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TOP10GLOBAL TRENDS
Affecting DowntownsAND HOW TO Respond
at Home
Brad Segal, Progressive Urban Management Associateswww.pumaworldhq.com
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“As we look deeper into the 21 st century, the name of the game has changed
Instead of isolation, we are faced with the pressing reality of a single, rapidly
evolving, global and multiethnic culture. Connections and relationships
cannot be ignored, because what happens in one part of the world, whether
economic, political, cultural or environmental, affects all other parts.”
Loheed& Brooks“New Places for a New Age”Urban Land
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS Affecting Downtowns
Demographics
1. Changing Demographics
2. Immigration Trends
3. Changes Within the
“ Creative Class”
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TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS Affecting Downtowns
Lifestyles
4. Traffic Congestion & Value of Time
5. Trends in Health Care, Wellness
& Recreation
6. Growth of Tourism
7. America’s (and Australia’s)
Growing Debt Burden
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS Affecting Downtowns
Global Competition & Change
8. Emergence of China, India &a Planetary Middle Class
9. Continued Advances in
Technology
10. Environmentalism,
Sustainabili ty &Climate Change
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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1. Changing American Demographics
“Baby Boom” 77 million born 1946 to 1964
Sheer numbers support labor markets,
entitlements College education rates increase 5x
Shaped by suburbia, Cold War & Civil
Rights era
Living longer, healthier
Unprecedented wealth, to shift to next
generation
Empty nest market looking to downsize,
urbanize?GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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1. Changing American Demographics
“Generation X” 44 million born 1961 to 1981
Cynical about the future, bitter toward
baby boomers
Shaped by information age –
ability to multi-task & transfer skills
enhances marketability in job market Value lifestyle over company loyalty
Discretionary spenders, homebuyersat earlier age
Majority now have children
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1. Changing American Demographics
“Millennials” 70 million born 1977 to 2003 Growing up with technology –
multi-taskers
More optimistic, tolerant andopen-minded
Multi-cultural – in majority of 100
largest U.S. cities, more than half under age 15 are racial and ethnic
minorities
Spirit of volunteerism and passionto foster change
Millennials voted 2:1 for Obama
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2. Immigration Trends
U.S. & Australia only major growing industrial countries,due mostly to immigration
Only 5 countries welcome immigrantsas permanent residents: U.S., Canada,
Australia, New Zealand & Israel
85% of U.S. immigrants from Latin America or Asia
25% of Australians were born overseas
U.S. shift away from traditional urbangateways to suburbs & rural areas
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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3. Changes Within the “ Creative Class”
Richard Florida’s “creatives” attracted to diverse, tolerant,innovative and vibrant environments…
Sydney & Melbourne rank 4th on Florida’s
scale, comparable to Boston & Seattle Millennials to replenish creative class
Growing importance of well-educated
young women-60% of US college enrollment by 2013
-Majority of US workforce by 2010
Women as agents of geopolitical change
-Greater importance on health care, the
environment and economic development
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4. Traffic Congestion and the Value of Time
Auto dependency increasingly costly in time and money
Worsening traffic congestion cost Americans $87 billion in 2007,
36 hours in average annual delays
In Australia, $9.4 billion in 2005
Additional road capacity doing little
to stem congestion
U.S. transit growth has exceeded driving
growth since 1996
Avoiding congestion a motivation forurban living?
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5. Trends in Healthcare and Wellness
Demand for services increasing, supply decreasing… Declining hospital use and stays for cost containment
Nearly 50 million U.S. uninsured adding to cost burden
13.7% U.S. GDP vs. 8.5% Australia GDP
More reliance on outpatient, “retail”
and e-medicine Shortage of doctors and nurses
projected in U.S., but Australia, N.Z.
