1. Avoiding Icebergs: Changes and Continuities in Economic Levers
NICVA Masterclass
September 16th 2011
Dr Graham Brownlow (QUMS)
graham.brownlow@qub.ac.uk

2. There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order....
Niccolo Machiavelli
3. IREP (2009)
The 2009 report followed on from previous work. It identified a range of problems with Invest NI including:
Poor productivity
Over-reliance on subsidy (against backdrop of fall)
Poor performance of Invest NI: not enough jobs created
Poor performance of Invest NI: job quality not enough in those created
Poor performance of Invest NI: 50% additionality
4. N. Ireland Here and Now (EAG, 2011)
3,000 jobs lost since 2008 (i.e. 2011 = 2005 levels).
150% increase in claimant count 2007-11.
One in five (23%) working age adults have no qualifications which is nearly twice UK average rate (12%).
Competitiveness has improved, but much more work needed.
5. The Institutional-Economic Situation 1 (Heald, 2003)
Much of what was written in 2003 (and indeed earlier) remains the case as of 2011:
Low policy capacity in 1999 not reversed? (Heald, 2003, p.75) -> CSR 2010?
Populism/spending as a shared political ideology?-> CSR 2010?
Path Dependence in Civil Service incentives after 1972 -> Emulation and/or Green Book Evaluation?
Absence of Think Tanks ->EAG?
6. The Institutional-Economic Situation2 EAG (2011) and PwC (2010b)

Independent Review of Economic Policy (IREP) (2009).

7. 58 points made (40 agreed or accepted)More reports to come

PwC observe that 15 economic reports NI 1957-2010 have been published, but implementation a problem.

8. A problem shared under both Direct Rule and Devolution -> Low policy capacity?