19
At the CMP of Rs.52, the stock P/E ratio is at 11.4x/9.9x/8.5x for FY14-16E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14-15E is seen at Rs. 4.3/5.3/6.2 respectively. Net Sales of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%over FY14-16E. We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 65 for medium to long term investment. .................................. ( Page : 6-7 ) "BUY" 5th Feb 2014 on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume 3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore) we cut down our FY14-FY15E earninng estimates by 26%/15%. We expect the sales of the company to grow by 17% & by 20% yoy inFY14E & FY15E, however operating margin will sustain at 28.0%/28.5% over the same period. At the CMP of Rs. 276 the stock is trading at PE of 11.0x FY14E & 8.5x FY15E. We maintain our "Buy" rating on stock with revised price target of Rs. 350 per share based on P/BV of 1.5x and 1.3x of FY14E and FY15E. ........................................ ( Page : 4-5) Suprajit Engineering Ltd: "On top gear….." Sobha Developers Ltd: "New launches to spur growth" 5th Feb, 2014 Edition : 199 IEA-Equity Strategy "BUY" 5th Feb 2014 "NEUTRAL" 5th Feb 2014 The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led by strong growth across its key molecules. There has been recovery in ex-currency growth from the high single digits witnessed in the past two quarters. …………………. ( Page : 2-3) DIVISLAB : Strong Results Godrej Consumer Product :" Strategy Shining" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by 18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported growth across all geographies and segments, respectively. With launching new products in domestic as well as international market, Godrej CP will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs. .............................................. ( Page : 16 -18) Kalpatru Power Transmission : "Missed one……." "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue growth, we revise revenue estimates for FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone EBIDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating with target price at Rs.95/share. ................................................ ( Page : 12-15) Kolte-Patil Developers: "On track to meet FY14 guidence" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15E respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment. .......................... ( Page : 10-11) "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%. So taking all this into consideration share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one can expect growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised price target to Rs 648 ................................. ( Page :8-9) SWARAJ ENGINES: "Long term fundamental continue to remains intact " Narnolia Securities Ltd, India Equity Analytics Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

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Page 1: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

At the CMP of Rs.52, the stock P/E ratio is at 11.4x/9.9x/8.5x for FY14-16E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14-15E is seen

at Rs. 4.3/5.3/6.2 respectively. Net Sales of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%over FY14-16E. We expect that the company

surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this

particular scrip with a target price of Rs 65 for medium to long term investment. .................................. ( Page : 6-7 )

"BUY" 5th Feb 2014

on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume 3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore)

we cut down our FY14-FY15E earninng estimates by 26%/15%. We expect the sales of the company to grow by 17% & by 20% yoy inFY14E &

FY15E, however operating margin will sustain at 28.0%/28.5% over the same period. At the CMP of Rs. 276 the stock is trading at PE of 11.0x

FY14E & 8.5x FY15E. We maintain our "Buy" rating on stock with revised price target of Rs. 350 per share based on P/BV of 1.5x and 1.3x of

FY14E and FY15E. ........................................ ( Page : 4-5)

Suprajit Engineering Ltd: "On top gear….."

Sobha Developers Ltd: "New launches to spur growth"

5th Feb, 2014

Edition : 199

IEA-Equity

Strategy

"BUY" 5th Feb 2014

"NEUTRAL" 5th Feb 2014

The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led by strong growth across its key molecules. There has been

recovery in ex-currency growth from the high single digits witnessed in the past two quarters. …………………. ( Page : 2-3)

DIVISLAB : Strong Results

Godrej Consumer Product :" Strategy Shining" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014

For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by 18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported

growth across all geographies and segments, respectively. With launching new products in domestic as well as international market, Godrej CP

will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs.

.............................................. ( Page : 16 -18)

Kalpatru Power Transmission : "Missed one……." "BUY" 4th Feb 2014

At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue growth, we revise revenue estimates for

FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone

EBIDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating with target price at Rs.95/share.

................................................ ( Page : 12-15)

Kolte-Patil Developers: "On track to meet FY14 guidence" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014

At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is

seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15E

respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is

expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to

continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target

price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment. .......................... ( Page : 10-11)

"BUY" 4th Feb 2014

At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue

growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and

capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%.

So taking all this into consideration share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one can expect

growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised

price target to Rs 648 ................................. ( Page :8-9)

SWARAJ ENGINES: "Long term fundamental continue to remains intact "

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

India Equity AnalyticsDaily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

Page 2: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 7.6 26.2 15.5

Rel. to Nifty 11 26.17 3.5

Current 2QFY14 1QFY1

4Promoters 52.1 52.1 52.2

FII 16.3 15.8 14.8

DII 13.2 12.5 12.5

Others 18.5 19.5 20.5

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 689 567 21.5 534 29.0

EBITDA 287 249 15.3 182 57.7

PAT 218 205 6.3 143 52.4

EBITDA Margin 41.7% 43.9% (230bps) 34.1% 760bps

PAT Margin 31.6% 36.2% (450bps) 26.8% 490bps

2

Upside

Change from Previous 5%

Previous Target Price

Key takeaways from management interaction

> Sales from DSN SEZ (all 5 units) are at of Rs 3.3 Bn for 9MFY14 (versus Rs 2.2 Bn in

FY2013). The company has total investments of Rs 6.0 Bn in the DSN SEZ and expects the

asset turnover to be 1.8-2.0 times.

Result Update NEUTRAL

1350

CMP 1337

The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led by strong

growth across its key molecules. There has been recovery in ex-currency growth from the

high single digits witnessed in the past two quarters.

> There has been reduction in power and fuel cost since August 2013 with 160 bps decline

on a sequential basis.

