Europ eco outlook 2 may 2013 hs_financelab

Slow�turnaround

European�Economic�and�Crisis Update

Holger�Sandte,�Chief European�Analyst2 May�2013�

• Financial�markets:�In�central�banks�we�trust�(too�much)

• Euro�crisis:�where�we�are�and�where�we�– might�– go

• EuroͲarea�recovery:�slow,�fragile,�multiͲspeed

• ECB:�When�the�toolbox�is�almost�empty�…

• Key�takeͲaways________________• Annex�of�tables�• Key�forecasts

2

Equity�Markets:�Japan!�

3

Financial�markets

1990�Ͳ�2012 2003Ͳ07 2008 1990�Ͳ�2012 endͲ2012 01/05/2013 2013�low 2013�high

S&P�500 8 11 Ͳ38 12 1,426 1,583 11.0 Ͳ0.9 11.0

Euro�STOXX�50 7 13 Ͳ44 3 2,636 2,712 6.2 Ͳ1.4 2.9

DAX* 10 23 Ͳ40 14 7,612 7,914 6.1 Ͳ1.8 4.0

Nikkei Ͳ3 14 Ͳ42 5 10,395 13,694 31.7 Ͳ1.7 31.7

MSCI�EM�(USͲ$) 15 38 Ͳ54 21 1,055 1,038 4.1 Ͳ4.1 Ͳ1.6*�PerformanceͲIndex

�

current�compared�to�Indexchange�p.a.�in�% change�over�endͲ2012�in�%

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1350

100

150

200

50

100

150

200Index 1 Jan 2005=100

Euro STOXX vs S&P vs Nikkei

Euro STOXX

Nikkei 225

S&P 500

Index 1 Jan 2005=100

EUR�govies:�spreads�narrowing��

4

Financial�markets


09 10 11 12 130

5

10

15

20

0

5

10

15

20 10y Government bond yields spread vs German Bunds

100 bp100 bp

FranceItalySpainIrelandPortugal

Commodity�prices:�reflecting�global�soft�spot

5

Commodities


07 08 09 10 11 12 132000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

30

50

70

90

110

130

150USD/ton

Copper (rhs)

Commodity prices

Brent

USD/barrel

• Euro�crisis:�where�we�are�and�where�we�– might�– go– Why is�Europe�struggling so�hard with�the�crisis?– The�“German�view”�– Where�are�we�now?– Where�do�we�go�from�here?– Lessons�form�Cyprus�for�the�Banking�Union

6

Why is�Europa�struggling so�hard with�the�crisis?

• It’s�a�complex�crisis:�debt�(both�public�&�private),�economic�structures,�competitiveness,�banks,�confidence,�politics,�institutions�

• Euro�area��=��designed�by�poliƟcians��т��opƟmal�currency�area

• Euro��=��currency�without�a�state

• Only�the�ECB�can�act�quickly,�17�European�governments�cannot

• Big�differences�between�countries�/�governments�…– …�in�economic�and�monetary�policy�ideas�(”Latin”�vs.�”Germanic“�view)– …�concerning�the�causes�of�the�crisis�and�the�right�therapy�(how�much�austerity?)– …�in�the�willingness�to�give�up�sovereignty�/�to�shift�power�“to�Europe”– …�in�the�vision�for�Europe:�there simply is�no (single)�vision

• Below�the�European�surface,�there�is�still�a�lot�of�nationalism,�as�people’s�attitudes�are�shaped�by�national�historical�experience

7

Euro�crisis

Monetary�unions�now�and�past�

8

Euro�crisis

Source:�Nordea�Markets�and�Roubini Global�Economics

Political�Union

Fiscal�transfers�between�states

Hard�budget�constraints�for�member�states

Centralized�control�of�money�supply�by�Central�

Bank

Financial�stability�function�of�Central�Bank Regime�type Outcome

Latin�Monetary�Union Orderly�dissolution�/�move�to�Gold�Standard�in�1926

Scandin.�Monetary�Union SemiͲorderly�dissolution

Gold�Standard Disorderly�dissolution�in�the�1930s

Ruble�Zone n/a National �monetary�union

Disorderly�dissolution�1992/93

Argentina partial Peg Disorderly�dissolution�2001

U.S.�1790�Ͳ�1850 Added�hardͲbudget�constraints

U.S.�1850�Ͳ�1861 Civil �War

U.S.�1861/65�Ͳ�1913 yes Added�partial �centralization�of�CB's �control �of�MS

U.S.�1913�Ͳ�1935 partial no Added�finanical �stability�function�for�the�Fed�founded�in�1913

U.S.�post�Ͳ�1935 Stable

European�Monetary�Union perhaps

Sui�generis��17�states�Ͳ�one�currency

more�integration�or�breakͲup

Based�on�Roubini�Global�Economics�(A�HowͲTo�Manual�for�an�Amicable�EZ�Divorce)

QuasiͲfixed�exchange�rate

National �monetary�union

no

no

not�yet yes

yes

yes

no

yes

yes

yes

no

no

no

no

partial

no

The�”German�view”:�Do.�your.�homework.

(Note:�There�is�no�uniform�”German�view”�properly�speaking.�What�outside�Germany�is�called�“the�German�view”�is�probably�the�position�the�government�and�the�Bundesbank agree�upon):��

• Crisis�was�primarily�caused�by�excessive�public�debt• “Austerity”�is�an�unavoidable�part�of�the�solution,�not�part�of�the�problem.�No�pain,�no�gain��• Austerity�policy�must�be�complemented�by�growthͲenhancing�structural/supplyͲside�reforms�• Germany�played�no�role�in�causing�the�crisis• For�many�reasons�– economic,�financial,�political�and�historical�–,�Germany�is�highly�

interested�in�European�integration�and�in�a�Euro�area�that�works.�Therefore,�it�contributes�to�buying�time�for�crisis�countries�to�do�their�homework�

• Any�solution�that�might�mean�higher�inflation�in�Germany�is�out�of�the�question

