Austin: Growth, Change & PromiseApril 2014

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1. How fast is Austin growing?2. Where are people coming from?3. Why is Austin so attractive?4. Is everybody benefiting?5. What can I do?

Presentation Overview

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How fast is Austin growing?

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Rank Metro AreaPopulation

2013Pop Change

2000-13 Rate

1 Houston 6,313,158 1,595,651 34%

2 Dallas 6,810,913 1,575,528 30%

3 Atlanta 5,522,942 1,229,467 29%

4 Phoenix 4,398,762 1,125,285 34%

5 Riverside 4,380,878 1,103,856 34%

6 Washington DC 5,949,859 1,086,471 22%

7 New York 19,949,502 969,492 5%

8 Miami 5,828,191 802,296 16%

9 Los Angeles 13,131,431 738,727 6%

10 Las Vegas 2,027,868 633,959 45%

11 Austin 1,883,051 618,101 49%

Population growth in Austin keeping pace with much larger regions

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.

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Metro Area 2000-13 Rank Metro Area 2009-13 Rank

Raleigh 51% 1 Austin 12% 1

Austin 49% 2 Raleigh 9% 2

Las Vegas 45% 3 Houston 8% 3

Orlando 37% 4 San Antonio 8% 4

Charlotte 35% 5 Denver 7% 5

Phoenix 34% 6 Dallas 7% 6

Houston 34% 7 Orlando 7% 7

Riverside 34% 8 Washington DC 7% 8

San Antonio 32% 9 Oklahoma City 7% 9

Dallas 30% 10 Charlotte 6% 10

Austin is fastest growing large region since recession ended in 2009

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.

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1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%City of Austin

Austin MSA

Population Growth by Decade, 1940-2010

Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.

Austin MSA pop growth has outpaced Austin (city) growth since 1960s

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1940-50

1950-60

1960-70

1970-80

1980-90

1990-00

2000-10

2010-140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.9 0.8

1.5

2.02.2 2.1

3.5

2.8

Population Growth Ratio, 1940-2014Austin MSA / City of Austin

Austin MSA adding nearly three residents for every one new resident in Austin (city)

Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.

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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 201425%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

41%

52%

62% 63%59%

55%53%

46% 45%

City of Austin Share of Austin MSA Population1940-2014

Austin (city) share of Austin MSA pop appears to have stopped falling

Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.

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ZIPPop Change

2000-10

78748 15,290

78717 14,390

78732 10,431

78747 9,729

78754 9,614

78738 9,294

78744 9,114

78739 8,149

78726 6,642

78735 6,460

Fastest growing communities within Austin largely on periphery of city

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.

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ZIPPop Growth

2000-10

78738 327%

78732 287%

78725 231%

78747 192%

78754 177%

78717 177%

78726 103%

78739 94%

78701 77%

78737 70%

Downtown & other portions of central Austin rank highly on growth rate (%)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.

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Where are people coming from?

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Majority of population growth due to net migration of HHs to Austin MSA

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among all metro areas (MSA).

Rank Metro AreaNet Migration

2013Share of Total

Pop Growth

1 Houston 81,124 59%

2 Dallas 52,142 48%

3 Miami 42,484 65%

4 Washington DC 41,366 47%

5 Phoenix 40,451 57%

6 San Francisco 40,283 65%

7 Seattle 34,970 61%

8 Orlando 32,041 72%

9 Denver 31,404 62%

10 Austin 31,230 65%

Year

Net MoversAustin MSA

Per Day

2013 86

2012 99

2011 97

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Majority of net migration to Austin MSA coming from rest of U.S.

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among all metro areas (MSA).

Rank Metro AreaNet Migration

2013Domestic

ShareInternational

Share

1 Houston 81,124 69% 31%

2 Dallas 52,142 63% 37%

3 Miami 42,484 -24% 124%

4 Washington DC 41,366 11% 89%

5 Phoenix 40,451 79% 21%

6 San Francisco 40,283 42% 58%

7 Seattle 34,970 51% 49%

8 Orlando 32,041 54% 46%

9 Denver 31,404 84% 16%

10 Austin 31,230 83% 17%

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Travis County in 2010 tax year.

2010

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2010 tax year.

2010

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year.

2006

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Households2010

% Total HHs2010

HH Income2010

From Texas 20,780 61% $39,340

From Different State 13,007 38% $53,751

From International 244 1% $61,746

Nonmigrants * * $62,973

Most people moving to Austin come from other parts of Texas

Of the total number of federal tax filers moving to Travis County every year, just 7% come from California—i.e. 9 people, on average, compared to the 86 people moving here from other parts of Texas.

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year.

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To Travis County2010

County HHs HH Inc

Williamson 6,059 $41,144

Hays 1,906 $36,045

Harris 1,886 $48,573

Bexar 1,335 $37,136

Dallas 1,139 $49,426

Bastrop 734 $29,946

Tarrant 599 $45,447

Collin 425 $54,792

Bell 415 $32,248

Denton 316 $41,189

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by ESRI. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year.

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California is a significant source of HH migration to Austin from other states

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Tax returns used as proxy for households. HH income is adjusted gross income per return. 2010 tax year. Bold indicates origin counties with higher HH income in 2010 compared to nonmigrants in Travis County ($62,973).