>CWIP is at Rs1.8 Bn at the end of 9MFY14. There has been a sharp increase in

receivables at Rs 7.1 Bn – 108 days versus 86 days in FY2013. Inventory days have

improved to 140 days in 9MFY14 versus 161 days in 1HFY14.

View & Valuation

The profits after tax came at Rs 218 Cr and NPM at 31.7 %.The other income for the

quarter came at Rs 8 Cr verses 22 Cr for the same time last fiscal. The tax rate for the

quarter was lower on yearly basis at 20 %.Forex Loss for the current quarter amounted to

Rs 5 Cr while there was a forex gain of Rs 16 Cr during the corresponding quarter last year.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)

One Year Price vs Nifty

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

17842

Average Daily Volume 5.43

Nifty 6000

The stock at CPM of Rs 1337 is trading at 22.05 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs

61.The stock has achieved our recommended Target price of Rs 1350 and therefore

we change our view to Neutral from BUY. The strong 3QFY14 results ,improvement in

operating metrics, Currency movement are few factor which still provide some upsides. We

have slightly revised our target price upwards to Rs 1420 based on our analysis.

52wk Range H/L 1390/905

NSE Symbol DIVISLAB

Market Data

BSE Code 532488

> Carotenoid sales for 9MFY14 are at Rs 910 Mn and expected to reach Rs1.5 Bn for

FY2015.

>The company expects the inspection (by regulatory/customers) for the 3 additional units at

DSN SEZ in 4QFY14. Sales from these units are expected to ramp up in 2QFY15.

DIVISLABStrong Results

Target Price 1420

The operating EBITDA for the quarter under review came at Rs 288 Cr and OPM at

41.7%.The operating margins improve by almost 760bps on the back of improvement in

company’s operating metrics, currency benefits and lower power cost . The RM cost to

sales for the quarter came at 36% while it was 49 % for the same time last fiscal. The

employ cost as percentage of sales also showed improvement of 100 bps on yearly basis.

The company has cut down its other expenses for the quarter to Rs 88 and it stands at 13

% of the net sales from 8% a year ago.

6%

"NEUTRAL"05th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 3: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

3

DIVISLAB

Sales and PAT Trend (Rs)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led

by strong growth across its key molecules.

Operating margins improve by almost 800bps

on the back of improvement in company’s

operating metrics, currency benefits and

lower power cost .

OPM %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

NPM %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

The tax rate for the quarter was lower on

yearly basis at 20 %.Forex Loss for the current

quarter amounted to Rs 5 Cr

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 4: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

Sobha Developers Ltd.

Buy276

350

460

27%

-24%

532784

SOBHA

282/472

3052

105448

6002

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -17 -36 -21

Rel. to Nifty (14) -35 (27)

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 60.6 60.6 60.6

FII 32.7 33.2 33.5

DII 2.9 2.6 2.8

Others 3.9 3.7 3.1

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 544.3 540.8 0.6 429.8 26.6

EBITDA 149.0 143.3 4.0 137.4 8.4

PAT 58.3 56.6 3.0 52.6 10.8

EBITDA Margin 27.4% 26.5% 90 bps 32.0% (460) bps

PAT Margin 10.7% 10.8% (10) bps 12.2% (150) bps

4

Sobha had at the begning of the fiscal set guidence of new sales area of 4.20 mnsft at Rs. 2600

crore for the current fiscal. At the close of 3 quarters of FY14, the company has registered a new

sales area of 2.66 mnsft valued at 1737 crore. However, post 3QFY14 result, management had

lowered his sales volume and booking guidence to 3.76 mnsft and Rs. 2200 crore largely

attributed to delay in approvels

Growth story remain intact;

The firm had launched two new projects: 0.66 mnsft of developable area and 0.46 mnsft of

saleable area in 3QFY14 and six new projects: 3.38 mnsft of developable area and 2.01 mnsft of

saleable area in 9MFY14. In CY14, the firm has plans to launch 11 mnsft, and out of which 3

mnsft in 4QFY14 especially in the Rs7.5-15mn price bracket that continues to see stable demand

as a result we able to belive that company will able to achive is revised sales volume guidence for

FY14E.

Nifty

Lowered FY14E sales volume & revenue Guidence

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

1 yr Forward P/B

Valuations;

on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume 3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft

and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore) we cut down our FY14-FY15E earninng estimates

by 26%/15%. We expect the sales of the company to grow by 17% & by 20% yoy inFY14E &

FY15E, however operating margin will sustain at 28.0%/28.5% over the same period. At the CMP

of Rs. 276 the stock is trading at PE of 11.0x FY14E & 8.5x FY15E. We maintain our "Buy" rating

on stock with revised price target of Rs. 350 per share based on P/BV of 1.5x and 1.3x of FY14E

and FY15E.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Previous Target Price

Market DataBSE Code

Average Daily Volume (Nos.)

NSE Symbol

52wk Range H/L

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

Despite of week volume numbers in NCR & Chennai Sobha reported its Q3FY14 numbers with a

topline that was inline street expectations at Rs. 544.3 crore. EBITDA for the quarter stood at

Rs. 149.0 crore, growing 8.4% yoy. The EBITDA margin were down 460 bps, yoy and stands at

27.4% during the quarter mainly on account of higher proportion of contractual projects

segment (this segment fetches about 20 per cent margins compared with property

development business’ 35 per cent and increase in input costs. However managemnet assures

that goinf forward margins should be around 28 percent and at profit before tax (PBT) and

profit after tax (PAT) level we are at 10 percent to 11 percent level. We maintain our "Buy"

rating on stock, however on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume

3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore) we cut down our

FY14-FY15E earninng estimates by 26%/15% and also reduce our price target to Rs. 350

"New launches to spur growth….."

