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TornYemenbleedsinSaudiIranianproxywarAFP|Mar16,2015|22:51

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AYemeniprotesterholdsaportraitofAhmedAliAbdullahSaleh,thesonofYemensformerpresidentAliAbdullahSalehwhosteppeddowninearly2012,duringademonstrationonMarch13,demandinghimtorulethecountryinthecapitalSanaa(AFPphoto)

DUBAITornbetweenanorthcontrolledbyShiiterebelsandasouthdominatedbytheembattledpresident'sallies,YemenismiredinaproxywarbetweenIranandSaudiArabia,analystssay.

ThestrugglethreatenstopushtheimpoverishedArabianPeninsulastatefurthertowardstheabyssastheSunniShiitesectariandividegrowswider.

Amidthechaos,AlQaedamilitantsareclosingrankswithtribesoffellowSunniMuslimstocountertheexpansionoftheShiiteHouthirebels.

Inanunprecedentedshowofforce,theIranbackedHouthis,whooverranthecapitalSanaaunopposedinSeptember,lastweekstagedmilitaryexercisesneartheborderwithSunniheavyweightSaudiArabia.

"InthefaceofIran'sShiiteexpansionism,Sunnisolidarityisbuilding,ledbySaudiArabia,"onediplomatwhorequestedanonymitytoldAFP.

ThekingdomtothenorthhasalwaysplayedaprominentroleinYemenipolitics.

IthostednegotiationsthathelpedendayearofdeadlynationwideprotestsandledtoadealthateasedoutpresidentAliAbdullahSalehin2012.

AndfollowingarequestbyPresidentAbedrabboMansourHadi,RiyadhisagainpoisedtobrokertalksaimedatendingYemenslatestpoliticalimpasse.

WhenHadifledHouthiimposedhousearrestinSanaainFebruaryandresurfacedinAden,SaudiArabiawasthefirstcountrytotransferitsembassythere,inanopendisplayofsupportforthebeleagueredleader.

Tehranwarning

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TehranhasopenlydenouncedmovestomakethesouthernportYemenstemporarycapital.

SanaaistheofficialandhistoricalcapitalofYemenandthoseinAdenwhobackdisintegrationorcivilwarareresponsiblefortheconsequences,IransdeputyforeignministerHosseinAmirAbdollahiansaidlastweek.

HechargedthatHadi,whooncehereachedAdenretractedaresignationtenderedunderduressinSanaa,wouldhavedonebettertostayinSanaaandkeeptohisresignationletterandnotleadthecountryintocrisis.

AprilLongleyAlley,YemenspecialistattheInternationalCrisisGroup,arguesthatTehranhasreceivedahugepoliticalreturnforverylittleinvestment.

AsSaudiArabiahardensitsstanceagainsttheHouthisandseekstorollbacktheirgains,theHouthisarelikelytoseekclosertieswithcountrieslikeIran,shesaid.

ThisTehranRiyadhstruggleisbothcomplicatingandamplifyingconflictinYemen,shesaid.

SaudiArabiafearsthattheHouthis,whosweptdownfromthenorthandexpandedtheareatheycontroltotheshoresoftheRedSea,nowhavetheirsightssetonthestrategicBabAlMandabstrait.

ThiswouldgiveIranproxycontroloverthekeywaterwaytoandfromtheSuezCanal,addingtoitsalreadystrongpresenceintheGulfsStraitofHormuzthroughwhichmuchoftheworldsoilpasses.

Saudiswitch

FearingtheriseofextremistSunniIslamists,especiallytheMuslimBrotherhood,RiyadhstoppedbackingYemensAlIslah(Reform)Party,thusgivingtheHouthistheupperhand,accordingtoLinaKhatib,directoroftheCarnegieMiddleEastCentre.

AtonepointSaudiArabiafavouredaHouthidomination[alongtheborder]insteadoftheMuslimBrotherhood.ItsroleinYementhendiminished,encouragingtheHouthistoadvancesouthandseizelargeamountsofterritorywithinweeks,shesaid.

TheHouthirunSabanewsagencyreportedonThursdaythatIranwillprovideYemenwithcrudeoilforoneyear,andalsoestablisha165megawattpowerplant.

TheagreementwasmadeduringaHouthivisittotheIslamicrepublicafteranIraniancommercialflightlandedinSanaaonMarch1thefirstinmanyyearsandthefruitofanaviationaccordwithTehran.

TheHouthisinsistthatIrandoesnotmeddleinYemeniaffairs.

Wevesaiditclearly:werejectallinterferenceinourinternalaffairs,whetherfromSaudiArabia,IranortheUnitedStates,HouthispokesmanMohammedAbdulsalamtoldAFP.

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HeaccusedSaudiArabiaofseekingtocreatechaosinYemen.

TheriskofcivilwarorpartitioninYemenisincreasinglyraisedinpoliticalcircles,Khatibsaid.

MohammadSadehSadqian,headoftheCentreforArabStudiesinTehran,warnedthattheSaudiIranstruggleforinfluence,alreadyclearinIraqandSyria,couldhaveconsequenceselsewhere.

ThestrugglecouldengulfothercountriesifRiyadhandTehrandonotsitaroundonetableanddiscussopenlyallpointsofdispute,hesaid.