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U.S. Regional Job and Wage Growth Update
July 2016
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
2Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Motivation
• U.S. job growth has slowed somewhat in 2016
• Increasing chatter among state forecasters about lackluster revenue trends for both withholding and sales taxes
• Is there an actual economic slowdown or are the forecasts too high, thus creating potential budget issues due to forecast errors?
• How does growth today compare to the housing boom?
3Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
tl;dr summary
• Most metros, states and regions are adding jobs today at least as fast as during housing boom• Average wage growth lower everywhere except East North Central
and Pacific• Thus, aggregate wage growth today on par with housing boom
• Growth being driven by biggest metro areas• Most large metros growing faster today than during housing boom• Spread between big city growth and rural areas largest seen since
1990 recession and mid-80s commodity bust
• Oil patch slowdown and job losses are real• Impacts big cities like Houston and Oklahoma City in addition to
rural counties in heartland• West North Central and West South Central job growth slowing
down
• All other regions stable or accelerating job growth
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Census DivisionsJobs, Average Wages and Aggregate Wages
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New EnglandCT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
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Middle AtlanticNJ, NY, PA
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East North CentralIL, IN, MI, OH, WI
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West North CentralIA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
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South AtlanticDC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
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East South CentralAL, KY, MS, TN
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West South CentralAR, LA, OK, TX
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MountainAZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
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PacificAK, CA, HI, OR, WA
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Metro vs NonmetroJob Growth by Metro Size
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Big Cities Continue to Drive Growth
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Growth Rates Diverging
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Haven’t Seen This Spread In Quite Some Time
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Nonmetro Slowdown is Oil Patch
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Largest MetrosJob Growth
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Most big metrosgrowing fastertoday than duringhousing boom
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There is an Oil Patch Slowdown
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But Impact Seems Concentrated
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Some Acceleration Elsewhere Helping Make Up the Gap
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But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 1
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But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 2
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But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 3
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Housing Bust Metros50 Worst Housing Bubble and Bust MSAs, All Sizes
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Not Translating into Stronger Labor Force However
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Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
(503) 378-4052