9

Euro�crisis /�Germany

…�and�don’t�ask�for�too�many�lifebelts

10

Euro�crisis /�Germany

Source:�The�Economist�

Maastricht�world vs.�real�world

The�Maastricht�world

• Fiscal�selfͲreliance,�politicians�conͲstrained�by�rules�(stability�and�growth�pact/SGP,�1997)�and�market�pressure�

• No bailͲout

• Independent�central�bank,�no�monetization�of�government�debt�

• EMU�economies�converge economically�and�financially

• National�policies�fully�sufficient�to�counter�any�financial�imbalances�

11

Euro�area

The�real�world�in�2013�

¾ Market�pressure�didn’t�work�and�politicians�ruined�the�SGP

¾ BailͲouts�for�Greece�(2010�and�2012),�Ireland�(2010),�Portugal�(2011),�Spanish�banks�(2012),�and�Cyprus�(2013)

¾ ECB�dancing�very�close�to�finance�ministers�

¾ Large�economic�divergencies between�EMU�countries,�financial�market�fragmented�

¾ Financial�stability�seen�as�a�European�task�Æ Banking�Union,�but�still�a�long�way�to�go

Euro�crisis�– where�are�we�now?

• BreakͲup: off�the�table�– for�now

• Firewall: ESM�and�ECB�technically�ready�to�act

• Confidence: returned�to�some�degree,�but�still�low

• Economy: in�recession�since,�slow�and�multiͲspeed�recovery�likely�

• Rebalancing: still�a�long�way�to�go;�mostly�driven�by�deficit�countries

• Budget�deficits: mostly�shrinking�at�a�slow�pace

• Financial�markets declining�on�the�funding�side,�but�still�strong�on�thefragmentation: lending�side�(interest�rates,�credit�conditions)

• Banking�Union: moving�ahead�very�slowly

• Politics: ongoing debate�on�how�much�austerity�is�needed

12

Euro�crisis

Euro�area�– where�do�we�go�from�here?

13

Euro�crisis

Closer�integration�or�breakͲup?�

EMUͲ17�minus�GR,�CY�Ͳ possible

Northern�Euro

Meltdown

What�about�EU and�internal�market?Huge political andeconomic costs

Political�Union�/�Banking�Union�/�Fiscal�Union(“more�Europe”)

“Stability�union”based�on�competition,�with�liability�and�control�going�hand�in�hand,�the�German�view

“Transfer/liability�union”based�on�solidarity,�the�Mediterranean�view

But�how�exactly? Economic�reason�may�be�on�Germany’s�side.�But�political�conditions�and�time�are�not.�The�monetary�union�turns�into�a�“liability�union”.�MuddlingͲthrough�continues.

Back�to�Maastricht(national�sovereignty,�no�bailout)

Lessons�from�Cyprus�for�the�Banking�Union

Although�Cyprus�is�a�very�special�case,�there�may�be�some�lessons�to�draw:• BailͲin�of�a�bank’s�creditors�is�possible,�tax�payers�do�not�have�to�save�every�troubled�bank�• That�may�soften�German�resistance�to�a�Banking�Union�• Crisis�underscored�the�need�for�a�single�supervisor�not�captured�by�national�interests• Common�resolution�mechanism:�The�ECB�fills�a�part�of�that�role�by�providing�(or�not)�

emergency�liquidity• Needed:�A�credible�– probably�not�national�but�European�– system�of�deposit�insurance�

Euro�crisis /�Banking�Union�

14

Five�elements�of�a�European�Banking�Union• single�rulebook�for�banks�– exits�to�a�large�extent• single�supervisory�mechanism�– currently�discussed�by�European�Parliament• single�resolution�mechanism�– proposal�from�European��Commission�later�this�year�• common�fiscal�backstop�– ongoing discussion�about�bank�recapitalisation�by�ESM• common�system�for�deposit�insurance�– seems�to�be�off�the�table�for�the�moment

• EuroͲarea�recovery:�slow,�fragile,�multiͲspeed

• A�look�at�some�EuroͲarea�countries– Germany:�back�to�growth�from�early�2013�on�– France:�no�easy�way�out�of�the�gloom�– Italy�in�a�dead�end�– any�way�out?– Spain�adapting�to�the�postͲbubble�environment– Cyprus�...�and�Slovenia�next?

• ECB:�When�the�toolbox�is�almost�empty�…

15

A common�currency,�but�very�different�paths�

• The�“crisis�countries”�…• …�and�we�left�out�Greece�here

16

Euro�crisis

• The�more�stable�countries�…• …�some�of�which�are�also�in�recession


08 09 10 11 12 1385

90

95

100

105

85

90

95

100

105IndexIndex Real GDP, Q1 2008 = 100

CyprusSpain

IrelandItaly

PortugalSlovenia


08 09 10 11 12 1390

95

100

105

90

95

100

105IndexReal GDP, Q1 2008 = 100Index

BelgiumGermanyFinland

FranceNetherlandsAustria

ShortͲterm�outlook:�slow�und�bumpy�recovery�

• Euro�area�struggling�to�get�out�of�recession�and�the�outlook�is�not�rosy

• Here�is�why�we�still�expect�some�growth�from�H2�2013�on:�

– Monetary�policy�will�remain�extremely�loose�and�the�transmission�mechanism�should�work�better�over�time

– Fiscal�policy�was�highly�restrictive�last�year�but�is�less�so�this�year�and�probably�next

– A�weaker�euro�and�healthy�growth�in�the�US�and�many�Emerging�Markets�should�provide�tailwind�to�exports

– Structural�reforms�and�efforts�to�regain�competitiveness�will�pay�off�– although�we�have�to�admit�that�we�don’t�know�exactly�when.�

• GDP�forecast (2013/14):�Ͳ0.4%�/�1.4%

17

Euro�area


07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3% q/qGDP growth% q/q

GermanyFranceItalySpain


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5% y/yEuro area GDP% q/q annualised

