©Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2006
GLOBAL ENERGY REVIEW
West Africa: Prospects for Oil and Gas
A Report by Dr Paul McDonald
Consulting Editor, Oil and Energy Trends
A survey of the oil and gas reserves of West Africa;
With forecasts of production in 2015
26 November, 2006
©Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2006
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Contents
Introduction 4
Oil 6 Reserves & Production 6 Production Prospects 8
Countries in Decline 9 Cameroon 9 Congo (formerly Zaïre) 10 Gabon 10
Countries that have reversed their Decline 10 Congo-Brazzaville 10
Countries where Output is increasing 10 Angola 11 Equatorial Guinea 11 Ivory Coast 11 Nigeria 11
Countries with uncertain Prospects 12 Chad 12
Countries that may produce Oil by 2015 13 Niger 13 Sao Tome e Principe 13
Outlook for Oil Production to 2015 13
Natural Gas 16 Reserves & Production 16
Nigeria 17 LNG 17 Gas-to-Power 19
Outlook for Nigerian Gas 20 Other Gas Producers 20
Angola 20 Cameroon 21 Equatorial Guinea 21 Gabon 21 Ghana 22
Outlook for Natural Gas to 2015 22
Gas to Liquids 24
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List of Tables
Table 1 West Africa: Oil Reserves, 2006 6
Table 2 West Africa: Oil Production, 2006 7
Table 3 West Africa: Oil Reserves:Production Ratios, 2006 8
Table 4 West Africa: Oil Production 2005 and 2015 14
Table 5 West Africa: Proven Gas reserves, 2006 16
Table 6 Nigeria: LNG Exports, 2005 17
Table 7 Nigeria: Present and Future LNG Export Capacity 18
Table 8 West Africa: LNG Capacity, 2005 & 2015 22
Table 9 West Africa: Gas Production 2005 and 2015 23
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Introduction
West Africa contains less than 4% of the world’s proven oil reserves but accounts for just
over 6% of global output of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL). It is of particular
significance to the international oil industry, however, in that it contains four countries
where output is expected to increase. These countries are:
o Angola
o Equatorial Guinea
o Ivory Coast
o Nigeria
West African countries have attracted large amounts of upstream investment from the
international oil industry. Two of the countries, Angola and Nigeria, produce over
1 mn bpd each, and have considerable potential to increase their output. Equatorial
Guinea and Ivory Coast are expected to show reasonable gains from a much lower base.
Chad was once also forecast to provide significant gains in output, but its production has
recently gone into decline following major disagreements between the government and its
foreign oil industry partners.
The region is also well-endowed with natural gas and contains the world’s seventh-
largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Nigeria. Its proven reserves constitute
3% of the world’s total. Commercial production outside Nigeria, however, is very low.
Much of West Africa’s gas is flared or reinjected into oil reservoirs. There is
considerable potential for commercial production of natural gas if markets can be
developed. Nigeria has progressed furthest with this, having LNG exports already and
being in the process of developing markets in neighbouring countries through the
development of a gas transmission system.
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Oil and gas developments in West Africa carry a considerable amount of political risk.
Relations between international oil companies and West African governments have not
always proved easy, as in the case of Chad. In Nigeria, the oil companies have come
under fierce attack from the inhabitants of the main oil- and gas-producing areas for what
is seen as their collusion with the federal government in diverting oil revenues away from
the producing regions to other parts of Nigeria, notably the Muslim north. In recent
years, these protests from the largely non-Muslim south-east have spilled over into
violence, leading to the kidnapping and even deaths of foreign oil workers. Some
international oil firms have been forced to shut-in production and plans to increase the
production of oil and gas have been delayed.
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Oil
Reserves & Production
With proven oil and NGL reserves of 48.8 bn bbl (see Table 1), West Africa accounts for
just under 4% of the world total. Of these 48.8 bn bbl, however, some 35.9 bn bbl, or
nearly 74%, lie in Nigeria. Angola has some 5.4 bn bbl, corresponding to just over 11%,
leaving the remaining 7.5 bn bbl, or 15%, spread amongst the following countries:
Cameroon, Chad, Congo (formerly Zaïre), Congo-Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon
and Ivory Coast.
