Biodiversity Loss in Thailand

Biodiversity in Thailand

BIODIVERSITY LOSS IN THAILANDFROM GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Yongyut TrisuratFaculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University

Bangkok, ThailandIn Collaboration With

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)

Biodiversity in ThailandBiodiversity loss →Leveling out = homogenization process

“Fishing down the foodweb(Pauly, 2001)”

Hig

h ab

unda

nce

Low

abu

ndan

ce

Biodiversity in ThailandHuman development (HDI) & Biodiversity (NCI)


Time

Bio

dive

rsity

Habitat Destruction

Exotic Species

exploitation of land use

Pollution

FragmentationClimatic changes

Sustainable managementRegeneration

Measures ofConservation

Protectedareas

100%

0%

Causes of Biodiversity Loss

1. Species-richness in proportion to surface area by country, biogeographical region2. Species-richness by 10 main EUNIS habitat types3. Tree species composition in forests4. Changes in species composition in wetlands5. Endemic species richness in proportion to surface area by biogeographical region6. Trends ofd species groups (carnivores, raptors, geese, species of economic interest)7. Trends of selection of representative species associated with different ecosystems8. Number of threatened taxa occuring at different geographical levels9. Number of globally threatened species endemic to Europe10. Percentage of globally threatened species per biogeographical region11. Percentage of European threatened species per biogeographical region12. Threatened forest species13. Forest genetic resources14. Wild relatives of cultivated plants15. Crops and breed genetic diversity16. Threats in and around wetland sites17. Landscape-level spatial pattern of forest cover18. Diversity of linear features and doiversity of crops in farmlands19. Percentage of introduced species that have become invasive per biogeographical region20. Spread of invasive selected species over time21. Introduces tree species22. Introduces species in fresh surface waters 23. Introduces species in marine and coastal waters24. Proportion of globally threatend species 25. Proportion of globally threatened fauna species protected by European instruments (EC Directives and Bern Convention)26. Proportion of known species present in Europe protected by European instruments27. Proportion of species only present in Europe protected by European instruments28. Progress in implementation of action plans for globally threatened species29. Funds spent through LIFE Nature projects for species and habitats30. Total area of wetlands (and other ecosystems types) reclaimed by country, biogeographic region, Europe31. Cumulated area of sites over time under international conventions and initiatives 32. Cumulated area of sites proposed over time under EU Directives33. Proportion of sites under EU Directives already protected under national instruments34. Cumulated area of national designated areas over time in Pan-Europe35. Species diversity in designated areas36. Bird species distributions and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) coverage37. Range of Species of European Interest or Threatened Species present in designated areas38. Trends of selected species population within and outside designated areas39. Percentage (in surface area) of Annex I habitat-type included in potential Sites of Community Interest (pSCIs)40. Change (in surface area) of Annex I habitat-type included in pSCIs41. Range of Habitats of European Interest present in designated areas42. Percentage of main activities reported in pSCIs43. Agricultural land in designated areas44. Land cover changes in the surroundings of designated areas45. Deadwood46. Number of individuals per main fauna species group killed on roads per length per year47. Number of fauna passages per infrastructure length unit48. Financial investment for fauna passages

ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY, GOODS AND SERVICES

• Marine trophic index • Connectivity/fragmentation of

ecosystems • Water quality in aquatic ecosystems • •

SUSTAINABLE USE • Area of ecosystems under

sustainable management Forest Agriculture Fishery Aquaculture

• Ecological footprint •

STATUS AND TRENDS OF COMPONENTS OF BIOVERSITY

• Trends in extent of selected biomes, ecosystems, habitats

• Coverage of protected areas • Trends in abundance and

distribution of selected species • Change in status of threatened

and/or protected species • Trends in genetic diversity of

domesticated animals, cultivated plants, fish species of major socioeconomic importance