M1�might�be�good�indicator�for�the�economy�

• Yes,�the�recovery�is�fragile,�but�all�hope�is�not�lost�

• M1�=�money�to�spend�=�currency�in�circulation�plus�overnight�deposits

• If�former�relationships�have�not�completely�broken�down�…

• …�M1�is�compatible�with�a�recovery�…• …�and�also�with�the�idea�that�equity�

markets�have�run�a�bit�far,�driven�by�liquidity

18

Euro�area

30

40

50

60

70

0

4

8

12

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12


PMI Compo-s ite (rhs )

M1 (3m moving average6 months ahead)

% y/y IndexM1 and PMI Composite

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

00 02 04 06 08 10 12


Euro Stoxx 50 (rhs )

%�y/y%�y/y

M1 (3m moving av., 6 months ahead)

M1 and the equity market

Which�currency�is�weak?�

19

Euro,�US�dollar�


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1380

90

100

110

120

130

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8IndexExternal value of the euroEUR-USD

stronger EUR

Real effective exchange rateQ1 1999=100 (rhs)


75 80 85 90 95 00 05 1080

90

100

110

120

130

80

90

100

110

120

130Index IndexReal broad effective USD

Stronger USDMean +/- std. deviation

Who�needs�a�weaker�currency?

20


07 08 09 10 11 12 1375

80

85

90

95

100

105

75

80

85

90

95

100

105Index Jan 2008 = 100

Manufacturing outputIndex Jan 2008 = 100

USAEuro area

Euro�area vs.�US

FX�longͲterm�view:�USD�to�strengthen�vs.�EUR

21


05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

107 USDForecast

EMU real GDP relative toUS real GDP

Index 2005=100

EUR/USD, rhs

EUR/USD


10 11 12 13 141.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50USD EUR/USD USD

Note: The model is based on the EUR-US 2Y swap rate differential (+). R = 0.69

Model forecast and95% confidence interval

Model forecast based on Nordea's swap rate forecast

Actual

Why�Germany�is�coping�relatively�well�at�the�moment

• ExportͲbased�growth�model�works�as�long�as�Emerging�Markets�and�US�are�growing�

• No�public�or�private�debt�excesses�to�correct

• Fiscal�policy�has�leeway�not�to�get�restrictive�now�(and�may�be�not�later,�either)

• Low�ECB�policy�rates�passed�through�to�companies�and�consumers�(monetary�transmission�mechanism�works)��

• Stable�labour�market;�new�jobs�are�created�at�low�growth,�but�productivity�stagnates�

• GDP�forecast (2013/14):�0.7%�/�2.1%

22

Germany


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 132

3

4

5

6

38

39

40

41

42 Mio. persons

Unemployed, rhs

Employed

Labour marketMio. persons

-40

-20

0

20

40

-20

-10

0

10

20

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Exports

Capex spending

Ifo export expec-tations (rhs)

% y/y Index

Source:�Nordea�Markets�and�Reuters�Ecowin�

ShortͲterm�outlook:�back�to�growth�in�early�2013��

• After�a�0.6%�drop�in�GDP�in�Q4,�survey�data�point�towards�a�rebound�in�Q1

• Capex spending�(down�five�quarters�in�a�row)�likely�to�have�stabilised

• Improvement�in�Southern�Europe�will�translate�into�German�exports�(as�well�as�capex sprending and�employment)

• Main�risks:– Deepening�of�the�crisis�in�southern�Europe

– France�sliding�into�a�deep�recession

• LongͲterm�challenges– Low�trend�growth

– Unfavorable demography

– (Parts�of�the)�banking�sector�

23

Germany


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-2

-1

0

1

2

80

90

100

110

120% q/q

Forecast

GDP and IFOIndex 2005=100

IFO, business expectations

GDP (rhs)


07 08 09 10 11 12 1370

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1602010=100

Euro areaTotal

Ex-Euro area

Export orders2010=100

A�house�price�bubble�in�Germany?�Well�…

24

Source: Nordea Markets, OECD and Reuters Ecowin

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1250

100

150

200

250

300

350

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Index

1995=100

Germany

Denmark

Real home pricesIndex1995=100

Norway

Sweden

Source: Nordea Markets, OECD and Reuters Ecowin

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1250

75

100

125

150

175

50

75

100

125

150

175IndexIndex Home price-income ratio

Note: 100 = long term average

DenmarkSwedenNorwayGermany

Germany

What�Germans�are�(not)�talking�about

…�talking�about:

• Euro�crisis:”Money�can’t�buy�you�friends”

• Tax�fraud�

• Fair�pay,�working�poor

• ”Energiewende”

• German�dominance (in�the�Champions�League)

25

…�not�(a�lot)�talking�about:

• Be�happy

• Germany�gains�from�the�euro�crisis�(low�interest�rate,�weaker�euro,�immigration)

• Does�it�make�much�sense�to�run�huge�export�and�current�account�surpluses?

• General�election�in�September�

Germany

Thoughts�on�the�German�election�(22�September)

• Angela�Merkel�is�popular,�no�strong�mood�for�change

• But:�Being�popular�doesn’t�assure�reͲelection�of�CDU/FDP�government

• A�new�party�to�watch:�”Alternative�für Deutschland“�(antiͲeuro)

• CDU/FDP�in�pole�position;�grand�coalition�and�SPD/Green�Party�coalition�possible

• Where�could�an�SPDͲled�government�make�a�difference?

