POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTIONPOLICY POLICY
ADOPTIONADOPTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
• EVENTEVENT
POLICY ASSESSMENT
• COSTCOST
• BENEFITBENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
BUILDING A CULTURE OF BUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
GLOBAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE
NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS
GLOBAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE
NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS
EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
UNIQUE TOOLS FOR IMPROVING EDUCATION, MITIGATION,
MONITORING, AND ADAPTATION FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
BOOK OF
BOOK OF
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
- Perspectives
- Perspectives
On Science, Policy,
On Science, Policy,
And EM HI-ED
And EM HI-ED
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• DROUGHTS• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE WINDSTORMS• WILDFIRES• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS• TSUNAMIS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
DROUGHTDROUGHT
WILDFIRESWILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONSVOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
\LANDSLIDES\LANDSLIDES
TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS
LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKESHURRICANES/TYPHOONS
HURRICANES/TYPHOONS FLOODSFLOODS
GCC AND NATURAL HAZARDSGCC AND NATURAL HAZARDS
ATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERIC GEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGIC HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC
THE DILEMNA OF DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE OCCURS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL
WHERE, BROAD BRUSH STROKES ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN
THE ISSUE:
WERE RECENT UNUSUALLY SEVERE PHYSICAL EFFECTS EXACERBATED BY
SOME OF MAN’S PAST ACTIONS, OR
WERE THEY INDEPENDENT OF MAN AND EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE?
WAS THE WINTER OF 2008 UNUSUAL?
VERY COLD IN CHINAVERY COLD IN NEW YORKSNOW IN AMMAN, JORDANVERY WARM IN SWEDENVERY WARM IN NORWAYVERY WARM IN ENGLAND
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS (Typical Climates Norms
Replaced by Hotter Norms)
Based on a research report published by the
University of Hawaii at Manoa
October 2013
GLOBAL HOT SPOTS
• Global temperatures at Locations worldwide will exceed historic norms as soon as 2020, … and no later than 2069
EXAMPLES
• 2020 IN MANOKWARI, INDONESIA
• 2023 IN KINGSTON, JAMAICA
• 2029 IN LAGOS, NIGERIA
• 2047 IN WASHINGTON, DC
YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•MONITORING•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE
•EDUCATION•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EM RESPONSE•RECOVERY
POLICY TOOLS FOR POLICY TOOLS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTIONPOLICY POLICY
ADOPTIONADOPTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
• EVENTEVENT
POLICY ASSESSMENT
• COSTCOST
• BENEFITBENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
BUILDING A CULTURE OF BUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
GLOBAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE
NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS
GLOBAL GLOBAL CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE
NATURAL NATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS
EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IF THE PREDICTIONS ARE RIGHT, WE WILL BE LIVING WITH THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WAS ONLY DISCUSSED IN A HYPO-THETICAL WAY FOR MANY YEARS.
• If CONSIDERED AS A THREAT, IT WAS A THREAT FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE.
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IS INCREASINGLY BEING REGARDED AS A FACT, …
• WHICH IMPLIES SERIOUS RISKS THAT PRESENT AND FUTURE GEN-ERATIONS ALIKE WILL HAVE TO FACE.
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
• MITIGATION ADDRESSES THE “FRONT END” OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM.
• IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL PREVENT (OR REDUCE) THE RELEASE OF EXCESS CO2 EMMISIONS.
• ADAPTATION ADDRESSES THE “BACK END” OF THE PROBLEM.
• IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL SAFE-GUARD A PERSON, A COMMUNITY, A BUSINESS, OR A NATION AS THEY LIVE WITH THE LIKELY IMPACTS.
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• ADAPTATION IS REQUIRED BECAUSE WE CAN NOT TURN OFF THE MOMENTUM OF ADVERSE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SHORT TIME.
• CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DECADES, AND
• OCEANS STORE HEAT FOR CENTURIES.
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• MANY COUNTRIES ARE NOW MAKING LARGE INVESTMENTS IN MITIGATION AND ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION ACTIONS.
• LEADERS RECOGNIIZE THAT THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISKS FOR PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, AND COMMUNITIES LIVING IN OR LOCATED IN COASTAL AREAS OR IN RIVER FLOODPLAINS.
THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• AFTER 800 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE BATTLING THE NORTH SEA, THE NETHERLANDS HAS NOW CREATED SOME OF THE STRONGEST FLOOD DEFENSES IN THE WORLD.
