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In an unprecedented show of force, the Iran-backed Houthis, who overran the capital Sanaa unopposed in September, last week staged military exercises near the border with Sunni-heavyweight Saudi Arabia.
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19/04/2015 jordantimes.com/print.html
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TornYemenbleedsinSaudiIranianproxywarAFP|Mar16,2015|22:51
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AYemeniprotesterholdsaportraitofAhmedAliAbdullahSaleh,thesonofYemensformerpresidentAliAbdullahSalehwhosteppeddowninearly2012,duringademonstrationonMarch13,demandinghimtorulethecountryinthecapitalSanaa(AFPphoto)
DUBAITornbetweenanorthcontrolledbyShiiterebelsandasouthdominatedbytheembattledpresident'sallies,YemenismiredinaproxywarbetweenIranandSaudiArabia,analystssay.
ThestrugglethreatenstopushtheimpoverishedArabianPeninsulastatefurthertowardstheabyssastheSunniShiitesectariandividegrowswider.
Amidthechaos,AlQaedamilitantsareclosingrankswithtribesoffellowSunniMuslimstocountertheexpansionoftheShiiteHouthirebels.
Inanunprecedentedshowofforce,theIranbackedHouthis,whooverranthecapitalSanaaunopposedinSeptember,lastweekstagedmilitaryexercisesneartheborderwithSunniheavyweightSaudiArabia.
"InthefaceofIran'sShiiteexpansionism,Sunnisolidarityisbuilding,ledbySaudiArabia,"onediplomatwhorequestedanonymitytoldAFP.
ThekingdomtothenorthhasalwaysplayedaprominentroleinYemenipolitics.
IthostednegotiationsthathelpedendayearofdeadlynationwideprotestsandledtoadealthateasedoutpresidentAliAbdullahSalehin2012.
AndfollowingarequestbyPresidentAbedrabboMansourHadi,RiyadhisagainpoisedtobrokertalksaimedatendingYemenslatestpoliticalimpasse.
WhenHadifledHouthiimposedhousearrestinSanaainFebruaryandresurfacedinAden,SaudiArabiawasthefirstcountrytotransferitsembassythere,inanopendisplayofsupportforthebeleagueredleader.
Tehranwarning
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TehranhasopenlydenouncedmovestomakethesouthernportYemenstemporarycapital.
SanaaistheofficialandhistoricalcapitalofYemenandthoseinAdenwhobackdisintegrationorcivilwarareresponsiblefortheconsequences,IransdeputyforeignministerHosseinAmirAbdollahiansaidlastweek.
HechargedthatHadi,whooncehereachedAdenretractedaresignationtenderedunderduressinSanaa,wouldhavedonebettertostayinSanaaandkeeptohisresignationletterandnotleadthecountryintocrisis.
AprilLongleyAlley,YemenspecialistattheInternationalCrisisGroup,arguesthatTehranhasreceivedahugepoliticalreturnforverylittleinvestment.
AsSaudiArabiahardensitsstanceagainsttheHouthisandseekstorollbacktheirgains,theHouthisarelikelytoseekclosertieswithcountrieslikeIran,shesaid.
ThisTehranRiyadhstruggleisbothcomplicatingandamplifyingconflictinYemen,shesaid.
SaudiArabiafearsthattheHouthis,whosweptdownfromthenorthandexpandedtheareatheycontroltotheshoresoftheRedSea,nowhavetheirsightssetonthestrategicBabAlMandabstrait.
ThiswouldgiveIranproxycontroloverthekeywaterwaytoandfromtheSuezCanal,addingtoitsalreadystrongpresenceintheGulfsStraitofHormuzthroughwhichmuchoftheworldsoilpasses.
Saudiswitch
FearingtheriseofextremistSunniIslamists,especiallytheMuslimBrotherhood,RiyadhstoppedbackingYemensAlIslah(Reform)Party,thusgivingtheHouthistheupperhand,accordingtoLinaKhatib,directoroftheCarnegieMiddleEastCentre.
AtonepointSaudiArabiafavouredaHouthidomination[alongtheborder]insteadoftheMuslimBrotherhood.ItsroleinYementhendiminished,encouragingtheHouthistoadvancesouthandseizelargeamountsofterritorywithinweeks,shesaid.
TheHouthirunSabanewsagencyreportedonThursdaythatIranwillprovideYemenwithcrudeoilforoneyear,andalsoestablisha165megawattpowerplant.
TheagreementwasmadeduringaHouthivisittotheIslamicrepublicafteranIraniancommercialflightlandedinSanaaonMarch1thefirstinmanyyearsandthefruitofanaviationaccordwithTehran.
TheHouthisinsistthatIrandoesnotmeddleinYemeniaffairs.
Wevesaiditclearly:werejectallinterferenceinourinternalaffairs,whetherfromSaudiArabia,IranortheUnitedStates,HouthispokesmanMohammedAbdulsalamtoldAFP.
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HeaccusedSaudiArabiaofseekingtocreatechaosinYemen.
TheriskofcivilwarorpartitioninYemenisincreasinglyraisedinpoliticalcircles,Khatibsaid.
MohammadSadehSadqian,headoftheCentreforArabStudiesinTehran,warnedthattheSaudiIranstruggleforinfluence,alreadyclearinIraqandSyria,couldhaveconsequenceselsewhere.
ThestrugglecouldengulfothercountriesifRiyadhandTehrandonotsitaroundonetableanddiscussopenlyallpointsofdispute,hesaid.