CountyHHs

2010HH Inc

2010

Los Angeles, CA 537 $75,657

Cook, IL 369 $48,444

Maricopa, AZ 301 $47,086

San Diego, CA 267 $52,880

New York, NY 238 $84,819

King, WA 204 $65,774

Clark, NV 193 $41,217

Orange, CA 181 $78,850

Santa Clara, CA 175 $112,885

Kings, NY 166 $48,325

CountyHHs

2010HH Inc

2010

San Francisco, CA 145 $108,848

Middlesex, MA 134 $71,089

Alameda, CA 127 $52,850

Washington, DC 110 $67,845

Hennepin, MN 94 $47,414

Miami-Dade, FL 89 $57,213

Multnomah, OR 89 $35,764

Bernalillo, NM 86 $44,255

Fairfax, VA 85 $138,776

Allegheny, PA 84 $50,714

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Steiner Ranch is among most popular neighborhoods for out-of-state HHs

1. Steiner Ranch2. Milwood/Arrowwood3. North Burnet/Domain4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake5. Canyon Creek6. Hyde Park

7. North Loop8. Onion Creek9. Barton Creek/Hills10. Old West Austin11. Northwest Hills12. Preston Oaks

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011, Five-Year Estimates.

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• Most people moving to Austin come from other parts of Texas.

• Most people moving to Austin from other states have lower HH income compared to existing residents.

• Austin usually gains (net) residents from other large Texas counties & usually loses residents to nearby counties in the MSA (esp WilCo).

Migration myths stand in way of better understanding real drivers of growth

Note: Austin here is shorthand for Travis County. Migration data from the IRS is not available for cities.

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• Generally, people moving from Austin to Williamson & Hays have higher income than movers from Williamson & Hays to Austin, but lower inc than existing HHs.

• HHs moving to Austin report slightly fewer dependents than HHs moving away from Austin.

• More data on age, education, income, race/ethnicity available from Census http://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov

Migration myths stand in way of better understanding real drivers of growth

Note: Austin here is shorthand for Travis County. Migration data from the IRS is not available for cities.

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Why is Austin so attractive?

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

US (MSA)

Austin MSA

Real Annual GDP Growth, 2002-12

Austin MSA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among metro areas with $50 billion or more.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars).

Economic growth in Austin outpacing most other U.S. regions

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Austin is leading all large metros in job growth (%) since recession ended

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Total Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with employment of 500,000 or more.

Rank Metro AreaEmployment

Dec 2013Job Growth

Jun 09-Dec 13 Rate

1 Austin 863,700 105,500 13.9%

2 Nashville 819,600 98,500 13.7%

3 San Jose 951,800 96,000 11.2%

4 Houston 2,812,700 283,200 11.2%

5 Charlotte 889,600 84,900 10.6%

6 Dallas 3,135,900 278,800 9.8%

7 Salt Lake City 662,100 54,900 9.0%

8 Oklahoma City 616,800 49,900 8.8%

9 Raleigh 538,100 41,300 8.3%

10 Denver 1,288,700 92,000 7.7%

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Austin is still competitive on housing affordability but the gap is closing

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Total Non-Farm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted. Zillow, February 2014. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with employment of 500,000 or more. Zillow rent/buy are median list prices.

Rank Metro AreaJob Growth

Jun 09-Dec 13Rent Per Sq Ft

Central CityBuy Per Sq Ft

Central City

1 Austin 13.9% $1.27 $165

2 Nashville 13.7% $0.93 $105

3 San Jose 11.2% $2.15 $407

4 Houston 11.2% $1.19 $119

5 Charlotte 10.6% $0.77 $97

6 Dallas 9.8% $1.26 $132

7 Salt Lake City 9.0% $1.00 $188

8 Oklahoma City 8.8% $0.74 $90

9 Raleigh 8.3% $0.79 $114

10 Denver 7.7% $1.47 $246

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Annual Openings2009-13

Avg WageAustin MSA

Avg WageNation

General &Operations Managers 723 $117,208 $114,858Registered Nurses 706 $64,334 $67,933Software Developers, Applications 646 $98,904 $93,288Accountants and Auditors 644 $66,602 $71,032Postsecondary Teachers 313 $71,302 $73,798Electronic Equipment Assemblers 277 $27,165 $30,971Management Analysts 230 $92,810 $88,067Computer Programmers 228 $85,301 $78,270Financial Analysts 160 $93,392 $89,398Civil Engineers 126 $93,080 $84,136Public Relations Specialists 111 $66,643 $61,984

Job openings at all skill levels fueling Austin’s population growth

Source: EMSI

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http://www.mindmeister.com/24358308/austin-entrepreneurship-scene

Public/private partnerships improving Austin’s entrepreneurship ecosystem

Number of small businesses in Austin MSA grew by 26% during 2000-2010, compared to only 1% nationally.

Source: US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses

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Is everybody benefiting?

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19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

201250

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Williamson

Hays

Per Capita Income (US=100)

Austin’s growing prosperity is not showing much ROI for PCI

Travis

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Asian

White

Black or African American

Hispanic or Latino

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

30%

45%

73%

80%

Education inequality is a serious threat to Austin’s economic development

% Pop Age 25+ in Austin MSA with No Completed Postsecondary Degree

Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates.

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• 64% of job openings during 2013-2023 paying a living wage for a family of one adult and one child ($17 per hour) will require a postsecondary degree.

• 54% (519,000) of primary working age pop (25-64) in Austin MSA had no postsecondary in 2009.

• Must do better job of preparing Austin residents for new jobs.

Source: Living wage from CPPP http://familybudgets.org. Assumes employer-paid health care & no savings.

Workforce competitiveness is economic, social, and growth management issue

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What can I do?

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• Education—adopt regional SMART goal of completed postsecondary degree for majority of working age population.

• Inclusion—leverage Dell Medical School opportunity to show how an innovation driven economic development strategy can achieve broad-based wealth gains.

• Leadership—end veteran homelessness and reduce working poverty.

Austin must renew its commitment to being the home of “big ideas”

@civicanalytics

http://civicanalytics.com

512-731-7851

brian@civicanalytics.com

Brian Kelsey, Principal & Founder7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108Austin, Texas 78757