Table 1
West Africa: Oil Reserves, 2006
Country Proven Reserves
(bn bbl)
Angola 5.4
Cameroon 0.4
Chad 1.5
Congo 0.2
Congo-Brazzaville 1.5
Equatorial Guinea 1.1*
Gabon 2.5
Ivory Coast 0.1
Nigeria 35.9
Total 48.8†
* GER estimate † Including countries not listed separately
Totals rounded
Source: Oil & Gas Journal
The region’s crude oil and NGL production is similarly concentrated in Nigeria–with an
output of 2.6 mbd, or 51% of the regional total–and Angola, whose 1.3 mbd production
accounts for 25% of regional production. The remaining seven countries produce some
1.2 mn bpd, equivalent to 24% of the total (see Table 2).
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Table 2
West Africa: Oil Production, 2006
Country Production*
(kbd)
Angola 1,300
Cameroon 80
Chad 170
Congo 25
Congo-Brazzaville 260
Equatorial Guinea 360
Gabon 235
Ivory Coast 45
Nigeria 2,595
Total 5,100†
* Crude + NGL † Including countries not listed separately
Totals rounded
Source: GER estimate
At current levels of production, the nine oil-producing countries of West Africa have
some 26 years of reserves remaining, based on their existing levels of proven reserves.
Nigeria has just over 38 years, while Angola has only 11, on the reserves’ total of
5.4 bn bbl, estimated by the Oil & Gas Journal. BP’s Statistical Review of World
Energy, 2006, gives a higher total, amounting to 9.0 bn bbl, which would give a
reserves:production ratio of nearly 19:1, using the output figures in Table 2. Of the
remaining seven countries, Gabon has the highest ratio, amounting to 29:1 (see Table 3).
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Table 3
West Africa: Oil Reserves:Production Ratios, 2006
Country Reserves:Production Ratio*
Angola 11:1
Cameroon 14:1
Chad 24:1
Congo 22:1
Congo-Brazzaville 16:1
Equatorial Guinea 8:1
Gabon 29:1
Ivory Coast 6:1
Nigeria 39:1
Total 26:1
* Based on figures given in Tables 1 & 2
Totals rounded
Source: Tables 1 & 2
Production Prospects
The region has attracted considerable attention from foreign companies, several of which
assess reserves levels more highly than does the Oil & Gas Journal. BP’s Statistical
Review of World Energy, 2006 gives higher totals for both Angola and Congo-
Brazzaville. The figure for Equatorial Guinea given in Table 1 may also be an
underestimate.
West Africa contains one fairly new oil producer–Chad–which began production in 2003.
Of the nine producing-countries in the region, four or five are expected to increase their
production in future. The output proposals for all nine may be summarized as follows:
Countries in Decline
o Cameroon
o Congo
o Gabon
Countries that have reversed their Decline
o Congo-Brazzaville
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Countries where Output is increasing
o Angola
o Equatorial Guinea
o Ivory Coast
o Nigeria
Countries with uncertain Prospects
o Chad
There are a few non-producing countries that are attracting attention from international
oil companies. Some of these may begin to produce oil within the next decade. The most
prospective of these countries appear to be:
o Niger
o Sao Tome e Principe
The prospects for each of these countries are considered in the following sections.
Countries in Decline
The following countries are in long term decline:
o Cameroon
o Congo
o Gabon
Cameroon
Cameroon’s reserves of 400 mn bbl and production of 80,000 bpd must both be
accounted modest, as must its reserves:production ratio of 14:1. Its production of oil has
been in continuous decline since 1997, when it stood at 125,000 bpd.
There appears little prospect of a recovery in output despite the government’s attempts to
encourage foreign exploration activity. Any new discoveries are expected to come from
the Logone Birni and Douala Basins, which are largely unexplored.