– Economic�policy�(taxes,�social�security)� Æ less�businessͲfriendly– Management�of�the�euro�crisis� Æ ”more�Europe”,�less�austerity– Safe�heaven�status�of�Bunds Æ don’t�worry�too�much�

26

Germany

If�there�were�elections�next�Sunday�…

27

Germany

Source:�http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

The�Economist�on�Italy�and�France�

28

Italy,�France

No�easy�way�out�of�the�gloom�

• Nasty�mix�of�cyclical�and�structural�problems�

• Low�share�of�manufacturing�in�gross�value�added�(only�10%�compared�to�16.8%�in�Sweden�or�23%�in�Germany

• Low�profit�margins�in�the�industrial�sector,�concentrated�on�low/medium�valueͲadded�products,�…

• …�leading�to�a�high�priceͲelasticity�of�export�and�frequent�calls�for�weaker�euro

• Severe�loss�of�global�market�shares• Public�debt�issues,�rating�worries• Large�public�sector�but�low�efficiency�of�

government�activity�(eg in�education)• Expect�no�growth�for�2013�

29

France


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

40

60

80

100

120

140% y/yGDP and business climateIndex

GDP, rhs

INSEE business climate


99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450

60

70

80

90

100

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1 % of GDP

Note: EuropeanCommission forecast

General government debt, rhs

Public finances% of GDP

General government budget balance

Italy:�new�government faces old�problems

• Six�consecutive�quarters�of�declining�GDP…�

• …�which�is�now�as�high�(or�low)�as�it�was�in�2001��

• Italian�voters�clearly�rejected�austerity�in�late�February�…

• …�and�it�took�two�months�to�form�a�new�(grand�coalition)�government�

• GDP�to�decline�by�another�1¼%�this�year,�with�not�much�growth�in�2014�either��

30

Italy

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters EcoWin

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20Balance

Portugal

Greece

Consumer sentiment

Spain

Balance

Italy

Germany


05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5EURbn

Ireland

Italy

Trade balance

Greece

EURbn

Portugal

Spain

Note: primitive seasonal adjustment

Spain�adapting to�the�postͲbubble environment

• Typical�case�of�a�protracted�”balance�sheet�recession”:�

• Credit�boom�Æ assets�prices�n then�thebubble�bursts�Æ private�sector�deleverages�Æ savings�nÆ consumption,�investment�pÆ asset�prices�pÆ bad�loans�nÆ public�deficits�n

• Government�debt�rose�from�36%�of�GDP�in�2007�to�84%�in�2012

• Public�sector�deficit�still�10.6%�in�2012�(mainly�structural)�

• As�monetary�policy�doesn’t�work,�either�fiscal�policy�should�give�stimuli�(if�it�can),�or�recovery�has�to�come�from�exports�via�nominal�or�real�deprecation�

31

Spain

Spain:�housing correction going on,�exports brighter

• Downsizing�of�the�housing�sector�began�in�2008�– and�it’s�not�over�yet�

• Construction�investment�down�45%�since�2008�(GDP:only Ͳ7%)

• House�prices increased by�145%�from�2000�to�2007�and�declined by�only 17%�since

• Employment�down�19%�overall�and�62%�in�the�oversized�construction�sector�…

• …�and�it�hasn’t bottomed out�yet• Exports�the�brighter�spot,�both�goods�and�

services• GDP�forecast (2013/14):�Ͳ1.5%�/�0.9%

32

Spain

Slovenia�– vulnerable�but�very�different�from�Cyprus

• Banks are�struggling�with�the�second�recession�since�2009�and�sinking�house�prices�

• Bad�loans:�€ 7�bn according�to�IMF,�20%�of�GDP

• Economy�is�likely�to�shrink�by�around�2%�this�year.�So,�no�shortͲterm�relief�from�this�side

• Slovenia�may�need�external�help�but�it�is�very�different�from�Cyprus:�– Small�banking�sector,�less�need�for�bank�recapitalization�(far�below�10%�of�GDP)– State�as�majority�owner�of�the�banking�system�has�a�strong�interest�in�taking�part�in�

capital�increase– Public�debt�only�53.7%�of�GDP�(2012).�Cyprus:�86.5%– Economic�structure�much�healthier�than�in�Cyprus.�Industry�accounts�for�30%�of�gross�

value�added

Conclusion:• Should�investors�worry�about�Slovenia�and�follow�events�closely?�Yes• Will�Slovenia�be�the�next�Cyprus?�No• As�long�as�crisis�management�doesn’t�get�it�completely�wrong,�it�is�more�likely�to�be�a,�well,�

“normal”�case�of�crisis�– and�that�would�be�bad�enough

33

Ͳ0.75

Ͳ0.50

Ͳ0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13


PMI compositeoutput

Index bpPMI and ECB policy changes

Change in ECBmain refi rate (rhs)

ECB�“ready�to�act”�but�running�out�of�options

• The�latest�rate�cut�will�not�change�the�economic�outlook�much�…• …�and�it�will�not�ease�fragmentation�in�bank�lending¾ Monetary�policy�is�increasingly�”pushing�on�a�string”�

34

ECB


03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 123.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0 %Medium term interest rates on small loans%

GermanySpainFranceNetherlandsItaly

Fixing�the�monetary�transmission�mechanism�– but�how?

• Further�measures�to�support�lending�to�SMEs�are�likely,�e.g.:�– further/cheaper�liquidity�to�banks�that�lend�more�to�SMEs

– softer�rules�on�SME�loans�as�collateral�

• Don’t�expect�too�much�positive�effect

35

ECB

Key�takeͲaways

36

• Anyone�who�claims�that�he�knows�exactly�what�will�happen�with�the�euro�crisis�(and�when)�does�not�tell�you�the�truth

• Slow�and�bumpy�growth�ahead�for�the�Euro�area

• Wide�differences�between�EuroͲarea�economies�and�bond�yields�to�persist�

• ECB effective�in�avoiding�disaster�but�with�no�silver�bullet�to�kickͲstart�the�economy�

• Full�Banking�Union�will�not�arrive�quickly

• If�growth�does�not�return�by�2014�at�the�latest,�political�capital�risks�getting�exhausted�which�would�make�a�EuroͲarea�breakͲup�possible�

• Euro�weaker�vs.�the�dollar�over�time

• Return�of�capital�(not�on capital)�likely�to�stay�on�investors’�minds

Summary

• Annex�of�tables�• Key�forecasts

37

Global�Macro�forecasts

38

Annex tables

Source:�Nordea�Markets�and�Reuters�Ecowin

European�macro forecasts

39

Annex tables


Euro Area: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Private consumption 5,134 0.9 0.1 -1.2 -0.5 0.8Government consumption 1,988 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5Fixed investments 1,731 -0.3 1.6 -3.9 -1.0 5.7Exports 3,285 11.0 6.5 2.9 2.5 7.3Imports 3,167 9.5 4.3 -0.9 2.0 8.0Net exports* 118 0.7 0.9 1.6 0.2 -0.1GDP 2.0 1.5 -0.5 -0.4 1.4Nominal GDP, EUR bn 8,920 9,176 9,421 9,483 9,578 9,770

Unemployment rate, % 10.1 10.2 11.4 11.7 11.4Consumer prices, % y/y 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.6 1.6Current account, % of GDP 0.3 0.2 1.5 2.2 2.3General government budget balance, % of GDP -6.2 -4.1 -3.6 -2.8 -2.7General government gross debt, % of GDP 85.6 88.1 93.1 95.1 95.2


40

Annex tables

Germany: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Private consumption 1,391.6 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.5 1.0Government consumption and investment 475.3 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0Fixed investment 408.7 5.6 6.4 -1.9 3.2 6.7Exports 1,006.5 13.4 7.9 4.3 2.4 6.0Imports 889.6 10.9 7.5 2.2 3.6 6.7Net exports* 116.9 1.6 0.6 1.2 -0.4 0.2GDP 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.7 2.1Nominal GDP (EURbn) 2,374.5 2,496.2 2,592.6 2,643.9 2,696.8 2,764.2

Unemployment rate, % 7.7 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.5Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.7Current account, % of GDP 6.1 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.6General government budget balance, % of GDP -4.1 -0.8 0.2 -0.5 0.2Gross public debt, % of GDP 82.5 80.5 81.6 80.7 78.3



41

Annex tables


France: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Private consumption 1,029 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8Government consumption and investment 436 1.7 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.5Fixed investment 330 1.0 3.5 0.0 -0.7 2.4Exports 427 9.2 5.5 2.3 1.0 4.3Imports 469 8.4 5.2 -0.3 0.5 4.0Net exports* -42 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.1GDP 1.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.2Nominal GDP (EURbn) 1,886 1,936 1,995 2,028 2,048 2,089

Unemployment rate, % 9.7 9.6 10.3 10.7 10.3Consumer prices, % y/y 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.7Current account, % of GDP -2.0 -2.6 -1.9 -1.6 -1.8General government budget balance, % of GDP -7.1 -5.2 -4.6 -3.8 -4.1Gross public debt, % of GDP 82.3 86.0 90.3 93.4 95.0

FX�forecasts

42

Annex tables


Rates�forecasts

43

Annex tables


The�Euro�area compared to�USA,�Japan,�China�

44

Annex tables


Euro�area USA Japan China

Population 2011 m 331.9 311.6 126.2 1,347.4Nominal �GDP 2011 bn�€ 9,425.3 10,842.1 4,233.9 5,247.6��in�%�of�Eurozone�GDP 2011 % 100.0 115.0 44.9 55.7Nominal �GDP�per�capita 2011 €1,000 28.4 34.8 33.6 3.9��in�%�of�GDP�Eurozone�per�capita 2011 % 100.0 122.5 118.2 13.7Nominal �GDP�per�capita�(PPP) 2011 €1,000 24.3 34.8 25.0 6.0��in�%�of�GDP�Eurozone�per�capita 2011 % 100.0 143.2 102.8 24.8Share�in�WorldͲGDP�(nominal) 2011 % 18.7 21.6 8.4 10.5Share�in�WorldͲGDP�(PPP) 2011 % 14.2 19.1 5.6 14.3Share�in�the�real �GDP��Private�consumption 2011 % 56.4 70.9 59.1 35.4��Gross�fixed�capital �formation 2011 % 19.0 12.8 19.5 44.8��Public�comsumption 2011 % 21.4 19.0 19.6 12.8��Net�exports 2011 % Ͳ0.1 Ͳ3.1 2.6 5.6Shares �in�gross�value�added��Agriculture 2011 % 1.7 *�1,2 *�1,2 10.1��Industry�(including�construction�industry) 2011 % 25.5 *�20,0 *�28,1 46.8��Services 2011 % 72.8 *�78,8 *�70,7 43.1Real �GDP 2007�to�2011 %�y/y,�p.a. 0.5 0.5 Ͳ0.1 10.7Consumer�prices 2008�to�2011 %�y/y,�p.a. 2.0 2.2 Ͳ0.2 3.7Unemployment�rate 2009�to�2011 % 9.0 7.7 4.5 4.1Government�budget�balance 2011 %�of�GDP Ͳ4.1 Ͳ10.1 Ͳ9.8 Ͳ1.2Government�debt 2011 %�of�GDP 88.0 102.9 229.6 25.8Current�account�balance 2011 %�of�GDP 0.2 Ͳ3.1 2.1 2.8Share�of�global �exports � 2011 % 13.6 8.3 4.6 10.7Share�of�global �imports � 2011 % 13.3 12.4 4.6 9.5