Upside

Change from Previous

Result updateCMP

Target Price

"Buy"5th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 5: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

5

Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

SOBHA DEVELOPERS Ltd.

Key financials :

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 1130 1394 1408 1865 2180 2616

Other Income 4 5 6 6 6 6

Total Income 1134 1400 1414 1870 2186 2622

EBITDA 264 360 467 548 610 746

EBIT 231 332 428 489 542 674

DEPRICIATION 32 28 39 59 68 72

INTREST COST 69 86 117 171 175 200

PBT 166 251 318 324 373 479

TAX 27 67 108 107 126 162

Extra Oridiniary Items NA NA NA NA NA NA

Reported PAT 139 185 210 217 247 317

Dividend (INR) 25 29 49 69 69 69

DPS 2.4 3.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

EPS 13.6 18.8 21.4 22.1 25.2 32.3

Yeild %

EBITDA % 23.3% 25.8% 33.1% 29.4% 28.0% 28.5%

NPM % 12.2% 13.2% 14.9% 11.6% 11.3% 12.1%

Earning Yeild % 5.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.3% 9.1% 11.7%

Dividend Yeild % 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%

ROE % 8.1% 10.0% 10.5% 10.2% 10.7% 12.4%

ROCE% 6.5% 8.7% 10.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.8%

Page 6: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

Suprajit Engineering Ltd.

Buy52

65

NA

25%

NA

532509

32/62

624

10772

6002

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -3 56 57

Rel. to Nifty 1 57 51

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 51.8 51.8 51.8

FII 1.9 1.4 0.9

DII 1.6 1.7 1.4

Others 44.7 45.1 45.9

Valuations

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 159.5 123.1 29.6 123.1 29.5

EBITDA 30.0 21.0 43.0 20.0 49.9

PAT 16.2 13.9 16.2 10.8 49.1

EBITDA Margin 18.8% 17.1% 170 bps 16.3% 250 bps

PAT Margin 10.2% 11.1% (90) bps 8.8% 140 bps

(Consolidated)

6

NSE Symbol

52wk Range H/L

SUPRAJIT

Despite adverse market conditions, for the quarter ended December 2013, Suprajit Engineering

registered a good 30% rise in consolidated sales (including other operating income) to Rs

159.53 crore. OPM jumped 260 basis points to 18.8% which lifted OP growth to 50% to Rs

30.02 crore. Other income stood at negative Rs 68 lakh (against Rs 29 lakh) and interest cost

jumped 27% to Rs 3.43 crore. After providing for depreciation (up 14% to Rs 2.26 crore), PBT

jumped 51% to Rs 23.65 crore. Whereas tax grew 62% to Rs 7.50 crore after which PAT grew

47% to Rs 16.1 crore. Aftermarket and non-automotive exports business clocked robust

growths of 35% and 45% respectively. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) continues to deliver robust

margins (at 16-17%) despite weakness in the automotive space. With healthy return ratios (RoE

~30%, RoCE ~25%) and strong balance sheet. We expect a revenue growth for FY14-16E by 15%

on back of strong capacity expansion plan abd growth potential in the business. We modelled

our valuation parameteres, which make us believe that share is trading at lower then fair value

at current market price. We have "Buy" rating on stock with a Target price of Rs. 65. Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

Capex will see the company having the world's largest cable capacities

Nifty

Market DataBSE Code

Average Daily Volume (Nos.)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

1 yr Forward P/B

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

The Board of Directors critically assessed the business prospects for the next two years and have

approved the following capex plans considering the business growth in the next two years.

• A new cable plant, measuring 80,000 sf.ft at Narsapura Industrial area, Karnataka, on the land

already in possession.

• A new cable plant measuring 50,000 sq.ft to meet the customer requirements in Chennai at the

recently allotted land at Vallam-Vadagal Industrial Park, Tamilnadu.

• Significant capacity expansion at the existing Pathredi plant, Rajasthan, with an additional plant

measuring 110,000 sq.ft.

• Complete renovation and refurbishing of an existing plant in Bommasandra, Bangalore to

relocate the aftermarket manufacturing facility to meet increased demand.

• Several balancing equipment and buildings in other existing units to fine-tune the capacities to

meet additional customer requirements.

• Additional equipments to add capacity at its 100% owned subsidiary, Suprajit Automotive.

• The capex for the above plans would be approximately Rs. 60 crore.

With these capex plans spread over the next 18-24 months, the company's standalone cable

capacity will exceed 200 mn cables / year and on a consolidated basis will exceed 225 mn cables

year. This would be one of the world's largest cable capacities.

At the CMP of Rs.52, the stock P/E ratio is at 11.4x/9.9x/8.5x for FY14-16E respectively. EPS of

the company for the earnings for FY14-15E is seen at Rs. 4.3/5.3/6.2 respectively. Net Sales of

the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%over FY14-16E. We expect that the company

surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the

coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 65 for

medium to long term investment.

"On top gear….."

Upside

Change from Previous

Result updateCMP

Target Price

Previous Target Price

"Buy"5th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 7: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

7

Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

SOBHA DEVELOPERS Ltd.