Further discoveries will do little more than slow down the rate of decline in Cameroon’s
production. Assuming one or two new developments, it might well be producing
between 30,000 and 50,000 bpd by 2015.
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Congo (formerly Zaïre)
The Congo is West Africa’s smallest producer, with output of only 25,000 bpd and
reserves of 200 mn bbl. Years of war have helped to keep outside investment interest
low. Output has declined since 1996, when it was 30,000 bpd. By 2015, it is likely to be
negligible or have ceased altogether.
Gabon
Gabon was once an important West African producer and a member of OPEC. Output
peaked in 1996 at 365,000 bpd, since when it has declined to 235,000 bpd. On the other
hand, it has the best reserves:production ratio of any producer in the region with the
exception of Nigeria. Output looks set to go on declining, perhaps to about 150,000 bpd
by 2015.
Countries that have reversed their Decline
There is just one country in this category.
Congo-Brazzaville
Congo-Brazzaville’s production peaked at 295,000 bpd in 1999 and fell to 240,000 bpd in
2004. Since then, production has revived slightly to 260,000 bpd.
This revival could continue in a modest way thanks to new finds at M’Boundi and Moho-
Bilondo. Production from these fields should partly offset the decline from Congo-
Brazzaville’s older fields. Some 150,000 bpd of new production is scheduled to be
commissioned by 2008. This could provide a temporary boost to output but Congo-
Brazzaville’s long term decline looks likely to resume before 2015, by which time it
should be producing around 200,000 bpd.
Countries where Output is increasing
Countries where output is increasing and expected to go on rising are:
o Angola
o Equatorial Guinea
o Ivory Coast
o Nigeria
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Angola
Angola’s output has already increased since 2005, when it produced about 1.3 mn bpd.
The field developments currently under way should more than offset the expected decline
from the older fields of Cabinda, Palanca, Quito and Xikomba. Among the planned
developments are Dalia, Blocks 18 & 31, Pazflor and a possible ultra-deepwater
development by Total in Block 32. Oil production should go on rising to 2010, when it
should be near 2.5 mn bpd. Thereafter there could be a dip in output as the number of
new field developments falls. By 2015, however, output could be in the region of
2.4 mn bpd, assuming Block 32 is by then in operation.
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea has promising offshore acreage and production has risen from less
than 20,000 bpd in 1996 to 360,000 bpd in 2005. Increasing condensate production could
add a further 60,000 bpd this year, but the country appears to be more gas-prone than oil-
rich. A new field–the 60,000 bpd Okume development–is due on-stream in 2007.
Chad’s oil production is unlikely to exceed 500,000 bpd and will probably be in decline
by 2015 unless a further large discovery is made, though with further small discoveries it
could be in the region of 300,000 bpd.
Ivory Coast
With output of 45,000 bpd in 2005, Ivory Coast is a minor producer. Its reserves are also
correspondingly small. Rising production from the Baobab field could help to push
output above 60,000 bpd in 2006. Peak production looks likely to be around 100,000 bpd
and output could well be in decline by 2015 and back below 45,000 bpd.
Nigeria
Nigeria has recently raised its reserve estimates by nearly 50% to 35.9 bn bbl (see
Table 1) and has plans to raise this to 40.0 bn bbl by 2010. There has been considerable
upstream activity in Nigeria, much of it by foreign oil companies. Nigeria’s problems lie
not in its reserve levels but in the social and political unrest in the main oil-producing
areas, which has frequently spilled over into violence and delayed several field
developments.
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These delays, coupled with disagreements between the government and some foreign oil
companies over upstream contract terms, threaten plans both to find new reserves and to
raise production by 1.4 mn bpd to 4.0 mn bpd. There is also some doubt whether the
deeper parts of the continental shelf contain as much oil as has been estimated. If the
deepwater fields are to be exploited successfully, Nigeria will have to improve its
attractiveness to large international oil companies, since they alone have the funds and
the expertise to develop these fields.