*�Data �for�2010

GDP:�Total,�per�capita and�composition

45

Annex tables


Nominal�GDP

Share�in�Eurozone�

GDPPopulation

��1,000�€� PPP�1) Agriculture Industry ServicesPrivate�

consumpͲ��tion

Public�consumpͲ�

tion

Gross�fixed�capital�

formationExport Import

bn�€ �%� mGermany 2,593 27.5 81.8 31.7 111 1.0 30.1 68.9 55.5 19.0 17.8 50.2 43.8France 1,995 21.2 65.1 30.7 99 1.8 18.7 79.5 56.8 24.7 19.2 27.3 29.7Italy 1,580 16.8 60.6 26.1 94 2.0 24.6 73.4 57.8 21.0 18.7 28.5 28.3Spain 1,063 11.3 46.0 23.0 92 2.6 28.3 69.1 59.4 22.6 28.3 34.8 36.2Netherlands 602 6.4 16.6 36.1 121 1.8 24.8 73.4 46.0 27.0 17.9 79.8 70.4Belgium 370 3.9 11.0 33.6 109 0.6 22.9 76.5 50.5 24.0 20.4 82.8 80.6Austria 301 3.2 8.4 35.8 119 1.6 29.8 68.6 52.2 18.1 21.2 59.4 54.2Greece 209 2.2 11.3 18.4 76 3.1 18.0 78.9 72.1 18.8 13.1 22.0 29.1Finland 189 2.0 5.4 35.2 107 2.9 27.8 69.3 50.2 19.4 19.3 47.6 42.4Portugal 171 1.8 10.6 16.2 71 2.1 23.3 74.6 65.5 20.4 18.8 39.2 44.1Ireland 159 1.7 4.5 34.8 118 1.7 31.3 67.0 50.5 15.8 10.3 104.5 80.6Slovakia 69 0.7 5.4 12.8 68 3.2 41.9 54.9 54.3 16.7 24.0 91.7 84.9Luxembourg 43 0.5 0.5 0.1 254 Ͳ Ͳ Ͳ 33.8 17.2 22.9 182.0 160.1Slovenia 36 0.4 2.1 17.6 78 2.5 29.7 67.8 52.6 19.0 19.2 77.7 75.1Cyprus 18 0.2 0.8 21.2 85 2.4 17.1 80.5 68.3 19.7 17.4 45.5 50.4Estonia 16 0.2 1.3 11.9 62 3.6 30.2 66.2 57.9 18.2 24.7 95.2 89.5Malta 6 0.1 0.4 15.7 77 1.8 18.1 80.1 64.5 19.6 13.4 100.1 96.0

Eurozone 9,421 100.0 332.0 28.4 100 1.7 25.5 72.8 55.8 21.3 18.9 42.9 40.61)�Euro�area �=�100�

%

GDP�per�capita Shares�in�gross�value�added Shares�in�the�real�GDP

index %

Government�budget�balance,�%�of�GDP

46

Source:�Nordea�Markets,�Reuters�Ecowin,�IMF

Annex tables

1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 average�2003/07

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 average�2008/12

2013 2014

Germany Ͳ1.6 Ͳ4.2 Ͳ3.8 Ͳ3.3 Ͳ1.7 0.2 Ͳ2.5 Ͳ0.1 Ͳ3.1 Ͳ4.1 Ͳ0.8 0.2 Ͳ1.6 Ͳ0.2 0.0

France Ͳ1.8 Ͳ4.1 Ͳ3.6 Ͳ3.0 Ͳ2.4 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ3.3 Ͳ7.6 Ͳ7.1 Ͳ5.2 Ͳ4.6 Ͳ5.6 Ͳ3.8 Ͳ4.1

Italy Ͳ2.0 Ͳ3.6 Ͳ3.6 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ3.4 Ͳ1.6 Ͳ3.3 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ5.4 Ͳ4.3 Ͳ3.8 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ3.8 Ͳ2.0 Ͳ1.9

Spain Ͳ1.2 Ͳ0.4 Ͳ0.1 1.3 2.4 1.9 1.0 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ11.2 Ͳ9.7 Ͳ9.4 Ͳ10.2 Ͳ9.0 Ͳ6.7 Ͳ7.2

Netherlands 0.4 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ1.8 Ͳ0.3 0.5 0.2 Ͳ0.9 0.5 Ͳ5.6 Ͳ5.0 Ͳ4.4 Ͳ4.0 Ͳ3.7 Ͳ3.5 Ͳ3.5

Belgium Ͳ0.7 Ͳ0.2 Ͳ0.2 Ͳ2.6 0.3 Ͳ0.1 Ͳ0.6 Ͳ1.1 Ͳ5.6 Ͳ3.8 Ͳ3.7 Ͳ3.9 Ͳ3.6 Ͳ3.1 Ͳ3.4

Austria Ͳ2.4 Ͳ1.7 Ͳ4.6 Ͳ1.8 Ͳ1.7 Ͳ1.0 Ͳ2.1 Ͳ1.0 Ͳ4.1 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ2.5 Ͳ3.0 Ͳ3.0 Ͳ2.5 Ͳ1.8

Greece Ͳ3.1 Ͳ5.7 Ͳ7.4 Ͳ5.6 Ͳ6.0 Ͳ6.8 Ͳ6.3 Ͳ9.9 Ͳ15.6 Ͳ10.8 Ͳ9.5 Ͳ10.3 Ͳ11.2 Ͳ8.5 Ͳ7.3

Finland 1.7 2.5 2.3 2.7 4.1 5.3 3.4 4.3 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ1.1 Ͳ1.9 Ͳ0.8 Ͳ1.7 Ͳ1.4

Portugal Ͳ3.1 Ͳ3.7 Ͳ4.0 Ͳ6.5 Ͳ4.6 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ4.4 Ͳ3.7 Ͳ10.2 Ͳ9.8 Ͳ4.4 Ͳ5.0 Ͳ6.6 Ͳ4.9 Ͳ2.9

Ireland 2.5 0.4 1.4 1.7 2.9 0.1 1.3 Ͳ7.4 Ͳ13.9 Ͳ30.9 Ͳ13.3 Ͳ7.7 Ͳ14.6 Ͳ7.3 Ͳ4.2

Slovakia Ͳ7.4 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ2.4 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ1.8 Ͳ2.6 Ͳ2.1 Ͳ8.0 Ͳ7.7 Ͳ4.9 Ͳ4.8 Ͳ5.5 Ͳ3.3 Ͳ3.4

Luxembourg 3.4 0.5 Ͳ1.1 0.0 1.4 3.7 0.9 3.2 Ͳ0.8 Ͳ0.8 Ͳ0.3 Ͳ1.5 Ͳ0.1 Ͳ0.9 Ͳ1.3

Slovenia Ͳ3.0 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ2.3 Ͳ1.5 Ͳ1.4 0.0 Ͳ1.6 Ͳ1.9 Ͳ6.0 Ͳ5.7 Ͳ6.4 Ͳ4.4 Ͳ4.9 Ͳ5.1 Ͳ4.7

