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Good report about Brazil in 2010.
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Brazil: Sustainable
GrowthMin. Guido Mantega
April 2010
Source: The EconomistProduced by: Ministry of Finance
2
* The Economist forecast** Government forecast
Brazil: one of the fastest growing economies in 2010GDP growth forecast – selected countries – in % of GDP
3
New social and economic paradigms
• Emphasis on a more robust growth
• Employment generation
• Social inclusion and income distribution
• Investment enhancement
• Government encourages and promotes growth
• Efficient stimulus programs
4
Source: CAGED /MTEProduced by: Ministry of Finance
* Government forecast of 1.8 million for 2010, of which 657,259 comprised within the accumulated year period up to Mar-2010
Robust employment generation and more formal jobsNet employment generation – in thousands of workers
Source: PME/IBGEProduced by: Ministry of Finance
2010: the smallest unemployment rate in a time seriesUnemployment rate – in % of economically active population
Source: MDS, MTE and CPS/FGVProduced by: Ministry of Finance
New middle class and Brazilian unificationSocial class distribution - in % of population
Source: Kantar World PanelProduced by: Ministry of Finance
Social classes diversify consumption% change in the purchased value (food, beverages, hygiene and cleaning)* Average monthly household income is specified below
* Class D/E: from R$ 0 to R$ 1,115Class C: from R$ 1,115 to R$ 4,807Class A/B: from R$ 4,807 and on
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Highest employment rate in the worldNet employment generation forecast for Q2 2010*
Source: Manpower Consulting Produced by: Ministry of Finance
Gap within companies that expect job raising (43%) as opposed to the ones which expect a reduction (5%) in Q2 2010 (% between Q1:2010 and Q4:2009)
* Expected employment generation from Manpower Consulting research for the Q2 2010 based on interviews with 850 companies in Brazil
Purchasing power of minimum wageToday’s minimum wage buys more products – in numbers of staple food baskets
Source: DIEESEProduced by: Ministry of Finance
9
10
Fontes: IDVProduced by: Ministry of Finance
Dinamycs of Brazilian domestic demandRetail sales – selected countries - % change from 2008 to 2009
Source: IBGEProduced by: Ministry of Finance
11
Retail Sales - PMC% change from preceding every 12-month period
* Including automobiles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, andconstruction materials
12
Government action is essential
• Infrastructure stimulus: PAC
• PAC is a strategic investment program with management and infrastructure planned actions
• Industrial sector policy
• Income distribution
• Acting and efficient State-owned companies (BNDES, BB, CAIXA, BNB, Petrobras)
13
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Investment enhancement
Source: IBGEProduced by: Ministry of Finance
% change from preceding year
* Ministry of Finance Forecasts
14
14
Federal Government and State-Owned CompaniesInvestment
Source: Ministry of FinanceProduced by: Ministry of Finance
Cash basis - % of GDP
* Ministry of Finance Forecasts
15
15
Industry investment volume
Source: BNDESProduced by: Ministry of Finance
Industry resource distribution - realized and planned by sector of activity
16
Decade of infrastructure to come
Source: Exame Infrastructure Yearbook 2009-2010Produced by: Ministry of Finance
Investments in R$ billions
Source: Abecip and CAIXAProduced by: Ministry of Finance
17
Construction growth in BrazilAverage number of contracts by presidential terms
18
2010: Sustainable and quality growth
• Growth is sustainable because it doesn’t create macroeconomic imbalances
• Inflation under control – efficient inflation targeting regime
• Robust fiscal rules – primary surplus target of 3.3 % of GDP in 2010 and continuous reduction in net public debt
• Low external vulnerability
Fontes: IBGE and Brazilian Central Bank Produced by: Ministry of Finance
Evolution of inflation index, target and expectations%
% change from every 12-month period
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* Market Forecasts FOCUS Report from April 9th, 2010
2020
Decomposition of Monthly Inflation (% change)
Source: IBGE. Elaborated by: MF/SPE
-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Remaining itens Fuel (ethanol and gasolines)
Tranport (tickets and fares) Food (in house)
21
Sustainable PAC: reduction of public debtFiscal results – primary surplus and nominal deficit/surplus - in % of GDP
Source: Brazilian Central Bank and The EconomistProduced by: Ministry of Finance
* Ministry of Finance Forecasts
**
22
(5,0)
-
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
jan/
03ab
r/03
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Net primary revenuePrimary expenditureGDP
Nominal Growth rate (% YOY)
23
Sustainable nominal deficit: reduction of public debtNominal deficit - in % of GDP
Source: The EconomistProduced by: Ministry of Finance
* Ministry of Finance Forecasts in February, 2010 ** G-20 nominal deficit average refers to Apr 15th, 2010 ed.
24
Sustainable PAC: reduction in public debtPublic Sector Net Public Debt - in % of GDP
Source: Brazilian Central BankProduced by: Ministry of Finance
* Ministry of Finance Forecasts in February, 2010
25
IIF Ranking on Investors Relation and Data Transparency
38 3735 34 34 33 32 31 30 29
24
21 21 2018
16 16
12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9
6 64 4 3 3 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Braz
ilSo
uth
Kore
aPh
ilippi
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Indo
nesia
Mex
ico
Turk
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uth
Afric
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Pola
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Thai
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Bulg
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Beliz
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Mor
occo
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26
Deficit in Current Account does not bind growth, nor increaseexternal vulnerabilityCurrent Account – in US$ billions and % do PIB
Source: Brazilian Central BankProduced by: Ministry of Finance
* Government Forecasts
26
27
Lower external vulnerabilityInternational reserves and external debt - in % of GDP and index
Source: Brazilian Central BankProduced by: Ministry of Finance
28
From supporting to leading country
• Brazil is respected and highly regarded.
• Change: from debtor to creditor and new protagonist position.
• The myth that “Brazil is a second-class country” has fallen apart.
• Brazil could became one of the most dynamic countries in this decade.