With large scale international involvement and an end to the unrest in the Delta region,
which is the country’s largest producing area, Nigeria might eventually achieve its
4 mn bpd target. Without such developments, it may not go much above 3 mn bpd
between now and 2015.
Countries with uncertain Prospects
There is one country in this category.
Chad
Chad was once considered a most promising oil prospect until a dispute broke out
between the government and a foreign consortium consisting of ExxonMobil, Petronas
and Chevron, which is responsible for Chad’s oil production. The government alleges
under-payment of taxes by the oil companies. On the other hand, the government is
accused by the World Bank of failing to ensure that oil revenues were properly invested
in alleviating poverty and improving the economic infrastructure. The World Bank
helped to finance the development of Chad’s oilfields and the 1,070-mile export pipeline
to Kribi on the Gulf of Guinea. Chad first began producing oil in 2003.
The dispute has not exactly helped Chad’s prospects as an oil producer. A further
problem has arisen, however, which threatens future levels of output. The main
producing area, known as Doba Basin, contains more water in its reservoir structures than
was originally expected. Output in 2005, at 170,000 bpd, is 60,000 bpd, or 26% lower
than planned. Production in 2006 has continued at disappointing levels for what have
been described as ‘technical’ reasons.
The foreign consortium brought a new field, Moundouli, on-stream in 2006 and
announced plans to drill another one, Maikeri, in 2007. Another basin, Lake Chad, is
thought to be prospective and capable of providing commercial quantities of oil. Despite
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this, the outlook for Chadian production remains uncertain. It seems unlikely that Chad
will be producing much above 200,000 bpd in 2015.
Countries that may produce Oil by 2015
There are two countries in West Africa that might begin producing oil between now and
2015. They are:
o Niger
o Sao Tome e Principe
Niger
Niger is attracting interest from Asian companies and Algeria’s Sonatrach. Petronas has
already discovered oil, though reserves are thought to be modest. Output in 2015 is
unlikely to exceed 100,000 bpd.
Sao Tome e Principe
Considerable optimism has been expressed for the continental shelf surrounding Sao
Tome e Principe. Development has been delayed, however, by arguments over upstream
terms and the need to agree offshore boundaries. Some foreign companies have dropped
out. Production-sharing contracts are currently being negotiated for an area shared with
Nigeria, known as the Joint Development Zone. Some of the companies involved in
recent licensing rounds have lacked the necessary offshore experience to operate in this
area. There could nevertheless be some production–up to 300,000 bpd–by 2015.
Outlook for Oil Production to 2015
West African oil production should show a net gain by 2015 thanks to growth in six of
the nine oil producers and the start of oil production in two more countries. A complete
forecast is given in Table 4.
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Table 4
West Africa: Oil Production 2005 and 2015
Country Production
(kbd)
2005 2015 Change
Angola 1,300 2,400 1,100
Cameroon 80 40 (40)
Chad 170 200 30
Congo 25 * (25)
Congo-Brazzaville 260 200 (60)
Equatorial Guinea 360 300 (60)
Gabon 235 150 (85)
Ivory Coast 45 40 (5)
Nigeria 2,595 4,000 1,405
Niger * 100 100
Sao Tome e Principe * 300 300
Total 5,100† 7,730† 2,630†
* Zero or negligible † Including countries not listed separately
Totals rounded
Source: GER estimate
The largest increase (1.4 mn bpd) is forecast to come from Nigeria. Its ability to reach
the predicted level of 4.0 mn bpd will depend principally on the country’s ability to end
the unrest in its oil-producing regions. Without the pacification of the Delta region,
foreign oil companies may very well delay or cancel planned expansion programmes. If
this were to happen Nigerian production might be nearer 3.0 mn bpd in 2015.
Angola remains a highly attractive upstream prospect and may even exceed the forecast
growth of 1.1 mn bpd by 2010. Gains from other countries are expected to be small.
Chad’s output could even fail to grow by the expected 30,000 bpd if further disputes arise
between the government and its foreign production partners.