Key financials :

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Performance

Revenue 248 347 424 463 540 637 752

Other Income 0 5 3 3 7 7 7

Total Income 249 351 427 465 547 644 759

EBITDA 47 57 69 77 92 107 127

EBIT 40 50 61 69 84 97 115

DEPRICIATION 7 7 7 8 8 10 12

INTREST COST 6 7 9 10 13 15 17

PBT 34 47 55 67 78 89 105

TAX 11 13 15 20 23 26 31

Extra Oridiniary Items 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

Reported PAT 24 34 40 47 55 63 74

Dividend (INR) 6 6 9 10 15 17 19

DPS 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6

EPS 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.3 6.2

Yeild %

EBITDA % 19.0% 16.5% 16.2% 16.7% 17.0% 16.9% 16.9%

NPM % 9.4% 9.6% 9.3% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8% 9.7%

Earning Yeild % 12.2% 15.1% 16.8% 11.8% 8.8% 10.1% 11.8%

Dividend Yeild % 3.1% 2.8% 3.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0%

ROE % 33.5% 34.8% 30.8% 28.3% 26.5% 25.0% 24.1%

ROCE% 22.5% 25.3% 23.2% 20.6% 19.6% 18.9% 18.7%

Position

Net Worth 70 97 129 167 207 252 307

Total Debt 62 66 82 111 140 160 180

Capital Employed 132 163 212 278 347 412 487

No of Share (Adj) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

CMP 16 19 20 33 52 52 52

Valuation

Book Value 5.9 8.1 10.8 13.9 17.2 21.0 25.6

P/B 2.7 2.3 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.0

Int/Coverage 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.7

P/E 8.2 6.6 6.0 8.5 11.4 9.9 8.5

Page 8: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

V- SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

CMP 598

Target Price 648

600

Upside 8%

7%

BSE Code 500407

NSE Symbol

742

601

Nifty 6,002

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute (6.6) 24.3 51.4

Rel. to Nifty (2.3) 24.7 45.3

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 50.6 50.6 50.6

FII 1.9 1.9 1.5

DII 10.6 10.4 10.6

Others 36.9 37.1 37.3 Valuations :

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14A 2QFY14A (Var)-% 3QFY13A (YoY)-%

Revenue 150.2 151.6 -0.9% 124.6 21.7%

EBITDA 21.8 22.7 -3.8% 18.4 23.3%

PAT 15.6 17.2 -9.5% 13.8 24.9%

EBITDA Margin 14.5% 14.9% (40) bps 14.8% (30) bps

PAT Margin 10.8% 11.0% (20) bps 10.7% 10 bps

8

(Standalone) (Source: Company/Eastwind Research)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

1 yr Forward P/B

At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of

INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26%

post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and capable

of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of INR58crore, the company has

strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend

payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%. So taking all this into consideration

share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one

can expect growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our

rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised price target to Rs 648.

We have modeled a 25% of revenue growth for FY15 yoy respectively, due to SWE’s ability to

maintain growth in product volume and recent enhancement in annual production capacity from

75,000 units to 105,000 units. Company currently operates at TTM EBITDA and net margin of

14.8% and 11.3% respectively, which provides sufficient cushion against operating cost. With

liquidity being moderate and cash flow positive, company has enough cash to finance its

expansion plan of Rs. 38 crore through internal accruals.

Outlook :

Leading supplier to Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd – A key source to growth: SEL enjoys the access to

the India’s largest tractor manufacturer “M&M” (41% market share in Domestic tractor industry),

which has a holding of 33% in SEL. Swaraj Engines Ltd manufactures tractor engines solely for the

“Swaraj Division” of M&M. It caters to ~80% demand of Swaraj division of M&M and rest 20% of

demand is met through Kirloskar Oil Engines, which has a holding of 17% in SEL. The demand

from M&M is estimated to grow further and reach ~85‐90%.

Leading supplier to Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd :

Share Holding Pattern-%

Stock Performance-%

Average Daily Volume

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

52wk Range H/L

Previous Target Price

SWARAJENG

Change from Previous

Market Data

382/535

" Long term fundamental continue to remains intact…. "

AccumulateResult update Swaraj Engines posted a moderate revenue growth of 20.8% to Rs. 150.2 crore during Q3FY14

over corresponding period of previous year due to 21.2% growth yoy reported in diesel engines

sales volume. Company sold 18,530 diesel engines during the quarter as compared to 15,288

engines sold during corresponding period of previous year. EBITDA of the company marginally

outpaced by the revenue due to unexpected rise in non operating expenses and stands at Rs.

21.8 crore up by 18.6% yoy. Though company managed to control material cost, which

constitutes ~90% of the total expenses; however, employee cost and administration expenses

reported the growth of 22.1% and 23.9% respectively during the quarter. As a result, EBITDA

and PBT margin reported a marginal deterioration of 24bps and 5bps during Q3FY14 yoy

respectively. PAT reflected in-line numbers and reported the yoy growth of 21.4% to Rs. 16.7

crore before extra ordiniary item of Rs. 1.15 crore; while PAT margin improved by 5bps.

"Accumulate"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 9: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

9

9

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Ammount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

Key financials :

(Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 208 282 361 449 479 602 750

Other Income 5 10 8 12 15 18 20

Total Income 213 292 369 461 494 620 770

EBITDA 32 50 61 69 71 87 109

EBIT 27 45 56 65 64 78 98

DEPRICIATION 5 5 4 4 7 9 11

INTREST COST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PBT 32 55 64 77 79 96 118

TAX 11 17 20 24 24 30 37

Reported PAT 21 37 44 53 55 66 81

Dividend 7 12 14 19 48 24 30

EPS 17.2 30.1 35.4 42.5 44.6 53.5 65.4

DPS 5.9 9.3 11.6 15.1 38.4 19.3 24.2

Yeild %

EBITDA % 15.3% 17.6% 16.8% 15.5% 14.9% 14.5% 14.5%

PBT % 15.1% 18.7% 17.4% 16.8% 16.1% 16.0% 15.7%

NPM % 10.0% 12.8% 11.9% 11.5% 11.2% 11.0% 10.8%

Earning Yeild % 8.0% 31.6% 12.2% 9.9% 11.3% 9.0% 10.9%

Dividend Yeild % 2.7% 9.8% 4.0% 3.5% 9.7% 3.2% 4.0%

ROE % 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.1% 28.3%

ROCE% 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.1% 28.3%

Position

Net Worth 97 123 152 186 194 236 287

No of Share 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

CMP 214 95 290 429 395 598 598

Valuation

Book Value 78.3 98.8 122.6 150.0 156.0 190.2 231.5

P/B 2.7 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 2.6

P/E 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.8 11.2 9.1

Net Sales/Equity 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6

Page 10: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

V- Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd.