Cyprus Ͳ4.3 Ͳ6.6 Ͳ4.1 Ͳ2.4 Ͳ1.2 3.5 Ͳ2.2 0.9 Ͳ6.1 Ͳ5.3 Ͳ6.3 Ͳ5.5 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ3.8

Estonia Ͳ3.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.0 Ͳ2.9 Ͳ2.0 0.2 1.2 Ͳ0.5 Ͳ0.8 Ͳ0.3 0.2

Malta Ͳ6.9 Ͳ9.0 Ͳ4.6 Ͳ2.9 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ2.3 Ͳ4.3 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ3.8 Ͳ3.6 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ2.6 Ͳ3.4 Ͳ2.9 Ͳ2.5

Euro�area Ͳ1.5 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ2.9 Ͳ2.5 Ͳ1.4 Ͳ0.7 Ͳ2.1 Ͳ2.1 Ͳ6.3 Ͳ6.2 Ͳ4.2 Ͳ3.7 Ͳ4.5 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ2.7

USA #N/A Ͳ4.9 Ͳ4.4 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ2.0 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ3.5 Ͳ6.7 Ͳ13.3 Ͳ11.2 Ͳ10.1 Ͳ8.7 Ͳ10.0 Ͳ7.3 Ͳ5.6

UK 0.9 Ͳ3.4 Ͳ3.5 Ͳ3.4 Ͳ2.7 Ͳ2.8 Ͳ3.2 Ͳ5.0 Ͳ11.4 Ͳ10.2 Ͳ7.8 Ͳ6.3 Ͳ8.1 Ͳ7.4 Ͳ6.0

Japan Ͳ7.8 Ͳ7.8 Ͳ5.9 Ͳ4.8 Ͳ3.7 Ͳ2.1 Ͳ4.9 Ͳ4.1 Ͳ10.4 Ͳ9.4 Ͳ9.8 Ͳ10.0 Ͳ8.7 Ͳ9.1 Ͳ7.2

Government�debt,�%�of�GDP

47

Source:�Nordea�Markets,�Reuters�Ecowin,�IMF

1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 average�2003/07

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 average�2008/12

2013E 2014E

Germany 61.3 64.4 66.2 68.5 68.0 65.2 66.5 66.8 74.5 82.5 80.4 81.9 77.2 80.7 78.3

France 58.9 63.2 65.0 66.7 64.0 64.2 64.6 68.2 79.2 82.3 86.0 90.3 81.2 93.4 95.0

Italy 113.0 103.9 103.4 105.7 106.3 103.3 104.5 106.1 116.4 119.2 120.7 127.1 117.9 128.1 127.1

Spain 62.4 48.8 46.3 43.2 39.7 36.3 42.8 40.2 53.9 61.5 69.3 88.4 62.6 95.8 101.0

Netherlands 61.1 52.0 52.4 51.8 47.4 45.3 49.8 58.5 60.8 63.1 65.5 70.8 63.7 73.8 75.0

Belgium 113.6 98.4 94.0 92.0 88.0 84.0 91.3 89.2 95.7 95.5 97.8 99.8 95.6 100.8 101.1

Austria 66.8 65.3 64.7 64.2 62.3 60.2 63.3 63.8 69.2 72.0 72.4 74.3 70.3 75.2 74.5

Greece 94.0 97.4 98.9 101.2 107.5 107.2 102.4 112.9 129.7 148.3 170.6 161.6 144.6 175.6 175.2

Finland 45.7 44.5 44.4 41.7 39.6 35.2 41.1 33.9 43.5 48.6 49.0 53.4 45.7 56.4 57.6

Portugal 51.4 59.4 61.9 67.7 69.4 68.4 65.4 71.7 83.2 93.5 108.0 120.6 95.4 123.9 124.7

Ireland 47.0 30.7 29.5 27.3 24.6 25.0 27.4 44.5 64.9 92.2 106.4 117.2 85.0 122.2 120.1

Slovakia 47.8 42.4 41.5 34.2 30.5 29.6 35.6 27.9 35.6 41.0 43.3 52.4 40.0 55.1 57.1

Luxembourg 6.4 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.7 6.7 6.4 14.4 15.3 19.2 18.3 20.5 17.6 22.2 24.1

Slovenia 24.1 27.2 27.3 26.7 26.4 23.1 26.2 22.0 35.0 38.6 46.9 53.7 39.2 59.5 63.4

Cyprus 59.3 69.7 70.9 69.4 64.7 58.8 66.7 48.9 58.5 61.3 71.1 86.5 65.3 93.1 97.0

Estonia 6.5 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.7 4.5 7.2 6.7 6.1 10.5 7.0 11.8 11.3

Malta 55.2 66.0 69.8 68.0 62.5 60.7 65.4 60.9 66.3 67.4 70.4 73.1 67.6 73.8 73.6

Euro�area 71.6 69.2 69.6 70.3 68.7 66.4 68.9 70.2 80.0 85.6 88.1 93.1 83.4 95.1 95.2

USA 60.8 60.4 68.3 67.9 66.6 67.2 66.1 76.1 89.7 98.6 102.9 107.2 94.9 111.7 113.8

UK 43.6 39.1 41.0 42.2 43.3 44.2 42.0 52.3 67.8 79.4 85.2 89.8 74.9 95.4 97.9

Japan 131.9 169.6 180.7 186.4 186.0 183.0 181.1 191.8 210.2 215.3 229.6 236.6 216.7 245.0 246.2

Annex tables

Global�Competitiveness�Index�Ͳ Ranking�(2012/2013)