Output levels for Niger and Sao Tome e Principe for 2015 must be considered somewhat
theoretical since there is no production in either country at present and no firm timetable
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for future developments. Of the two, Sao Tome e Principe appears the more prospective
for oil, though it is something of an exaggeration to say–as some consultants have–that it
may be thought of as ‘the new Kuwait’.
With all these considerations in mind, it is possible to think of West African production
around 7.7 mn bpd in 2015: a rise of 2.6 mn bpd, or just over 50%. This figure of
7.7 mn bpd should nevertheless be considered as a ‘best case scenario’ assuming, as it
does, that major political problems in Nigeria, Chad and elsewhere, will be satisfactorily
resolved.
In the event that these problems are not solved or that further ones arise, then the
forecasts presented in Table 4 may need to be revised downwards by 1.0 mn bpd or more.
The biggest numerical uncertainty exists over Nigeria, which accounts for nearly all the
1 million-plus bpd of uncertainty described above.
The future could nevertheless be bright for the region given the right political
circumstances. Moreover, by 2015, there could even be interest in certain other countries
not listed in Table 4, notably Namibia and the Canary Islands, not to mention in several
unexplored parts of the Gulf of Guinea.
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Natural Gas
Reserves & Production
West Africa contains impressive reserves of natural gas but little commercial production
outside Nigeria. Large quantities of gas are flared. In some cases, gas is reinjected into
oil reservoirs in order to maintain pressure levels. In a few cases, it is used to generate
electricity. There are plans to increase its use in power generation in an attempt to
stimulate gas production in various parts of the region.
Table 5
West Africa: Proven Gas Reserves, 2006
Country Reserves
(trillion cf)
Angola 1.6
Cameroon 3.9
Congo-Brazzaville 3.2
Equatorial Guinea 1.3
Gabon 1.2
Ivory Coast 1.0
Nigeria 184.7
Total 197.8†
† Including countries not listed separately
Totals rounded
Source: Oil & Gas Journal
Some 93% of West Africa’s proven reserves of natural gas lie in Nigeria. This
proportion looks set to diminish, however, as other countries undertake large scale
exploration programmes. Angola’s unexplored regions are thought to be particularly
prospective and estimates of likely finds range from about 10-25 trillion cf.
Commercial production of natural gas in West Africa is estimated at 2.3 bn cfd, of which
2.1 bn cfd comes from Nigeria. Over half of Nigeria’s production is exported as LNG.
Most of the rest is reinjected. Large quantities are still flared, though the government is
trying to reduce this.
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On current production levels, Nigeria’s gas reserves are sufficient to last for more than
100 years, as are those of the rest of West Africa. The increase of commercial production
should reduce these reserves:production ratios considerably across the region.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s policy is to increase the export of LNG and to develop an integrated gas grid
serving electricity generating stations and other large users in Nigeria and in
neighbouring countries.
LNG
Nigeria exported 1.1 bn cfd of LNG in 2005, according to figures compiled by Cedigaz
(see Table 6). These figures, however, underestimate the total volumes exported since
they take no account of spot sales and other quantities delivered over-and-above
contracted levels.
Table 6
Nigeria: LNG Exports, 2005
Destination Volume*
(mn cfd)
Europe
Spain 484
France 406
Portugal 153
Turkey 100
Total Europe 1,142
North America
US 22
Total North America 22
Total World 1,164
Totals rounded
* Contract volumes only
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006; Cedigaz
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Nigeria has LNG export capacity of 2.3 bn cfd at its Bonny Island terminal. There are
plans to increase this considerably with the development of several more export schemes
(see Table 7).