CMP 74

Target Price 100

120

Upside 35%

0%

BSE Code 532924

NSE Symbol

558

239,587

Nifty 6,002

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute (18.8) (36.6) (16.3)

Rel. to Nifty (14.5) (36.3) (22.4)

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 74.5 74.5 74.5

FII 1.4 1.4 1.5

DII 0.4 0.8 0.5

Others 23.8 23.5 23.5 Valuations

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (Var)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 188.1 188.6 -0.3% 225.4 -16.5%

EBITDA 57.3 60.3 -5.0% 62.9 -9.0%

PAT 20.4 32.2 -36.7% 30.6 -33.2%

EBITDA Margin 30.4% 32.0% (160) bps 27.9% 252 bps

PAT Margin 15.8% 18.3% (250) bps 16.6% (80) bps

10

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Change from Previous

Previous Target Price

KOLTEPATIL

1 yr Forward P/B

At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the

company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net

Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15E

respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for

FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E

and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for

the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in

this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment.

New sales booking recorded in Q3FY14 is 0.44 msf of which about 93% is residential and 7%

commercial projects. The sales value was worth Rs 253 crore. The Average price realization (APR)

for the quarter stood at Rs 5730/sft with average price for residential project stood at Rs

5421/sft and that for commercial project at Rs 9932/sft. The ongoing projects as end of Dec 2013

have a saleable area is 14.1 msf (KPDL's share is 9.3 msf) and of which the company already sold

about 7.8 msf with a sale value of Rs 3157.7 crore. Cumulative collection as end of Dec 2013 in

case of ongoing projects is about Rs 2442.7 crore and the collection in Q3FY14 stood at Rs 230

crore. In January 2014 launched 0.2 msf (of total saleable area of 0.9 msf) of Jazz Phase I at

Aundh. Jan 2, 2014 the company obtained final approval and started pre launch activity and

made 34 units as far as 0.6 msf Mirabilis, Horamavu, Bengaluru project. Gross debt excluding

compulsory convertible debentures (CCD) is Rs 205 crore and the net debt is Rs 127 crore. In

Q3FY14 recorded its first sale in Mumbai of 2,200 sft. at an APR of Rs 34375/sft.

Management Guidence

Management is hopeful of achiveing a topline target of Rs. 800-900 crore for FY14E and new area

sales booking of 1.8 - 2 msf for FY2014 with average price realization of Rs 5300/sft.

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

52wk Range H/L 49/115

Share Holding Pattern-%

Stock Performance-%

Market Data

(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)

Average Daily Volume

Result update

"On track to meet FY14 guidence.........."

The company posted de-growth in its revenue and net profit during the third quarter

compared to same period last year. KPD's net revenue for Q3FY14 dipped to Rs 188 crore

against Rs 225 crore in Q3FY13. The company's net profit also decreased to Rs 20.40 crore in

Q3FY14 against Rs 30.52 crore in Q3FY13. However, the company's net revenues for first nine

months for FY14 grew by 15 per cent to Rs 593 crore against Rs 518 crore in 9MFY13.

Interestingly the company's EBITDA soared up by 45 per cent to Rs 181 crore in 9MFY14 on

yearly basis. This has improved its EBITDA margins by 630 basis points on yearly basis. The PAT

stood at Rs 79 crore in 9MFY14 against the PAT during same period in last financial year. Based

on revised volume guidence by management in range of 1.8-2.0mnsft, we cut our FY14/FY15

earnings by 5%/8% while maintaining BUY with a revised TP of Rs 100 (Rs 120 earlier)

Buy

"Buy"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 11: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

11

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Ammount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd.

Key financials :

(Source: Eastwind Research) (Figures in crore)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 186 148 204 249 743 825 908

Other Income 50 5 5 10 7 7 18

Total Income 236 153 209 260 750 832 925

EBITDA 85 58 91 68 201 248 272

EBIT 84 57 89 66 196 240 265

DEPRICIATION 1 2 2 2 5 8 8

INTREST COST 8 8 7 24 42 46 46

PBT 126 54 87 50 160 201 237

TAX 40 16 30 14 55 69 81

Reported PAT 9 36 61 82 108 132 155

Dividend 8 8 12 12 30 30 30

EPS 11.5 5.0 7.5 4.7 16.4 17.4 20.5

DPS 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6 4.0 4.0 4.0

Yeild %

EBITDA % 45.8% 39.5% 44.4% 27.2% 26.4% 30.0% 30.0%

NPM % 36.7% 24.7% 27.3% 13.8% 16.2% 15.9% 16.8%

Earning Yeild % 58.0% 9.3% 16.4% 12.1% 18.4% 23.7% 27.9%

Dividend Yeild % 5.1% 1.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.5% 5.4% 5.4%

ROE % 13.2% 5.6% 8.2% 5.0% 17.3% 16.1% 16.4%

ROCE% 10.6% 4.6% 6.5% 3.8% 13.9% 12.3% 13.0%

Position

Net Worth 657 675 700 721 717 819 944

Total Debt 159 150 175 226 173 250 250

Capital Employed 816 824 874 947 891 1069 1194

No of Share 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

CMP 20 54 46 39 89 74 74

Valuation

Book Value 87.2 89.4 92.3 95.2 94.6 108.1 124.6

P/B 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6

Int/Coverage 11.2 6.8 13.1 2.7 5.1 5.2 5.8

P/E 1.7 10.8 6.1 8.3 5.4 4.2 3.6

Page 12: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

Kalpatru Power Transmission

Result CMP 73

Target Price 95

Previous

Target Price

120

Upside 30%

Change from

Previous

-21%

Market DataBSE Code 522287

NSE Symbol

52wk Range

H/L

64/105

Mkt Capital

(Rs Crores)

1201

Average Daily

Volume (Nos.)

