’s 1994- U.N. met to discuss women’s

rights and population. Goal of rights and population. Goal of universally available reproductive health universally available reproductive health services, including health planning by services, including health planning by 2015. 2015.

– George Bush refused to reaffirm George Bush refused to reaffirm involvement because it could be read as involvement because it could be read as promoting abortion…good job Georgepromoting abortion…good job George

GrowthGrowth

Case Study- A billion People Case Study- A billion People and Growingand Growing

• India- adds more people to the world’s India- adds more people to the world’s population every year than any other population every year than any other country. country. – 2005- Added more than 185 million residents 2005- Added more than 185 million residents

in the previous decade stood at 1.1 billion.in the previous decade stood at 1.1 billion.– 2050- over 1.63 billion.2050- over 1.63 billion.

• Problems= There is already poverty, lack of food, Problems= There is already poverty, lack of food, housing, education and employment.housing, education and employment.

– How do they decrease population growth? How do they decrease population growth? Birth Control vs. TimeBirth Control vs. Time• At 1994 conference, some said gov’t should be At 1994 conference, some said gov’t should be

responsible for controlling birth rateresponsible for controlling birth rate• Opponents argue that effort would waste a lot of Opponents argue that effort would waste a lot of

resources they need for other things.resources they need for other things.

– Solution=Solution=


– Solution= 2000, decided to let each state Solution= 2000, decided to let each state approach the problem. Some focus on social approach the problem. Some focus on social justice, other are more direct. justice, other are more direct. • Kerala= education, affordable health care, and family Kerala= education, affordable health care, and family

planning= social justiceplanning= social justice

• Andra Pradesh= Most dramatic fertility decline Andra Pradesh= Most dramatic fertility decline because of monetary stimulus to be sterilized after because of monetary stimulus to be sterilized after one or two children. However aimed at women, bring one or two children. However aimed at women, bring up forced sterilizations of 1970s prime minister Indira up forced sterilizations of 1970s prime minister Indira Gandhi. Feminists are protestingGandhi. Feminists are protesting

• Still some populations like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar Still some populations like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are increasing above 2.5 percent per year.are increasing above 2.5 percent per year.


Education

Chapter 7 PPOINT