Table 7
Nigeria: Present and Future LNG Export Capacity
Terminal Capacity Completion
(bn cfd)
Present Terminals
Nigeria LNG/Bonny
Trains 1-5 2.3 In Operation
Total 2.3
Proposed Terminals
Nigeria LNG/Bonny
Train 6 0.7 2007
Brass LNG
Trains 1-2 1.3 2009
OK LNG/Olokola
Trains 1-4 2.9 2010
Bonny LNG
N/A 2.8* 2009
Total 7.7
* Unconfirmed
N/A Not available
Totals rounded
Completion dates provisional
Source: Oil press
Under present proposals, Nigeria plans to have 7.7 bn cfd of new LNG export capacity
available by 2010, giving it a total of 10.0 bn cfd, when the existing terminal at Bonny is
taken into account. Nothing like this capacity is likely to be provided within such a short
timescale, however, and most–if not all–the schemes listed in Table 7 for 2007-onwards
are likely to be delayed.
Brass LNG suffered from the withdrawal of a major investor–Chevron–early in 2006. Its
first LNG may be delayed until 2010. Some analysts have speculated that the start-up
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may be even later. OK LNG’s commissioning has already been put back from 2009 to
2010 and could slip into 2011. Bonny LNG is reported behind its original schedule and
may not open until around 2012.
The success of these schemes depends to a considerable extent on the ability of the
Nigerian authorities to bring the unrest in its oil and gas-producing regions under control.
Several foreign companies, which constitute a major target for protestors, are known to
be uneasy about the continuing rise in violence in the Delta region. What is particularly
alarming is the way the violence has spread from its original target–the oil industry–to
include installations operated by foreign gas companies.
Gas-to-Power
In addition to its ambitious LNG export plans, Nigeria wants to build a pipeline
transmission system connecting its gasfields with potential consumers in neighbouring
countries. The principal target is the power sector, and the aim is to establish an
integrated gas and power grid across large parts of West Africa, consisting of gas-fired
power stations linked by a new electricity grid covering the region.
The gas transmission network will be based on a trunkline known as the West African
Gas Pipeline, which is to be built in stages westwards from Nigeria. It is hoped that other
large gas-using customers will sign-up for supplies to supplement the volumes taken by
the power generators.
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Outlook for Nigerian Gas
There is no physical reason why Nigeria should not greatly increase its present level of
gas production of 2.1 bn cfd considerably. Much of the increase will be dictated by the
speed at which new LNG terminals can be built. Nigeria could have more than
10.0 bn cfd of LNG and pipeline export capacity by 2015, though this figure could be
considerably lower if one or more of the LNG schemes listed in Table 7 were to be
further delayed or even cancelled. Much will depend on the government’s ability to bring
peace to its south-eastern region.
Other Gas Producers
Small amounts of gas are produced outside Nigeria, but a great deal is flared.
Commercial production in the rest of West Africa looks to be in the region of 0.2 bn cfd.
Several countries, however, plan to develop domestic markets for their gas and, in some
cases, to export it.
The principal potential gas producers are:
o Angola
o Cameroon
o Equatorial Guinea
o Gabon
o Ghana
Angola
Angola’s proven reserves of 1.6 trillion cf are at present modest, but this figure is likely
to increase sharply as exploration increases. The country’s gas is at present flared,
reinjected into oil reservoirs or processed for the recovery of LPG. The government
plans to reduce flaring and develop a domestic market, but the main stimulus to gas
exploration and production is likely to come from the possibility of exporting it as LNG.
The national oil company Sonangol, has joined BP, ExxonMobil, Total and Chevron in
promoting a 0.7 bn cfd LNG export scheme. First gas is due sometime before 2011,
though this timetable could slip.
Once the LNG scheme acquires a firm timetable, exploration should receive a
considerable boost. Outside estimates put Angola’s likely future proven reserve levels
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around 10 trillion cf, and some even go as high as 25 trillion cf. Everything depends,
however, on the possibilities for export.
Cameroon
Cameroon has the largest proven gas reserves in West Africa outside Nigeria at present,
with an estimated total of 3.9 trillion cf. More discoveries of associated gas are expected
in the Kribi-Campo, Douala and Rio Del Rey Basins, but the local gas market is tiny.
Gas production may nevertheless rise as a result of the development of local gas-using
industries, but output is likely to remain small for the foreseeable future.
