U.S. employment rate data and trends: August 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Summer slowdown hits the economy

as job growth stalls

U.S. employment situation: August 2014 September 5, 2014

August 2014 employment summary

• Total non-farm employment increased by 142,000 jobs in August, the lowest number in eight

months and breaking the string of 200,000+ monthly additions seen in 2014. This represents

a 1.8-percent year-on-year increase.

- Some of this can be accounted for a summer slowdown in employment, as well as

contractions in retail trade and educational services. Retail trade in particular is usually a

core driver of job growth, and its absence exacerbated slowing growth seen in many

sectors.

• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to 6.1 percent due to a combination of persistent labor

force participation declines (down to 62.8 percent in August) and steady employment gains.

- Total unemployment fell to 12.0 percent, matching its 10-year average. It is still elevated,

however.

- Unemployment for college and high-school grads increased by 10 basis points, however,

but both are nearing historic norms at 3.2 and 6.2 percent, respectively.

August 2014 employment summary (con’t)

• Office-using industries remained in neutral, but accounted for more than one-third of payroll

increases in August as other sectors faltered. On the other hand, health care and

construction, as well as leisure and hospitality, posted improved hiring conditions.

Construction in particular added 20,000 jobs in August, or 14.1 percent of monthly growth.

• Confidence is improving. Job openings matched March 2007’s high of 4.7 million this month,

while quits are slowly but surely rising. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 92.4

points on the back of record personal consumption expenditures, which have been fueling

GDP growth of late.

• From a geographic perspective, Texas and the Sunbelt are the definite leaders, with markets

consistently reporting 3.5 percent or greater year-on-year employment growth. While most

major markets are now in the 2.0+ percent range (with the notable exceptions of Chicago

and Philadelphia), they have yet to keep up with Austin, Dallas, Houston, Raleigh-Durham

and South Florida in percentage terms, among other high-growth areas.

Summer slowdown in August breaks 200,000+ job growth

streak earlier in 2014, but still above previous years 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

201,

000

304,

000

202,

000

267,

000

212,

000

142,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

Aug

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

4

Unemployment continues to nudge down, in August to 6.1

percent, as job gains maintain slow-but-steady pace

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


5

On the other hand, job openings are rising steadily and neared

4.7 million in August, the highest figure since March 2007


6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

-8.4

-3.0

-2.0

0.0

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.0

4.6

6.5

7.0

8.0

8.0

13.0

15.0

20.0

37.0

42.7

47.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

Retail trade

Information

Nondurable goods

Manufacturing

Transportation and warehousing

Utilities

Mining and logging

Durable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Wholesale trade

Financial activities

Other services

Government

Temporary help services

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Education and health services

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

Contractions in retail trade pushed down August’s growth

figures, although construction saw a sharp increase


7

PBS


Construction

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

73.2 percent of

monthly

growth.

-2.0

3.6

14.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

64.8

66.0

125.4

151.6

154.0

168.0

214.9

232.0

248.2

336.9

345.0

367.0

639.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Information

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Government

Other services

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts


Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Temporary help services

Construction

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance



Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS

Education and health


Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Almost 2.5 million jobs have been created over the past year as

only information posts a negligible contraction


8

Core subsectors added 73.4 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Both private and public hiring slow; revisions slightly lower

gains earlier in 2014

Private sector hiring up 4.9

million since August 2012

Public sector hiring up 11,000

workers since July 2012


9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Unemployment for white-collar and high-school grads both up

by 10bp, but still nearing cyclical lows

3.2%

6.2%


10

After months of improvement, goods-producing payroll

increases falter once again

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


11

Energy’s volatility sees gains reduced to 2.4 percent,

comparable with office-using industries

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through July 2014.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech still leading but slightly slower in line with national

trends, while energy remains up-and-down

Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

For the first time during the recovery, the 4-week moving

average for initial claims has fallen below 300,000

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence continues its upswing, jumping yet again

to 92.4 points and surpassing 2008 levels

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

Quits are slowly rising as worker sentiment about the job

market slowly grows


16

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Qui

ts (

thou

sand

s)

Sunbelt and Texas remain dominant, with Raleigh-Durham year-

on-year growth at a whopping 4.7 percent


17

Austin

3.8%

Dallas

3.9%

Houston

4.0%

Raleigh-Durham

4.7%

South Florida

3.3%

Charlotte

3.2%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting

job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however

18


Detroit

0.9%

Hampton

Roads

0.5%

New Jersey

0.8%

Washington,

DC

0.6%

Columbus

0.7%

The labor force participation rate declined by 10bp to 62.8

percent, partially contributing to falling unemployment


19

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Although high at 12.0 percent, total unemployment has

reached its 10-year average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


20

Office-using jobs are still in slower-growth mode, but

slowdowns in retail and education push up office-using share


21

Office-using payroll growth hampered by stagnancy across the

board and below levels seen earlier in the recovery

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In July 2014, it represented all 92.2 percent of new office jobs.


22

Like the overall economy, labor force participation for white-

collar workers and high school grads is anemic


23

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, although its

rate of growth is slowing somewhat

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


24

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

John Sikaitis

Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Research Analyst

[email protected]

Or, find more employment, business and real

estate research at jll.com.

>>> Click here to check it out.

mailto:[email protected]



http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research?utm_source=research&utm_medium=slideshare&utm_campaign=aug14unemployment

Economy & Finance

U.S. employment rate data and trends: August 2014