48

Annex tables

Source:�Nordea�Markets�and�World�Economic�Forum

1.�Institutions

2.�InfraͲ��structure

3.�MacroͲ��economic�

environment

4.�Health�and�primary�education

5.�Higher�education�and�training

6.�Goods�market�

efficiency

7.�Labor�market�

efficiency

8.�Financial�market�

development

9.�TechnoͲ��logical�

readiness

10.�Market�size

11.�Business�sophistication

12.�Innovation

Switzerland 1 5 5 8 8 3 7 1 9 6 39 2 1Germany 6 16 3 30 22 5 21 53 32 15 5 3 7France 21 32 4 68 21 27 46 66 27 14 8 21 17Italy 42 97 28 102 25 45 65 127 111 40 10 28 36Spain 36 48 10 104 36 29 55 108 82 26 14 32 35Netherlands 5 7 7 41 5 6 6 17 20 9 20 4 9Belgium 17 27 21 66 2 4 15 50 31 22 27 12 11Austria 16 25 15 33 20 18 22 32 34 17 36 6 13Greece 96 111 43 144 41 43 108 133 132 43 46 85 87Finland 3 3 23 24 1 1 18 15 4 10 54 7 2Portugal 49 46 24 116 30 30 61 123 99 28 48 54 31Ireland 27 19 25 131 12 20 9 16 108 12 56 18 21Slovakia 71 104 56 54 42 54 54 86 47 45 59 61 89Luxembourg 22 9 12 12 28 44 4 37 12 2 92 23 18Slovenia 56 58 35 50 24 23 49 91 128 34 78 53 32Cyprus 58 40 39 117 9 32 33 44 38 37 106 52 53Estonia 34 30 41 20 27 25 31 10 39 25 96 51 30Malta 47 37 34 71 19 35 34 92 15 21 125 43 48USA 7 41 14 111 34 8 23 6 16 11 1 10 6UK 8 13 6 110 17 16 17 5 13 7 6 8 10Japan 10 22 11 124 10 21 20 20 36 16 4 1 5

1�=�best�conditions;�144�=�worst�conditions�below�144�surveyed�countries�of�the�World�Economic�Forum

Overall�Ranking

Basis�requirements Efficiency�enhancers Innovation�and�sophistication�factors

Ease�of�Doing�Business�Index�(2013)

49

Annex tables

Source:�Nordea�Markets�and�World�Bank

Starting�a�business

Dealing�with�construction�permits

Getting�electricity

Registering�property

Getting��credit

Protecting�investors

Paying��taxes

Trading�across�borders

Enforcing�contracts

Resolving�insolvency

Germany 20�(19) 106 14 2 81 23 100 72 13 5 19France 34�(29) 27 52 42 146 53 82 53 27 8 43Italy 73�(87) 84 103 107 39 104 49 131 55 160 31Spain 44�(44) 136 38 70 57 53 100 34 39 64 20Netherlands 31�(31) 67 89 67 49 53 117 29 12 32 6Belgium 33�(28) 44 57 82 176 70 19 75 29 18 7Austria 29�(32) 134 75 24 34 23 100 77 26 7 12Greece 78�(100) 146 31 59 150 83 117 56 62 87 50Finland 11�(11) 49 34 21 24 40 70 23 6 9 5Portugal 30�(30) 31 78 35 30 104 49 77 17 22 23Ireland 15�(10) 10 106 95 53 12 6 6 28 63 9Slovakia 46�(48) 83 46 100 8 23 117 100 98 69 38Luxembourg 56�(50) 93 33 63 134 159 128 14 32 1 52Slovenia 35�(37) 30 61 31 83 104 17 63 57 56 42Cyprus 36�(40) 37 80 98 99 53 32 31 18 108 25Estonia 21�(24) 47 35 53 14 40 70 50 7 31 72Malta 102�(Ͳ) 150 167 111 80 176 70 27 34 121 67USA 4�(4) 13 17 19 25 4 6 69 22 6 16UK 7�(7) 19 20 62 73 1 10 16 14 21 8Japan 24�(20) 114 72 27 64 23 19 127 19 35 1

1�=�best�conditions;�185�=�worst�conditions�among�185�countries�surveyed�by�the�World�BankReform�improves�conditions�for�doing�businessReform�worsens�conditions�for�doing�business

Overall�Ranking�2013�

(2012)

c�a�t�e�g�o�r�i�e�s�

Thank�you!

Dr.�Holger�SandteChief European�Analyst�

Global�Research+45�3333�1191

[email protected]

Nordea Markets�is�the�name�of�the�Markets�departments�of�Nordea Bank�Norge ASA,�Nordea Bank�AB�(publ),�Nordea Bank�Finland�Plc and�NordeaBank�Danmark A/S.

The�information�provided�herein�is�intended�for�background�information�only�and�for�the�sole�use�of�the�intended�recipient.�The�views�and�other�information�provided�herein�are�the�current�views�of�Nordea Markets�as�of�the�date�of�this�document�and�are�subject�to�change�without�notice.�This�notice�is�not�an�exhaustive�description�of�the�described�product�or�the�risks�related�to�it,�and�it�should�not�be�relied�on�as�such,�nor�is�it�a�substitute�for�the�judgement�of�the�recipient.

The�information�provided�herein�is�not�intended�to�constitute�and�does�not�constitute�investment�advice�nor�is�the�information�intended�as�an�offer�or�solicitation�for�the�purchase�or�sale�of�any�financial�instrument.�The�information�contained�herein�has�no�regard�to�the�specific�investment�objectives,�the�financial�situation�or�particular�needs�of�any�particular�recipient.�Relevant�and�specific�professional�advice�should�always�be�obtained�before�making�any�investment�or�credit�decision.�It�is�important�to�note�that�past�performance�is�not�indicative�of�future�results.�

Nordea Markets�is�not�and�does�not�purport�to�be�an�adviser�as�to�legal,�taxation,�accounting�or�regulatory�matters�in�any�jurisdiction.

This�document�may�not�be�reproduced,�distributed�or�published�for�any�purpose�without�the�prior�written�consent�from�Nordea Markets.

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Economy & Finance

Europ eco outlook 2 may 2013 hs_financelab