48500 JMC Projects EBITDA margins improve to 5.1%, PAT up 75.6% yoy to Rs.31.4mn:

Nifty 6002

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -18 -25 -11

Rel. to Nifty (13) (24) (17) Standalone Performance for nine months ended Dec 2013

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 59 59 58

FII 9.7 9.9 10.9

DII 23.2 23.4 23.2

Others 7.6 7.3 7.8

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 1051.3 962.2 9.3 889.7 18.2

EBITDA 94.0 91.1 3.2 88.6 6.2

PAT 33.7 31.0 8.7 35.1 -4.1

EBITDA Margin 8.9% 9.5% (60) bps 10.0% 110 bps

PAT Margin 3.2% 3.2% 0 bps 3.9% (70) bps

(Standalone)

12

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

1 yr Forward P/B

Share Holding Pattern-%

Kalpataru Power Transmission reported a 26% growth in standalone net sales to Rs 2903.14 crore

for the nine months ended Dec'13 period. The growth was driven by Transmission business,

which constitute about 94% of total sales and was up by 33% YoY to Rs 2720.41 crore.

Infrastructure segment comprising of Railways and Pipeline execution reported a 36% fall in net

sales to Rs 138.48 crore largely due to lower execution and excessive rainfall in Eastern region of

the country. Other segment comprising of Biogas reported a 13% growth in net sales to Rs 44.25

crore.

OPM was down by 30 bps to 9.5%. While there was a better execution of Transmission sector

business including higher execution of export orders having better margins, continued losses in

Infrastructure segment resulted in fall in OPM The PBIT of Transmission business stood at Rs

259.25 crore with PBIT margin of about 9.5%, improvement of 60 bps YoY, where as

Infrastructure business reported loss of about Rs 36.48 crore as compared to profit of Rs 5.45

crore for nine months ended Dec'12 period. The Other segment PBIT was stood at Rs 3.49 crore

as compared to Rs 0.47 crore for nine months ended Dec'12 period. Thus overall OP was up by

23% to Rs 277.15 crore.

Other income was up by 10% to Rs 37.80 crore. Interest was up by about 24% to Rs 114.26 crore

and depreciation was up by 35% to Rs 51.33 crore, after which the PBT was up by 16% to Rs

149.36 crore. After providing total tax of Rs 50 crore, up by 25% YoY, standalone PAT for nine

Kalpataru Power Transmission reported a 18% growth in standalone net sales to Rs 1051.34

crore. The growth was driven by Transmission business, which constitute about 96% of total

sales and was up by 25% YoY to Rs 1007.22 crore. Infrastructure segment comprising of

Railways and Pipeline execution reported a 61% fall in net sales to Rs 28.05 crore largely due to

lower execution and excessive rainfall in Eastern region of the country. Other segment

comprising of Biogas reported a 6% growth in net sales to Rs 16.07 crore. OPM was down by

110 bps to 8.9%. While there was a better execution of Transmission sector business including

higher execution of export orders having better margins, continued losses in Infrastructure

segment resulted in fall in OPM. The PBIT of Transmission business stood at Rs 89.51 crore

with PBIT margin of about 9%, where as Infrastructure business reported loss of about Rs 15.23

crore as compared to profit of Rs 5 lakh for Dec'12 quarter. The Other segment PBIT was down

by 11% to Rs 1.80 crore. Thus overall OP was up by 6% to Rs 94.04 crore.

"Missed one……."

KALPATPOWR

Buy

Stock Performance-%

Standalone PAT grew by 75.1% yoy to Rs.58.3mn upon 8.8% yoy growth in income from

operations to Rs.6651mn, better than our PAT and revenue estimates of Rs.32.1 and Rs.6426mn.

Robust execution of better margin factories and buildings orders and cost optimization

measures,led 40 bps yoy increase in EBITDA margins to5.1%,

"Buy"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 13: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

13

Consolidated order book as end of Dec 2013 was above Rs 12500 crore and of which KPTL's was Rs

7000 crore and that of JMC Project's was Rs 5500 crore. JMC received new order worth Rs 880

crore in Q3 FY'14. About 54% of order book of Transmission business was from international

markets. About 50% of order book is from Government contracts in JMC Projects and rests are

private.

At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue

growth, we revise revenue estimates for FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of

continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone

EBIDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating

with target price at Rs.95/share.

Outlook:

Kalpatru Power Transmission.

Concall Highlights:

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Healthy order book:

• PGCIL has changed its model on bidding as PGCIL itself needs to be now competitive for winning

future bids. Competition continues to remain as it is, although everybody has become cautious.

Management expects good orders from PGCIL in Mar'14 quarter, which is the normal trend.

• Infrastructure segment comprising of railways and pipelines continue to report losses due to

lower execution, delays for some projects due to ROW issues and high and extended rainfall in

Eastern region of India, where the company has maximum orders.

