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Workshop #1 of 4 at the East Asian Regional Council of Overseas Schools Leadership Conference in Bangkok in November 2013 – over 1000 principals and leaders of international schools from throughout Asia.
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EARCOS Leadership Conference 2013 Chris Jansen
Designing a change initiative: leveraging
the Cynefin framework
3
Chris Jansen
Overview
• the leading change dilemma
• conflict – danger or opportunity
• technical and adaptive challenges
• the Cynefin framework
• two key questions in adaptive change
• collective solution finding and
ownership
4
So what for leadership?
www.thinkbeyond.co.nz
“Are we in a catch-22: stuck between changes that fail and
failing to change?”
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Can I lead positive and sustainable change…?
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10 www.ideacreation.org
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Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
FILE :
DRAFTING CHECKED
DRAWN
APPROVED
FIG. No. REV. PROJECT No.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
CERA CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Land Damage Map
NTS
0
.
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Land Damage After 4 September 2010
!
Approx Scale 1:50,000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 (m)
Legend
Areas of observed
liquefaction
Port Hills area
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
FILE :
DRAFTING CHECKED
DRAWN
APPROVED
FIG. No. REV. PROJECT No.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
CERA CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Land Damage Map
Aggregated Land Damage After 22 February 2011 NTS
0
.
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
!
Approx Scale 1:50,000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 (m)
Legend
Areas of observed
liquefaction
Port Hills area
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
FILE :
DRAFTING CHECKED
DRAWN
APPROVED
FIG. No. REV. PROJECT No.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
CERA CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Aggregated Building Damage Map
Building Damage After 4 September 2010 NTS
0
.
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Building damage based on data provided by AMI, Ansvar, EQC, FMG, Housing New Zealand, IAG, Lumley,
MAS, Tower and Vero
!
Approx Scale 1:50,000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 (m)
Legend
Repairs > $100k (houses which had significant damage but could be economically repaired
Rebuilds (houses which are beyond economic repair)
Legend
Repairs > $100k (houses which had significant damage but could be economically repaired
Rebuilds (houses which are beyond economic repair)
Confirmed rebuilds (houses which were confirmed to be beyond economic repair)
Canterbury
Earthquak
e Recovery
Authority
FILE :
DRAFTING CHECKED
DRAWN
APPROVED
FIG. No. REV. PROJECT No.
APPROX. SCALE (AT A3 SIZE)
CERA CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY
Aggregated Building Damage After 22 February 2011 NTS
0
.
Notes:
Low-resolution aerial photos sourced from Google Earth (Copyright: 2009).
High-resolution aerials provided by New Zealand Aerial Mapping (February 2011)
Property boundaries provided by Christchurch City Council
Building damage based on data provided by AMI, Ansvar, EQC, FMG, Housing New Zealand, IAG, Lumley,
MAS, Tower and Vero
!
Approx Scale 1:50,000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 (m)
Aggregated Building Damage Map
Legend
Building Damage Ratio (Repair cost estimate / replacement cost)
0% - 20%
20% - 40%
40% - 60%
60% - 80%
80% - 100%
100% (rebuild because it is uneconomic to repair the building)
Legend
Building Damage Ratio (Repair cost estimate / replacement cost)
0% - 20%
20% - 40%
40% - 60%
60% - 80%
80% - 100%
100% (rebuild because it is uneconomic to repair the building)
Conflict
Opportunity Danger
…a dynamic of experimentation and innovation…
Possibility…
Technical challenges “can be solved with knowledge and procedures
already at hand”
Adaptive challenges “embedded in social complexity, require behaviour change
and are rife with unintended consequences‟
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Requires leader to identify priorities, project manage and ensure stakeholder engagement
Requires leader to do all of the above and generate and trial multiple solutions
www.ideacreation.org
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Simple, predictable cause and
effect interactions
Multiple predictable cause and
effect interactions
Multiple connected but unpredictable interactions
Multiple disconnected interactions
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Cynefin Systems Framework
Decisions are obvious
Decisions require expert knowledge
Decisions are uncertain and solutions only
apparent in retrospect
Decisions need to be made quickly to dampen energy
Dave Snowden www.ideacreation.org
Unordered Ordered
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Multiple predictable cause and effect
interactions
Multiple connected but unpredictable
interactions
Complex Complicated
Chaotic Simple
Cynefin Framework
Decisions require expert knowledge
Decisions are uncertain and solutions only
apparent in retrospect
Adaptive challenges
Technical problems
www.ideacreation.org
Sense, analyse and respond
Probe, sense and respond
Foster interaction, shared learning, and leverage collective intelligence
23 www.ideacreation.org
What solution?
How to engage?
+ Ownership, motivation and commitment
++ Better solutions and innovation
Two key questions in adaptive change
www.ideacreation.org
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/chris-jansen/25/235/919
