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Land Health Decisions
Mainstream Decision Analysis in development!• Policy makers face tough decisions on allocating scarce resources to achieve
Development Goals• Business Decision Analysis techniques can optimize choices and demonstrate
value for money
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World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi, Kenya, www.worldagroforestry.org
Decision Analysis methods……include decision-makers in analyzing the decisions they face…consider all relevant variables (incl. ‘intangibles’)…use data as well as expert knowledge…consider risks and uncertainties…project full range of plausible decision outcomes…identify key knowledge gaps for further research…are widely used in many fields, but not in development
Improve decision-making processes instead of chasing targets• The defining moment for the development success of interventions is the time of decision-making• Decision models allow comparing outcome prospects of different decision options• Models offer guidance on how to decide, how to design projects and what indicators to monitor• In contrast, quantitative targets defined without decision contexts are not directly useful for advising
on specific decisions, but encourage ‘indicator optimization’ rather than improving decisions
Strengthening capacity in Decision Analysis• Most development decisions are not well supported, since most
scientific studies omit issues decision-makers must consider• Decision Analysis comprehensively supports specific decisions• Such support is very effective in the private sector, and should
benefit development processes• ‘Embedding’ decision analysts within governments for providing
decision-specific support would enhance development success• Training up a generation of decision-analysts may be the single-
most effective development investment
Decision Analysis at the World Agroforestry Centre• The Land Health Decisions unit develops, adapts and applies
decision analysis tools in development contexts• The main objective is the design of effective decision analysis
processes and their mainstreaming in development
ContactEike Luedeling: [email protected] Keith Shepherd: [email protected]
Working directly with decision-makers
Decision Analysis can consider multiple development objectives