• Infrastructure business has an order book of around Rs 420 crore of which 80% are legacy

orders. Management expects legacy orders to end by 2 more quarters after which better margins

and better results within the sector will come in. Railways are not making any money and it's been

very disappointing with not much to bid in and legacy orders hurting the margins.

• About 50% of order book is from Government contracts in JMC Projects and rests are private. Q4

will see some more margin improvement due to better execution. Margin improvement of about

50-75 bps will continue in FY'15 for JMC Projects.

• Overall, the management expects to end the year with a 20% net sales growth for FY'14 for KPTL

and about 15% for FY'15. Margins will hover around 10-10.5% for transmission business segment.

• Company has standalone debt of abut Rs 650 crore which it expects to bring down by about Rs

100 crore by end of FY'14. Average interest costs is about 10.5%. Consolidated debt is about Rs

2600 crore.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 14: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

14

Cost as a % of sales (Q-o-Q) :

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Cost % of revenue :

Kalpatru Power Transmission.

Margin % (Q-o-Q) :

Standalone, INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Standalone, INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Revenue (Q-o-Q) :

Story in graphs :T&D Revenue (INR) & T&D EBIT (%) (Q-o-Q) :

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 15: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

15

Kalpatru Power Transmission.

Key financials :

(Figures in crore)

Ammount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Eastwind Research)

INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 3246 4032 4363 5308 6085 7210 8166

Other Income 35 25 31 33 36 30 30

Total Income 3281 4057 4394 5341 6121 7240 8196

EBITDA 329 448 464 500 475 584 692

EBIT 272 373 376 402 352 445 525

DEPRICIATION 58 75 88 99 122 139 167

INTREST COST 137 126 117 158 194 263 263

PBT 170 272 291 277 194 212 293

TAX 42 69 79 73 60 65 90

Reported PAT 128 203 211 204 135 147 203

Dividend 23 23 27 27 27 27 27

EPS 9.7 15.3 13.8 13.3 8.8 9.6 13.2

DPS 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Yeild %

EBITDA % 10.1% 11.1% 10.6% 9.4% 7.8% 8.1% 8.5%

NPM % 3.9% 5.0% 4.8% 3.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.5%

Earning Yeild % 14.6% 7.3% 11.4% 12.3% 10.6% 13.1% 18.0%

Dividend Yeild % 2.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4%

ROE % 14.7% 19.7% 12.9% 11.0% 6.9% 7.1% 9.0%

ROCE% 7.1% 10.5% 8.5% 6.5% 3.7% 3.2% 4.3%

Position

Net Worth 870 1027 1645 1851 1947 2068 2244

Total Debt 945 901 831 1281 1669 2500 2500

Capital Employed 1815 1929 2476 3133 3616 4568 4744

No of Share 13 13 15 15 15 15 15

CMP 66 210 121 108 83 73 73

Valuation

Book Value 65.6 77.5 107.2 120.7 126.9 134.8 146.2

P/B 1.0 2.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5

Int/Coverage 2.0 3.0 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.0

P/E 6.8 13.7 8.8 8.1 9.4 7.6 5.5

Page 16: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

Godrej Consumer Product

722

960

725

33%

32%

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -13.8 1.5 5.4

Rel. to Nifty -10.3 1.4 0.6

Current 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 63.3 63.3 63.3

FII 28.9 28.7 28.3

DII 1.4 1.2 1.2

Others 6.5 6.8 7.2

Financials Rs, Cr

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 1982.3 1961.7 1.1% 1695.6 16.9%

EBITDA 311.1 299.8 3.8% 284.9 9.2%

PAT 196 195 0.5% 172.2 13.8%

EBITDA Margin 15.7% 15.3% 210bps 16.8% (30bps)

PAT Margin 9.9% 9.9% 220bps 10.2% (10bps)16

Market Data

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

View and Valuations: Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticides

business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in its

international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Despite

some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus, macro uncertainties in

Africa and LatAM, and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales

growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond. At a CMP of Rs722, stock trades

at 5.1x FY15E P/BV. We retain BUY with a price target of Rs 960.

Its strong focus on driving growth in the domestic and international market by

expansion of products and distribution reach, we expect strong earning in near

future. With launching new products in domestic as well as international mkt, Godrej

CP will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10

strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs.

Margin decline: The Company has been able to maintain its margin more than 15%

mark. EBITDA margin declined 110bps (YoY) to 15.7%, due to rise in A&P cost by 80 bps

to 11.5%. However, there was decline in RM cost by 500 bps to 38.8% of adjusted net

sales.

On Category wise: During the Quarter, Household insecticides grew by +8%, adversely

impacted by abnormal seasonal slowdown. Both the key brands Hit and Good knight

continue to gain share and strengthen market leadership positions across all formats.

Soap sales growth was +6%, volume growth at +4%, ahead of the category growth, but

down in value and volume term. Strong momentum in hair colours was maintained,

delivering sales growth at +37%. Liquid detergents grew 36%.

Geography wise performance: For 3QFY14, Business from India grew by 18% and

contributed 53% of total revenue, Indonesia grew by +18% and contributed 17% of total

revenue, Africa grew by 29% and contributed 15% of total revenue, Latin America grew

by 15% and contributed 8% of total revenue and Europe’s business continued strong

sales performance on both organic and Soft & Gentle (S&G) product portfolio. Business

reported growth of 124%.

Products strategy: The company continues to gain and enjoy market leader ship position

across all three formats. The company is driving increase in penetration with launch of

"Goodknight Advanced colour play".

Recent developments: The Company has entered into an agreement on Oct 7, 2013, to

acquire a 30% stake in Bhabani Blunt Hair Dressing Pvt Ltd, a premier hair salon

company with one of the strongest consumer franchises in this space.

