VALEDICTORY BY

MOHAN GURUSWAMY

NATIONAL CONFERENCE 

CENTRAL ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA:HISTORICAL, ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND

CULTURAL RELATIONS.

Will India be the new China?

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China.

India.

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How the world stacks up in 2016.

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The brave new world to come!

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The coming economic order.

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Where is the World’s growth coming from?

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India’s late surge!

Basic difference in Economic Structures.

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Basic differences manifested in Export Profiles.

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The importance of being China.

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China’s phenomenal rise as a world trader.

Exports are critical to China’s economy, accounting for more than a quarter of economic activity, compared with a little more than a tenth in the United States.

To maintain overall growth rates, China has hoped to keep exports growing at about 10 percent per year, and for much of this year it has succeeded.

But the US has declared its intention to close its CAD by 2020.

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Is the Chinese economy is losing steam?

Oil is now the single most important driver of world economics, politics and technology.

The rise in importance was due to the invention of the

internal combustion engine, huge expansion of private and public transportation and the rise in commercial aviation.

And the importance of petroleum to industrial organic

chemistry, particularly the synthesis of plastics, fertilizers, solvents, adhesives and pesticides.

Oil is now the basis of about half the World GDP of over $85 trillion.

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Changing China!

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China & India population pyramids.

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Trade = F(income, policy, cultural affinity, transport costs)

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About 15 000–10 000 years before present (ybp), when agriculture developed in the Fertile Crescent region that extended from Israel through Northern Syria to Western Iran, there was an eastward wave of human migration (Renfrew 1989; Cavalli-Sforza et al. 1994). It has been postulated that this wave brought the Dravidian language into India (Renfrew 1989).

Subsequently, the Indo-European (Aryan) language was introduced into India from the Iranian plateau approximately 4000–3000 ybp, where this language was probably brought by pastoral nomads from Central Asia (Renfrew 1989).

Therefore, linguistic evidence suggests that West Asia and Central Asia were two major geographical sources contributing to the Indian gene pool.

The results revealed that a substantial part of today’s North Indian paternal gene pool was contributed by Central Asian lineages who are Indo-European speakers, suggesting that extant Indian caste groups are primarily the descendants of Indo-European migrants.

Hum aapke hain kaun?

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Dispersal of Early Indo-European dialects.

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Ghar aaya mera pardesi!

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Mera Bharat Mahan.

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Isolated by Geography as much by Politics.

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China’s natural neighbors.

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Kis path sey jaoon main? Asmanjas hai wo bhola bhala!

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GDP’s of the five Stans.

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Wealth in the five Stans.

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India’s trade with Central Asia.

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Kazakhstan Exports.

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Kazakhstan’s Trading Partners.

India-Kazakhstan Trade.

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India’s Line of Credits.

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Where we put our money!

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Waning interest in Central Asia?

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Distribution of Indian Aid in Central Asia.

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South Asia: An expensive place to do business!

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Transport costs have significant impacts on the structure of economic activities as well as on international trade.

Empirical evidence underlines that raising transport costs by 10% reduces trade volumes by more than 20% and that the general quality of transport infrastructure can account for half of the variation in transport costs.

In a competitive environment where transportation is a service that can be bided on, transport costs are influenced by the respective rates of transport companies, the portion of the transport costs charged to users.

India’s inherent un-competitiveness.

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India enjoys close ethnic, historical, cultural, traditional and political relationships with the Central Asian nations.

India is now geographically isolated from Central Asia.

India has few relatively economic linkages with Central Asia.

Central Asia presents a very small economic opportunity for India.

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Thank you!

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