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea’s 1.3 trillion cf of reserves lie offshore, mainly in the Alba and Zafiro
fields. Some are associated gas from the Zafiro oilfield, but most are found in the Alba
gasfield. The total is expected to rise following the start of work on the first train of an
LNG export terminal.
The LNG Project, which is led by Marathon and includes Mitsui, Marubeni and state gas
company Sonagas, is due for completion in the third quarter of 2007, with an initial
capacity of 0.5 bn cfd. Additions to capacity are being considered to handle gas from
Equatorial Guinea and possibly from neighbouring countries.
The gas for the first stage will come from the Alba field, but the government wants
associated gas that is currently flared on ExxonMobil’s Zafiro oilfield to be piped to the
new LNG terminal. Some 190 mn cfd of gas is flared at present, according to the
country’s Ministry of Mines, Industry and Energy.
Gabon
Gabon has a small gas production based on its reserves of 1.2 trillion cf. Output is in the
region of 0.1 bn cfd. A small local market exists, based mainly on electricity generation
and some heavy industry. Some gas is also reinjected into the Rabi-Kounga oilfield.
There are plans to make further use of gas in the industrial sector, but production is
unlikely to rise by very much over the coming years.
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Ghana
Proven reserves of 840 bn cf and plans to liberalize the country’s petroleum licensing
regime are beginning to arouse outside interest in both oil and gas in Ghana. Plans to
reduce the share of unreliable hydro-electricity in the country’s energy balance may
stimulate further interest in exploration for gas, which is emerging as the fuel of choice
for future electricity generating plants. Despite this, gas production is unlikely to be
more than 0.1 bn cfd by 2015.
Outlook for Natural Gas to 2015
Any increase in West Africa’s gas production between now and 2015 will be driven
largely by LNG exports. Nigeria will remain the largest producer and exporter but will
have been joined by Equatorial Guinea as an LNG exporter by then and, possibly even by
Angola.
Some 11.2 bn cfd of LNG export capacity is planned for the region by 2015 (see
Table 8), though not all of it may be built by then. At least one of the proposed Nigerian
schemes may be delayed beyond that date.
Table 8
West Africa: LNG Capacity, 2005 & 2015
Country Capacity
(bn cfd)
2005 2015 Change
Nigeria 2.3 10.0 7.7
Equatorial Guinea — 0.5 0.5
Angola — 0.7 0.7
Total 2.3 11.2 8.9
Totals rounded
Source: See text
Given the uncertainties expressed above, it is difficult to forecast West African gas
production with any degree of accuracy. Provided the situation in Nigeria’s oil and gas-
producing regions does not get totally out of hand, it is likely that Nigeria will more than
double its output by 2015. Production of 7.0 bn cfd appears possible. Angola and
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Equatorial Guinea may between them account for a further 1.2 bn cfd with perhaps a
further 0.3 bn cfd from other parts of the region (see Table 9).
Table 9
West Africa: Gas Production 2005 and 2015
Country Production
(bn cfd)
2005 2015 Change
Nigeria 2.1 7.0 4.9
Angola 0.7
Equatorial Guinea 0.2 0.5 1.3
Others 0.3
Total 2.3 8.5 6.2
Source: GER Forecast
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Gas to Liquids
Small amounts of liquids produced from the synthesis of natural gas in the gas-to-liquids
(GTL) process may be available from West Africa by 2015. Several schemes have been
proposed, notably in Nigeria.
A project to produce 34,000 bpd of GTL naphtha, diesel and LPG is under way at
Escravos in Nigeria. It will use about 300 mn cfd of gas that is at present flared. The
prime mover behind the Escravos project is Chevron. Other companies interested in
developing GTL in Nigeria are South Africa’s Sasol and Syntroleum of the US, both of
which have developed processing technology for GTL.
GTL could provide a useful way of monetizing small and isolated gas deposits in the
absence of any gas transmission network. Nigeria could well have production in the
region of 100,000 bpd by 2015, and a similar amount may be produced elsewhere in the
region by then.