• PRESENT RIVER DEFENSES PROVIDE 1-IN -250 YEARS PROTECTION LEVELS.
THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING, A PART OF THE DELTA WORKS DAMS, DEFENDS AGAINST THE NORTH SEA.
• THEY ARE NOW BEING MADE STRONGER TO PROVIDE 1-IN-100,000 YEARS PROTECTION INSTEAD OF 1-IN-10,000 YEARS PROTECTION.
THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE DUTCH ARE ALSO REVISING TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT THINKING.
• IN ADDITION TO CONTAINING THE FLOOD WATERS, THEY WILL ALLOW CERTAIN DESIGNAGTED LOCATIONS TO BE FLOODED.
• THIS STRATEGY IS CALLED, “LIVING WITH WATER.”
THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE NETHERLANDS WILL COMMIT ABOUT $1.3 BILLION ANNUALLY TO INCREASE FLOOD PROTECTION LEVELS.
• THIS INVESTMENT IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 0.2 PERCENT OF THE NETHERLAND’S GDP.
BRITAIN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE BRITISH ARE IMPROVING AND EXTENDING THE “THAMES BARRIER,” A SET OF FLOODGATES ACROSS THE THAMES RIVER.
• WHEN THE BARRIER IS CLOSED (ABOUT 10 TIMES A YEAR) IT PROVIDES 1-IN-2,000 YEARS PROTECTION OF LONDON FROM FLOODING CAUSED BY OCEAN SURGES DURING STORMS.
BRITAIN:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE PREDICTED RISE IN SEA LEVEL BY 2030 IS EXPECTED TO REQUIRE AN INCREASE IN PROTECTION ALONG THE THAMES TO 1-IN-1,000 YEARS.
• THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED AND UPGRADED BY 2100.
JAPAN:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP, AND EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FROM TYPHOONS.
• ITS 12-YEAR-OLD “G-CANS PROJECT” HAS CREATED A MASSIVE UNDERGROUND CONCRETE “RIVER SYSTEM” IN NORTHWEST TOKYO TO FACILITATE REMOVAL OF EXCESS WATER FROM TOKYO’S STREETS.
JAPAN:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• JAPAN HAS INSTALLED UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER SECOND OUT OF RIVERS AND INTO THE HARBOR TO PREVENT FLOODING OF CTY STREETS.
• THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CONSIDERED TO BE OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY NOW.
BANGLADESH:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• BANGLADESH, ONE OF THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES ON EARTH TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NOW REQUIRES USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS IN ALL FUTURE PLANNING AND DECISIONS.
• IT HAS BEGUN SWITCHING LAND USE FROM RICE FARMING TO PRAWN FARMING IN LOCATIONS WHRE SALT WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW MOVING INLAND.
BANGLADESH:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• BUT, BEING ONE OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, BANGLADESH CAN NOT AFFORD THE INVESTMENTS REQUIRED FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES NOW UNDERWAY IN MANY INDUSTRALIZED COUNTRIES.
• IT NEEDS INTERNATIONAL AID, WHICH IS NOT NOW AS AVAILABLE AS IN THE PAST.
UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• ADAPTATION IS NOW ON THE AMERICAN AGENDA BECAUSE OF HURRICANE KATRINA AND ITS IMPACT ON NEW ORLEANS AND THE GULF COAST.
• NEW ORLEANS HAS BECOME A LABORATORY FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, HAZARD INSURANCE, AND PUBLIC POLICY.
UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM ONLY PROVIDES 1-IN-100 YEARS PROTECTION NOW.
• 122 LEVEES IN THE SYSTEM ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE INADEQUATE FOR THE INCREASED SEVERITY OF WIND FIELDS AND STORM SURGES EXPECTED IN FUTURE HURRICANES.
UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH,” A THREE-LAYERED SYSTEM, HAS BEEN DEVISED TO PROTECT NEW ORLEANS.
• EACH LAYER ACTS LIKE A SPEED BUMP TO ABSORB AND REDUCE THE ENERGY AND DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS OF THE SEVERE WINDSTORM.
UNITED STATES:MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH:• THE INNER LAYER CONSISTS OF
HARDENED LEVEES AND FLOOD WALLS.
• THE MIDDLE LAYER IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF WETLANDS.
• THE THIRD LAYER IS THE BARRIER ISLANDS THAT MUST BE TRAVERSED BEFORE LANDFALL.