THREATS TO BIODIVERSITY • Nitrogen deposition • Numbers and costs of invasive

alien species • Impact of climate change • •

Biodiversity

Red List Index

Species Assemblage Trend Index

Pressure indexNatural Capital Index

Aggregation: composite indicators for overview

Living Planet Index

Biodiversity Intactness Index

MSA= Mean abundance of original species relative to pristine (original stage)

Biodiversity Indices


Design of the model (P-S-R)

Input:

systemdescribers

pressures

Env. conditions

State / trendBiodiversity

Dose-response

model

Ecosystemfunctions / poverty

Policy Actions

Biodiversity ( MSA)

100%

0%

Biodiversity Loss at Global Level (GLOBIO 3 Model)

Global Biodiversity Model (GLOBIO 3)

Biodiversity loss per biome - World

Polar, tundradesert, boreal

Temperate and tropicalgrasslands& forests


Existing Forest Cover by Region in Thailand, 1961-2000

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

1961

1976

1982

1988

1991

1995

2000

Year

% o

f tot

al c

ount

ry

area

NorthEastNortheastCentralSouthTotal

Biodiversity in ThailandKey Policy Questions?

What is the current situation of biodiversityin each ecosystem?What is the future situation (2050)?What are the main pressure factors?What needs to be done to improve the model?

Implications of GLOBIO 3 to National Level

Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework

GLC 2000 IMAGE GLOBIO 2

Land use

Nitrogen Climate Roads/Rails

Land-useeffect

Nitrogeneffect

Climateeffect

patch sizeeffect

Infrastructureeffect

MSA

Input data Pressure indicators

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

prim

ary

fore

st

sele

ctiv

elo

ggin

g

seco

ndar

yfo

rest

agro

fore

stry

plan

tatio

ns

crop

land

past

ure

mea

n sp

ecie

s ab

unda

nce

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

primary pasture cropland

mea

n sp

ecie

s ab

unda

nce

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

0 5 10 15 20

N g.m-2

spec

ies

rich

nes

ratio

Land use change

climateNitrogen deposition

forests grasslands

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0

Temperature change (degrees)

mea

n ar

ea re

duct

ion

grasslandsgrasslandsforests

forests

tundratundra

infrastructurePatch size dependence

0102030405060708090

100

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

minimum area requirement

perc

enta

ge o

f spe

cies

birdsmammals

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

distance to roads

mea

n sp

ecie

s ab

unda

nce

grasslands, deserts, wetlandsboreal and temperate foreststropical forests and tundra

Fragmentation and Infrastructure


State of the art knowledge140 publications, Species richness, Abundances

Africa: 24; Asia: 36; Europe: 21; North America: 23; South America: 27; Oceania: 7

62 tropical forests; 31 other forests; 17 grasslands; 9 shrublands; 5 deserts

Ca. 5700 species: 2100 plant species, 1700 insects, 1300 birds, 150 other vertebrates

Land-use intensities

- Unaltered forest

- Low impact logging

- Plantation forest

- Intensive grazing

- Intensive agriculture

0.7

0.4

0.10.1

1.0

Associated MSA

- Unused = 1.0

- Lightly used = 0.7

- Planted = 0.4

- High ext. inputs = 0.1(MSA = mean species abundance)

Press

- Land Use

- Agriculture

- Infrastructure

- Fragmentation

- Fires

0.4

0.10.1

1.0

0.7

0.4

Total NCI = 0.1 x 0.7 x 0.4….


0.1Build-up areasArtificial surfaces0.1Intensive agriculture

0.3Low input agricultureCultivated and managed areas

0.5AgroforestryMosaic: cropland/forest0.1Man-made pasture0.7Livestock grazing1.0

Primary grassland and shrublandShrubs and grassland

0.2Forest plantation0.5Secondary forest0.7

Slightly disturbed or managed forest

1.0Primary vegetationForest

1.0Deserts and alpine forestBare areas1.0Snow or iceSnow and ice

MSALUSub-classGLC 2000 Class (FAO/UNEP)

Land Use (Biggs, 2005)