and Canada lead recruitment Urban form and health –more obesity
in suburbs, majority of Americans
would like to walk and bike moreGLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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6. Growth of Tourism
An international growth market…
Tourism is world’s largest employer – 200 million jobs
Australia ranked #8, N.Z. #36, as international tourism destinations by $$
Expanding global middle class will
increase tourism
Cultural heritage tourism growing.Visitors stay longer, spend more
Convention center space
increasing, demand limited by
industry consolidations, e-business
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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7. America’s (and Australia’s) Growing Debt Burden
Debt looms as a dark economic cloud…
US national debt $38+K, Mortgage debt $40K & Consumer debt $8.5K per capita
Australia national debt nearing $9K per capita Debt to GDP rankings: U.K., U.S., Australia
Nearly 33% of Americans live pay check to pay check
vs. 7% of consumers in China, India and Mexico In 1950, 16 workers for each social security recipient;
By 2030, 2 workers for each eligible recipient
Pre-recession economic expansion saw savings ratesdecline from 7.5% of income to below zero, now about 4.0%
Nearly half of U.S. national debt held by foreign countries
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8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary
Middle Class
“We are at the dawn of the post-U.S. century”.
Edward M. Casal, Urban Land, August 2008
The World’s Largest Economies 1850 to 2050
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
1850 1950 2009 2050
China United States United States China
India United Kingdom Japan United States
United Kingdom Germany China India
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8. The Emergence of China, India and a PlanetaryMiddle Class
In 2007 China consumed 34% ofglobal steel and 50% of cement
2006 construction in Shanghai =
Existing NYC office market
Billionaires in China –15 in 2006,
106 in 2007
Country with largest number ofEnglish speakers by 2010? India
Growing global middle class creates
markets for U.S. goods “Innovation trumps brawn”
Income disparities continue tocreate instability, foster terrorism
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9. Continued Advances in Technology
Areas where technology will have the largest impact:
Health, biotechnology (genomics,
bioinformatics, augmentation)
Alternative sources of energy
Nanotechnology (engineering on
a molecular scale)
Quality of life enhancements –
accessing information andentertainment through e-portals
New channels for doing business
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
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9. Continued Advances in Technology
Technology and business… “World is Flat” = globalization to be driven
by individuals
Nearly 1.5 billion now online, 2.0 billionexpected by 2011
“Uploading” –Bottom-up creation
of culture, knowledge & innovation
E-commerce increasing, but less than
3% of total retail sales
Cities compete with increasing personal
mobility and living options
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10. Environmentalism and Sustainabil ity
A rapidly urbanizing world… Majority of planet now lives in cities
Today 3 billion –6 billion by 2050
Autos in China…
1 million in 1995
125 million today
Exceed US by 2030
At recent growth rates, number of vehicles
and global energy consumption could more
than double by 2030
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10. Environmentalism and Sustainabil ity
A rapidly urbanizing world… U.S. transportation system 97%
dependent on petroleum fuels
U.S. buildings consume 36% of
total energy, 65% of electricity
Half of American homes projectedby 2030 do not yet exist
U.S. cities launching green building
and sustainability initiatives –San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago
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Conclusions
Overall, trends favorable forvibrant downtowns?
Population growing, younger &older, more diverse
Increasingly connected &
competitive world
Resource-intensive lifestyles
increasingly expensive andnot sustainable
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Conclusions
Warning signs that could impede new investment…
Global disparities create continued
instability
American debt burden on collision
course with aging demographicsand global inflationary pressures
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Conclusions
Wild cards that can affect long-range projections…
Leaders and their ideas matter
Economic volatility introduces a
major risk factor
Geopolitical rivalries triggerdiscontinuities more thandoes technological change
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
US National Intelligence Council, Nov 2008
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Implications for Downtowns
Demographics…
Welcome younger, multi-cultural
populations
Create an environment that appeals
to young women
Keep the talent pool as they age Diverse price points needed
for housing
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
I l i ti f D t
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Implications for Downtowns
Lifestyles…
Implement comprehensive transit strategies
Offer affordable & accessible health care Foster education
Offer stimulating, multi-dimensional
experiences
Walkability and active recreation
Tourism infrastructure –growinginternational clientele
GLOBAL TRENDS 2009
I l i ti f D t
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Implications for Downtowns
Global Competition & Change…
Entrepreneurship continues to
be the key to job growth
Adaptive reuse more affordable
as construction costs rise
Lead sustainability efforts
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TOP10GLOBAL TRENDS
Affecting DowntownsAND HOW TO Respond
at Home
Brad Segal, Progressive Urban Management Associates
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TOP10GLOBAL TRENDS
Affecting DowntownsAND HOW TO Respond
at Home
Brad Segal, Progressive Urban Management Associateswww.pumaworldhq.com