For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by

18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported growth across all

geographies and segments, respectively. PAT grew by 14% on YoY basis.

" Strategy Shining"

CMP

Upside

Almost inline set of numbers;

Target Price

Result update BUY

Previous Target Price

Change from Previous

1 yr Forward P/B

Share Holding Pattern-%

120012

Nifty 6002

24573

977/672

BSE Code 532424

NSE Symbol GODREJCP

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance

52wk Range H/L

Average Daily Volume

"BUY"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 17: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

17

Godrej Consumer Product

It expects expansion in gross margin,

which will help it to fund new product

launches.

Margin-%

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

India branded business grows 17%,

ahead of the market growth across core

categories.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Sales and its Growth(%)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Region-wise EBITDA Margin

Domestic and Export sales-(% of Sales)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Regions 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY142

India 18.9% 20.4% 20.2% 15.1% 17.6% 18% 16.7% 15.8% 18.9% 18.5%

Indonesia 19.4% 20.6% 20.7% 18% 19% 20% 19% 15% 17% 16.0%

Africa 26.0% 31% 19.3% 19% 16% 20% 7% 13% 14% 18.0%

Latin America 7.4% 9% 16.3% 3% 4% 8% 9% 3% 7% 9.0%

Europe 11% 5% 10.5% 13% 9% 5% 13% 9% 10% 6.0%

Page 18: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

18

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Financials and Valuation

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Godrej Consumer Product

(4)The company will continue investing judiciously for the longer term to improve

position, create competitive advantage and emerge stronger than before.

(5) They are not seeing any major impact on Argentina or Africa revenue, because of

economic uncertainties,

Key facts from Conference call (attended on 3rd Feb 2014);

(1) The management stated that the company is continue to be aggressive in launching

new innovations that have been well accepted by consumers. They are backing new

launches with strong investments.

(2) More focusing on Innovative pipeline and Brand equity to maintain its market share

across brands,They will launch a new product next week, but they did not tell the

segment name.

(3) Q4 will be better quarter for household segments.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Sales 2041.2 3693.6 4866.16 6390.79 7701.26 9053.82

Other Operating Income 2.5 28.11 45.93 16.58 15.40 18.11

Total income from operations 2043.7 3721.71 4912.09 6407.37 7716.66 9071.93

RM Cost 619.59 1458.28 2174.67 2640.31 3028.79 3719.49

Purchases of stock-in-trade 367.16 294.12 356.11 451.03 559.46 657.71

WIP -40.45 -45.22 -212.26 -118.06 -23.15 -90.72

Employee Cost 151.81 284.51 391.91 590.68 733.08 907.19

Ad Spend 132.8 352.85 449.86 660.35 887.42 997.91

Other expenses 402.98 695.96 850.47 1196.46 1311.8 1587.6

Total expenses 1633.89 3040.5 4010.76 5420.77 6497.4 7779.2

EBITDA 409.81 681.21 901.33 986.6 1219.2 1292.7

Depreciation and Amortisation 23.6 49.92 64.44 77 92.7 100.4

Other Income 44.81 24.13 6.07 67.78 57.9 90.7

Exceptional Item 0 41.14 200.17 96.12 38.6 45.4

EBIT 386.21 631.29 836.89 909.6 1126.5 1192.3

Interest 11.1 43.64 65.84 77.45 87.7 78.7

PBT 419.92 652.92 977.29 996.05 1135.3 1249.7

Tax Exp 80.33 138.21 226.05 179.18 204.35 249.94

PAT 339.59 514.71 751.24 816.87 930.9 999.8

Growth-% (YoY)

Sales 46.3% 81.0% 31.7% 31.3% 20.5% 17.6%

EBITDA 95.2% 66.2% 32.3% 9.5% 23.6% 6.0%

PAT 97.0% 51.6% 46.0% 8.7% 14.0% 7.4%

Expenses on Sales-%

RM Cost 30.3% 39.2% 44.3% 41.2% 39.3% 41.0%

Ad Spend 6.5% 9.5% 9.2% 10.3% 11.5% 11.0%

Employee Cost 7.4% 7.6% 8.0% 9.2% 9.5% 10.0%

Other expenses 19.7% 18.7% 17.3% 18.7% 17.0% 17.5%

Tax rate 19.1% 21.2% 23.1% 18.0% 18.0% 20.0%

Margin-%

EBITDA 20.1% 18.3% 18.3% 15.4% 15.8% 14.3%

EBIT 18.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.2% 14.6% 13.1%

PAT 16.6% 13.8% 15.3% 12.7% 12.1% 11.0%

Valuation:

CMP 261 365 559 836 722.0 722.0

No of Share 30.8 32.4 34 34.03 34.03 34.03

NW 954.7 1725.2 2815.2 3313.0 4044.9 4845.6

EPS 11.0 15.9 22.1 24.0 27.4 29.4

BVPS 31.0 53.2 82.8 97.4 118.9 142.4

RoE-% 35.6% 29.8% 26.7% 24.7% 23.0% 20.6%

Div- Payout-% 30.6% 38.3% 22.6% 23.0% 21.4% 19.9%

P/BV 8.4 6.9 6.8 8.6 6.1 5.1

P/E 23.7 23.0 25.3 34.8 26.4 24.6

Page 19: India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd

Narnolia Securities Ltd402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph

033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

email: [email protected],

website : www.narnolia.com

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of

the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation

advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any

action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been

furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or

redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly

available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we

consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not

provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change

without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,

should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that

past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of

any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to

assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates

and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or

otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and

other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned

in this report/message.