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S U G A R R U S H !S U G A R R U S H ! SUGAR AND THE CITY!
Perspectives on the Sugar Market & Brazil!
Eddie Tofpik Member of the Society of Technical Analysts. Market Technicians Association (affiliate)
New York – 14th May 2013
SUGAR AND THE CITY! 3
Last time we metIn London
In October 2012!
18.09…KEY!
18
18.09 ……..!
…so what does it look like…
Now!
So what can we see here?
…to recap!
What have we learned since Oct 2012!
• 1) 18.09 Absolute Fib ultimately failed as support – now resistance!
• 2) Long MA (currently 19.13 ) still acting as massive overhead resistance!
• 3) Key Reversals Up all ultimately failed – though supportive short-term!
• 4)…but KR’s Down rare & only 50:50!
• 5) Market is bearish but in no hurry to decline!
Take a look again!
All pretty bearish!Let’s look fresh again!
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly ChartSo now lets get closer!
The Weekly Chart – Bearish Schiff Pitchfork Looking good!
So now lets get closer!
The Daily Chart – Bearish Schiff Pitchfork STILL Looking good!
Let’s look into the future!
Key points in price & time !
Key points in price & time !
To recap!• Important price levels
– 1) 18.09 (18.04) – 50% Absolute Fib!– 2) 16.48– 3) 15.20– 4) 13.78 – 31.2% Absolute Fib!– 5) 13.00 is important (low of 2010) but to me 13.78 is key!
Important dates1)5th – 18th June best 11th June2)23rd – 30th August best 26th August3)23rd – 31st October best 31st October4)30th December – 15th January best 8th January 2014
All dates best fit at the current time!
To recap!• Important price levels
– 1) 18.09 (18.04) – 50% Absolute Fib!– 2) 16.48– 3) 15.20– 4) 13.78 – 31.2% Absolute Fib!– 5) 13.00 is important (low of 2010) but to me 13.78 is key!
Important dates1)5th – 18th June best 11th June2)23rd – 30th August best 26th August3)23rd – 31st October best 31st October4)30th December – 15th January best 8th January 2014
All dates best fit at the current time!
I pause now for questions!
U. S. Dollar
vs.
Brazilian Real
…from last time Back in October
In London
One word of caution!The chances of a False Break
are increasing!
…so what does it look like…
Now!
One word of caution!The chances of a False Break
are increasing!
100% RIGHT!
100% RIGHT!
So what happened next?
The coincidence of Fib support at 1.9450-1.9455 proved very good!
So where now?
Lots of sideways!
More of the same perhaps?
Support on the Uptrend & the 50% Fib. Resistance from the Long MA & April highs!
I pause for questions!
NYMEXNatGas
As a proxy for Fertilizer costs!
…from last time Back in October
In London!
So many bullish points last time! (11) – a bit of a mess!
NEW!The
HandymaxIndex!!
Uptrend good – Reverse H&S good (evidence that H+S work s here) – Downtrend only a 2 pointer. Expect a move up to test the 600 area.
I am mindful that time is short
so…..
Here is the final bit!
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