-0.034Tropical forest-0.039Tropical woodland-0.093Savannah

0.1740.129Scrubland-0.036Hot desert

0.1930.098Grassland and steppe0.1390.052Warm mixed forest0.1090.100Temperate deciduous forest0.1010.045Temperate mixed forest0.0800.168Cool conifer forest0.0790.043Boreal forest0.0510.284Wooded tundra0.0700.154Tundra0.0500.023Ice

Slope (◦C-1)ImageBiome

MSACC = 1 – Slope * ΔTemperature

Climate Change (EUROMOVE – Bakkenes et al, 2006)


Shrubs and grasslandMSAN = 0.8 - 0.08 In (NE)Grassland

ForestMSAN = 0.8 - 0.14 In (NE)Boreal coniferous forest

Snow and iceMSAN = 0.9 - 0.005 NE

Arctic-alpine ecosystem

GCL 200 classesEquationEcosystem

N deposition (Bobbink, 2004; Bouwman et al., 2004)

N depositionexceeding the critical load levelapplies only to natural land not to cropland

Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model FrameworkInfrastructure (UNEP, 2001: 300 papers)

>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Ice and snow>10.03.0-10.01.0-3.00.0-1.0Arctic tundra>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Wetland>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5

Desert and semi desert

>10.03.0-10.01.0-3.00.0-1.0Tropical forest>3.00.9-3.00.3-0.90.0-0.3

Temperate deciduous forest

>3.00.9-3.00.3-0.90.0-0.3Boreal forest>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Grassland>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Cropland

No impact (MSAI = 1.00)

Low impact (MSAI = 0.90)

Medium impact (MSAI = 0.75)

High impact (MSAI = 0.50)Vegetation cover

Zone (0.0-0.5 km) along infrastructure

Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model FrameworkFragmentation (Bouwan et al.,

2002; Woodroffe and Ginsberg, 1998)

1.00>100000.951000-100000.85100-10000.7510-1000.551-10MSAFArea (km2)

Smaller area for plant species

Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3: Sources of Data

Potential veg.:BIOME’s as historical range dataLand use: Forest type 2000 (DNP) reclassified to

Global Land Cover (GLC 2000)Patch size: Forestry type map & road networkInfrastrucure: Road network (OEPP)

Climate change: Mean temp. (IMAGE)Nitrogen: Exceedance of the critical load of

N deposition (IMAGE)

Forest and Agriculture Management:extensive, intensive and irrigated agr.(national statistic data)


MSA = MSALUC * MSACC * MSAN * MSAI * MSAF

MSA= Mean abundance of original species relativeto pristine (original stage)

MSALUC = Remaining MSA for Land use changeMSACC = Remaining MSA for Climate changeMSAN = Remaining MSA for Nitrogen pollutionMSAI = Remaining MSA for InfrastructureMSAF = Remaining MSA for Fragmentation

0.5 * 0.5 degree at global11 km * 11 km & 1 km * 1 km (exercise)

Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Framework

Dbase2Access

Calculate Infrastructure per UniqueCell

Calculate Area Plantation And Timber Forest

Calculate Area Irrigated And Intensive Agriculture

Replace Areas for Agriculture and Forestry

Calculate Biodiversity values per Cell GLC

Create biodiversity asciigrid

BiodiversityValues

Time delayvalues

ClimateRegression

Values

Dbase2Access

Set Corrections On Biodiversity Per Unique Cell

Calculate Infrastructure Correction On Biodiversity

Impact classes

Calculate N-Depostion Correction On Biodiversity

N-DepositionCorrection onBiodiversity p~

Irrigated andIntensiveAgricultural Ar~

Area PlantationAnd TimberForest per Uni~

Calculate N Exceeding Classes per UniqueCell

Combine Unique Cells Regions Biomes GLCT and LandArea

N Exceedingper UniqueCell

dBase

Infrastructureper UniqueCell

Access

Grid Biomesscenario

fragmentation

Add fragmenation effect

N Exceedingper UniqueCell

Access

Calculate Biodiversity Per Unique Cell

CorrectedBiodiversityAsciigrid

Biodiversity perUU

GridN-deposition

Irrigated andIntensiveAgricultural Fr~

Infrastructureper UniqueCell

dBase

Biodiversity perUnique cell

Grid CriticalLoad N

Temperaturechange

Grid Area LandImageCells

GridInfrastructure

Sequential Grid Grid ImageRegions

Protected AreaTable

GLC Classes

CropArea

Forest_Plantation_Timberregim

e_Fraction

Infra correctionon Biodiversity

ScenarioUnique CellRegion Biome~

ScenarioUnique Cell

Biodiversity perUnique Cell

GLC

GLC fractionPer RegionBiome GLCT ~

LandArea perUniqueCellRegion Biome~

Unique CellRegion BiomesGLCT Combi ~

Calculate Scenario GLCArea Per Unique Cell Region Biome GLCT Combi

GLC Area perUnique CellRegion Biome~

corrected areawith IMAGEcrop area per ~

Correct Crop Area (GLC 16 class) with total region crop area

GLCT Imagescenario

LandArea perUniqueCellRegion Biome~

Dbase2Access

Landcover perUnique Cell

Access

Land Cover

Biomes

Crop area

Grazing area

Temperature

N-deposition

(GDP)

ArisFlow

Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3: Sources of Data

OEPP

DNP (2000)

Biodiversity in ThailandResults Thailand

Biodiversity in ThailandResults

0.60 0.620.71

0.580.51

0.45 0.47 0.51

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80

Warm mixed Grassland Desert Scrub Savannah Tropicalwoodland

Tropicalforest

Medit. Shrub

Biomes

Rem

aini

ng M

S

Remaining MSA = 0.57

Biodiversity in ThailandTrends from Global Perspective1970

20002030


21%

0%

2%

0%

0%

4%

15%

58%

Red. by agriculture

Red. by grazing

Red.by forestry

Red. by built up

Red. by nitrogen

Red.by climate

Red.by infra/fragment.

Remaining biodiversity


0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Warmmixed

Grassland Desert Scrub Savannah Tropicalwoodland

Tropicalforest

Medit.Shrub

% M

SA

Red. By agriculture Red. by grazing Red. by forestry Red.by build up

Red.by nitrogen Red.by climate Red.by infra/fragment Remaining biodiversity


Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity ModelingConclusions

The remaining MSA = 0.57; desert - highest (0.71); tropical woodland lowest (0.45)

The MSA will continue to decline rapidly in the future.

Encoachment for agriculture is the main pressure followed by infra/fragmenation.

Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity ModelingApplications

MSA is universal indicator to quantify biodiversity loss and pressure factors

Has potential for GAP Analysis of protectedarea system plan

Serve a base for enhancing regional cooperations


Mesoamerica Ecoregion Corridor

Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity Modeling

1 km2/1 ha (100 x 100 m)Sequential grid - 0.1‘ (11

x 11 km2)/pixcel resolution -1 km2

Information Inputs

ArcGIS and ArcView, etcArisFlow

River basin/admin unitNational scale (Region)

UTMLat/Long

Database Management/Analysis Tools

Nat. macroeconomic

Nat. demography census/survey IMAGE

1) Historical vegetation map/Ecoregion2) Plant and wildlife (predicting species niche

distribution)Biome

Nat. Land use/land cover classes (1:50,000)GLC2000

ThailandGlobal

Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity Modeling

Fertilizer inputNitrogen deposition

IUCN/national categories/intensityProtected area

Climate (temp. rain, max-min-range)Climate (mean T)

Overgrazing, forest fire, poverty, poaching, etc.

Patch size, isolation and shapePatch size effect

Need to integrate other pressures at national level –poverty, forest fire, etc

Projected land-use change (IMAGE) derived from global economy

Pressures/vulnerabilitiesPressures


THANK YOU&

SAWASDEE

Economy & Finance

Biodiversity Loss in Thailand